Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion...updated for aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
145 PM EDT sun Apr 20 2014
updated to tweak cloud cover for today and also removed mention of
light rain from the east. Otherwise no changes.
Previous discussion... /issued 430 am EDT sun Apr 20 2014/
Short term /today through Monday/...
low pressure which has plagued the area the last couple of days
with cool and rainy conditions has finally shifted east off the
florid coast following the lead of stacked upper low which is in a
similar position. With dnva on back side of this feature as well
as reduced moisture convergence at the low levels...light rain has
abated with radar indicated only isolated coverage over
eastern zones. Although precipitation is greatly reduced...low level
moisture remains plentiful from La Grange to Athens with overcast
low cloud conditions to continue through daybreak.
Low level clouds will continue to decrease with what little precipitation
there is coming to an end. Should see at least some sun over all
locations by this afternoon but especially across the north and
will lean toward the warmer guidance for high temperatures.
Will be in between systems for Monday with upper level ridge
building slightly over the area along with plenty of dry air.
Should see a nice temperature recovery with aforementioned ridge
allowing for middle 70s across most areas.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
00z Monday...a shortwave over the plains states develops into a
closed low center and moves over the Great Lake states by 00z Tuesday.
Its trailing cold front sweeps through the Mississippi River
valley and into na Georgia by 12z Tuesday. Will see showers and
thunderstorms sweep through the state Tuesday and could see some
fairly strong storms as instability indices increase during the
day Tuesday. The latest model runs are showing a bit lees instability
than previous runs but still keeping thunder in the forecast.
Will have to keep a close eye on this as to just how much thunder
we will seen. This front should be east of the state by 00z to 06z
Wednesday with high pressure building back in for Wednesday and Thursday. Next
frontal system will begin to affect the area again by Friday as a
developing system moves east out of the MS River Valley. The models
are showing a bit more instability with the Friday system than the
Tuesday one but its showing there showing less available moisture.
Will have to monitor the situation to southeast how things develop
drier air spreading across the forecast area should keep skies clear
except the area csg to mcn. Expect some ceilings around 035-045 to
linger there until around 00z...then clearing. Winds remaining east
to northeast 10 to 15kt with some gusts to around 22kt until 00z
then diminishing to 10kt or less for the overnight. High pressure
building across the forecast area should turn winds to the west by
15z to 17z Monday.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
High on all elements...except medium to high on clouds dissipating
across central Georgia tonight.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 70 45 75 57 / 20 0 5 10
Atlanta 69 50 73 59 / 0 5 5 10
Blairsville 71 45 72 53 / 0 5 5 20
Cartersville 73 48 74 55 / 0 5 5 20
Columbus 71 49 77 59 / 0 5 5 10
Gainesville 69 48 73 58 / 0 5 0 20
Macon 65 45 77 55 / 10 0 5 5
Rome 74 47 75 56 / 0 5 5 30
Peachtree City 69 44 75 56 / 0 5 5 10
Vidalia 65 51 77 56 / 20 0 0 5