Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
135 am EST Friday Feb 12 2016
Previous discussion... /issued 729 PM EST Thursday Feb 11 2016/
Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
main concern is another short wave and surge of moisture in the
fast upper flow that could caused scattered flurries over mainly the
mountains counties. Flurries mean little or no accumulation.
The disturbance is fast moving and the most likely time for flurries
is about 09-15z.
Otherwise clouds will be on the increase tonight and decrease late Friday
and Friday night. Winds will increase some late Friday into Friday night
as the gradient from surface high pressure over the middle U.S. Moves over
the forecast area.
Forecast low temperatures running near normal tonight at csg and mcn
and 2-5 degrees below normal at atl and ahn. Forecast low temperatures
running 4-9 degrees below normal Friday night.
Forecast high temperatures running 2-3 degrees above normal Friday at
csg/mcn and near to 4 degrees below normal at atl/ahn.
Overall confidence is medium.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
Saturday through Tuesday...
the long term period starts our cold and dry as a cold dome of
Canadian high pressure pushes into the upper MS valley region on
Saturday and drifts east to the New England sea board by late
Sunday. This feature will begin to nose down the east side of the
Appalachians Sunday evening and establish a strong wedge of cold air
nosing into north and parts of central Georgia by Sunday night-Monday
morning. At this same time... models show fairly good agreement with
a strong upper disturbance kicking east of the plains and spreading
Gulf moisture over the cold wedge near the surface... and setting
the stage for wintry precipitation event that begins early Monday morning
and continues through Tuesday. Although there is still much
uncertainty on timing and wintry precipitation amounts... the scenario does
support a chance for periods of rain... snow... sleet and/or
freezing rain across much of north and possibly parts of central
Georgia from early Monday morning through mainly Tuesday evening.
All interest are encouraged to stay tuned to the latest forecast
and updates for this potentially hazardous wintry weather event
for early next week.
Tuesday night through Thursday...
no major changes planned. Have added a few flurries to Tuesday
night due to residual moisture behind the Monday/Tuesday system.
No accumulation is expected with the flurries. 500 mb trough shifts
rapidly east putting the County Warning Area in a dry and westnorthwest flow with
a rapid rebound in afternoon temperatures by middle week with temperatures going
above normal in most areas.
expecting low end VFR to possible MVFR ceilings into Friday middle
morning for most sites /slightly sooner for southern sites/. A
weak disturbance should keep some of the ceilings lingering more
across the northern sites into Friday though all areas should lift
and scatter out by about 18-21z. Initial light NE winds for katl
and calm elsewhere should become west-northwest near 7 kts after 18z and
increase with some 18-22 knots gusts for late afternoon into the
overnight with clearing skies as a strong high pressure builds in
from the north.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium on ceilings.
High on all else.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 53 28 43 22 / 10 0 0 5
Atlanta 56 29 40 23 / 5 0 0 5
Blairsville 47 21 31 15 / 10 5 0 0
Cartersville 54 26 37 20 / 5 0 0 5
Columbus 64 35 47 26 / 5 0 0 0
Gainesville 50 27 37 21 / 10 0 0 5
Macon 63 33 47 24 / 5 0 0 0
Rome 55 26 37 20 / 5 0 0 5
Peachtree City 59 29 41 22 / 5 0 0 0
Vidalia 65 38 51 28 / 10 0 0 0