Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
707 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015
Previous discussion... /issued 421 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015/
Short term /today through Saturday/...
models in good agreement although there a slight differences in quantitative precipitation forecast
and moisture depth. However all agree scattered showers will spread
into extreme north Georgia ahead of the cold front this morning...then
across the rest of the County Warning Area this afternoon and tonight. There is some
instability this afternoon through Saturday and will need to keep
isolated thunder in the grids. The moisture will not be quick to
leave as the short wave develops into a closed low and hangs around
the Georgia coast on Saturday...however there should be a slow decrease
in precipitation from west to east Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be
close to persistence today...and slight cooler on Saturday. Guidance
has a good handle on this and have made only slight adjustments on
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
models are in good agreement in the long term. They start out
by showing the frontal system in the short term exiting the southeast
corner of the state Sat night/Sunday morning. Still keeping in a
slight chance of precipitation Sunday morning but this system is expected
to push off the Georgia coast by day break. There will be a break in
the chance of precipitation before next frontal system enters the area
Tuesday. This second front is much weaker and drier and not expecting
much more than a chance of precipitation with this front across the County Warning Area.
Instabilities are very weak as it moves through so keeping mostly
showers in the forecast. This second front begins entering northwest Georgia
between 06z and 12z Tuesday. This front pushes quickly through the
state as a large high pressure center behind it pushes east. This
front will be east of the state by 06z Wednesday as this high pressure
ridge becomes centered over the western Gulf Coast states by
12-18z Wednesday. This ridge is expected to dominate the weather
pattern through the end of next week.
no major changes from the previous forecast. IFR ceilings and dense
fog have developed in the mcn but there should be rapid
improvement this morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions are expected
through this evening. Isolated showers will move into the atl/ahn
areas this evening...becoming more widespread around 06z. These
showers will spread into csg/mcn later this evening and late
tonight. The rain will end from the northwest Saturday morning.
There is a risk of thunderstorms and rain but the risk is too low to add to the tafs
at this time.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
medium on ceilings and timing of precipitation
high on remaining elements
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 82 63 73 54 / 30 60 50 10
Atlanta 81 64 74 57 / 30 60 40 0
Blairsville 75 59 70 51 / 60 70 30 10
Cartersville 79 63 77 53 / 50 70 30 0
Columbus 84 64 80 58 / 20 50 40 0
Gainesville 78 63 70 54 / 40 70 40 10
Macon 85 65 78 57 / 20 50 60 5
Rome 79 62 77 52 / 60 70 30 0
Peachtree City 81 64 78 55 / 30 50 40 0
Vidalia 84 68 80 59 / 20 60 60 20
dense fog advisory until 10 am EDT this morning for the
following zones: Bleckley...crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...