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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
123 am EDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015




Previous discussion... /issued 858 PM EDT Monday Mar 30 2015/

Update...
no major changes to the forecast. Skies have pretty much cleared.
Forecast low temperatures running near to 5 degrees below normal.

Bdl

Previous discussion... /issued 705 PM EDT Monday Mar 30 2015/

Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
upper short wave has dropped south of the forecast area and
overnight should be dry. However...next short wave in the northwest
flow will begin affecting the area by morning. High resolution
models showing showers moving into the western zones generally
before 18z. So have introduced slight chance probability of precipitation across the west
around 15z and increased probability of precipitation across the area through the day. Probability of precipitation
diminishing Tuesday night as the wave weakens and sinks to the
south. Some Low Cape forecast with this short wave system so have
included thunder through the day Tuesday. Storm Prediction Center has much of the area
included in a marginal risk for severe. Looking at warmer
temperatures through the short term and have stayed close to
guidance numbers.

41

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
overall pattern shifts from northwest flow aloft to zonal through the long
term period...implying mild to warm days and very warm nights with
more clouds. Deep convection also more favored in this pattern
with strong flow aloft cant rule out severe storms on any day with
sufficient instability. Always important to keep in mind that severe
convection only requires ingredients be in place. Strong/deep
upper troughs to the west to provide large scale ascent is *not*
a necessary condition for severe storms! That said...most likely chance
for severe storms based on 12z model guidance this week are Tuesday
and Thursday. By Fri/Sat...even as more significant short wave
approaches...models indicating less low-level moisture and
instability available over Georgia. Better ingredients on Friday remain to
our west. Will continue to monitor model trends. Heavy rainfall
not expected with total amounts this week 1 inch or less. Guidance
blend remains good choice for temperatures best on recent verification.

Snelson




&&

Aviation...
06z update...
VFR conditions will persist through the night. An upper
disturbance will move through the region this afternoon...and some
isolated/scattered convection is possible. Models are producing some low
MVFR or IFR ceilings overnight. Not confident that ceilings will go
IFR...so will scattered low MVFR now.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
high confidence all elements.




&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 74 51 77 55 / 10 20 10 30
Atlanta 72 53 76 57 / 30 20 10 30
Blairsville 67 46 72 48 / 20 20 10 30
Cartersville 71 49 75 54 / 30 20 10 30
Columbus 76 56 79 58 / 40 30 30 30
Gainesville 70 51 75 54 / 20 20 10 30
Macon 75 54 78 56 / 30 20 20 30
Rome 71 49 76 54 / 40 20 10 30
Peachtree City 73 50 77 54 / 40 20 10 30
Vidalia 77 60 78 58 / 20 20 20 20

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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