Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
338 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
an upper low continues over the southern la coast. At the
surface...a cold front extends from the eastern Great Lakes back
through the Ohio Valley to the Central Plains. In addition...a
surface trough has formed across northern Georgia.
Scattered showers have developed along the surface trough across
northern Georgia this afternoon. Thunder has been more isolated...but
chances will continue through the evening. Activity will eventually
diminish later this evening with the loss of heating.
Cold front across the Ohio Valley will move south overnight and
approach north Georgia by sunrise on Thursday. The front will move
through the majority of the County warning forecast area tomorrow...before settling across
southern Georgia. Forcing and instability will be enough for
thunderstorms...but widespread severe weather is not expected.
Storms will have the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
minor adjustments made to probability of precipitation for Monday and Tuesday based on
latest trends with rather strong frontal passage for late July. Strong to
severe storm potential will continue to be closely monitored as
this system looks to have decent shear Monday afternoon into
evening...though timing and evolution of system may still vary
this far out in the forecast and could influence available
instability. Otherwise trended a bit cooler temperatures in Post frontal
regime Tuesday night and Wednesday. Previous discussion
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
/issued at 503 am EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014/
active pattern is expected to continue through the extended
periods with several features impacting the area...but models are
in better agreement with showing relatively quiet periods in
between. Have actually decreased probability of precipitation slightly Friday and into the
weekend behind the aforementioned front. Although several models
push the front through the entire County Warning Area by Saturday...there is still
some uncertainty regarding the position of the front and
associated moisture across south Georgia. As a result...have
continued mention of chance probability of precipitation across the far south and
southeast County Warning Area on Saturday. Moisture returns to the area Sunday as
next shortwave approaches and longwave trough starts to set up
over the eastern United States. Chance probability of precipitation Sunday continue into
early week and then exit quickly late Monday as second front
pushes through. Longwave trough maintains its position over the
eastern U.S. Through middle week...and with surface high across the
area behind the front...lower precipitation chances and cooler
temperatures are in store.
In general...expect a slight warming trend over the weekend...then
back to near normal or slightly below normal temperatures with the
second front early next week.
scattered showers have developed across northern Georgia this
afternoon. Better coverage should be up to the north...but enough
confidence that there will be enough cells in the vicinity of atl.
Models are not progging IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight. Do think that
there will be enough low level moisture for some scattered MVFR ceilings
though. A cold front will move through on Thursday...with better
coverage of precipitation.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
high confidence all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 72 87 71 90 / 20 60 30 10
Atlanta 72 85 70 87 / 20 60 30 10
Blairsville 67 78 63 83 / 30 60 20 10
Cartersville 71 84 68 87 / 30 60 20 10
Columbus 73 90 73 90 / 20 60 30 20
Gainesville 70 84 68 86 / 20 60 20 10
Macon 73 91 72 90 / 20 60 30 30
Rome 71 84 67 88 / 30 60 20 10
Peachtree City 71 87 69 88 / 20 60 30 20
Vidalia 76 94 75 92 / 20 60 40 30