Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated for aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
215 am EDT Monday may 25 2015
convection over Alabama looks like it will remain there for most
of the overnight period as strong cape gradient exists with our
area being on the limited instability side. There will be however
a rapid increase in low level moisture overnight. With easterly
winds remaining elevated...expect mainly low clouds and limited
fog potential. Current forecast handles this well and no changes
Previous discussion... /issued 751 PM EDT sun may 24 2015/
Previous discussion... /issued 401 PM EDT sun may 24 2015/
Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
models in pretty good agreement with the next system to bring precipitation
to the County Warning Area. The 500 mb ridge that has been over the County Warning Area will shift to
our east putting the County Warning Area in a southwest flow. This will allow a
short wave to move into Alabama Monday and into western/northern Georgia Monday night.
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will move into the County Warning Area Monday
morning and become a little more widespread Monday afternoon and
night...especially across the western and northern parts of the County Warning Area.
With additional cloud cover and convection...maximum temperatures on Monday
will be a little cooler than today over most areas.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
southwest flow still expected to be dominant pattern through the
long term period. Warm front starting to lift north Monday will
have fairly widespread convection continuing Tuesday. Have kept or
even increased area of likely probability of precipitation over northwest 2/3rds of County Warning Area
Tuesday...Tuesday night and Wednesday. Small decrease in coverage of
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain expected after Thursday afternoon as flow aloft weakens
and favorable moisture trajectory...depth and areal coverage
decreases. Fairly high agreement between medium range models and good
consistency with neighboring National Weather Service office forecasts.
Hard to find things to focus on with such a stagnant
pattern...though did see total rainfall Monday through Thursday now pushing
2 to 2.5 inches. Will have to continue to watch rainfall forecasts.
Previous long term discussion /Monday night through Saturday/...
/issued 311 am EDT sun may 24 2015/ south-southwest flow aloft will be over
the area to start the long term with significant deeper moisture.
Upper level shortwaves will affect north and portions of central
Georgia...with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday. Showers and storms will have some diurnal tendency but
not exclusively. Due to the position of the upper ridge over the
west Atlantic...the best chances of showers and storms will be
over north and West Georgia.
A ridge aloft builds some on Friday and continues Saturday and should
allow for a much more diurnal tendency to the showers and storms.
For the most part...temperatures will be within 5 degrees of normal
through the period.
increasing low level moisture will allow for MVFR conditions over
most areas by 08z and and then IFR by 11z. Slow improvement
through today and 15z might be a little early on MVFR improvement.
Showers and a few thunderstorms in western Alabama currently. Look for
a gradual development of convection into western Georgia this morning with
showers and thunderstorms spreading eastward through the day.
Winds should remain east to southeast 10kt or less.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium on MVFR/IFR timing.
High on remaining elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 62 82 67 82 / 10 40 40 60
Atlanta 66 80 68 81 / 10 50 50 70
Blairsville 59 73 64 76 / 10 60 60 70
Cartersville 65 80 68 81 / 10 60 60 70
Columbus 69 86 70 84 / 20 50 50 60
Gainesville 63 77 66 79 / 10 50 50 70
Macon 66 86 68 86 / 10 50 30 50
Rome 65 79 68 81 / 10 60 60 70
Peachtree City 66 81 67 82 / 10 50 50 60
Vidalia 69 89 70 88 / 10 30 20 20