Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
940 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
only changes to forecast is to lower cloud amounts this evening.
Still have concerns as to how much cloud cover will develop and
how low they may be by morning. Have started to trend a bit more
optimistic...but expect more clouds tomorrow than this morning.
Updated forecasts out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 206 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
high pressure centered just off the New England coast with its axis
nosing down the eastern Seaboard continues to dominate the weather
pattern for Georgia. The ridge center is forecasted to continue moving
further offshore weaken its axis hold on the East Coast through the
next 48 hours. This ridge will also continue to keep the developing
frontal system covering the center of the country from moving
southeast into Georgia through the short term. This will keep things dry
for now. This ridge does keep Georgia in moist easterly flow so will see
increased low level clouds tonight and Friday. Temperatures have rebounded
back to or just above seasonal norms with lows tonight expected
mainly in the 50s and highs Friday in the 60s and 70s.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
no major changes planned for the long term. Previous long term
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
models keep delaying the onset of the rain as a ridge holds in
place aloft. The surface front stalls across the lower MS valley
as a couple of waves develop on it. High pressure over the
northeast begins to wedge into the state by the beginning of the
week. Models begin to differ by then as the GFS wants to bring the
surface front into north Georgia by Tuesday morning...while the European model (ecmwf)
holds it back until about Tuesday night. Wednesday will be dry
over much of the forecast area according to the European model (ecmwf)...but the
GFS wants to develop a low in the northwest Gulf and spread probability of precipitation
eastward across the southern states. The general trend looks okay
as this time to keep probability of precipitation extreme north Saturday night and
gradually spread the showers southward into the first of the week.
Have held on to low probability of precipitation into Wednesday as a compromise.
Aviation.../issued 653 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
VFR ceilings will slowly deteriorate to MVFR at taf sites...if low
level ceilings are able to develop. There is a small chance of few-scattered
IFR developing if lower ceilings develop. Winds will stay out of the
east at 5-10kts.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
low confidence in MVFR ceilings.
High confidence all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 62 49 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 62 50 66 50 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 61 48 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 64 50 66 47 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 68 54 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 60 49 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 68 52 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 65 50 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 64 49 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 71 54 72 51 / 5 0 0 0