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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
405 am EDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Short term /today through Wednesday/...
upper level ridge will continue to dominate the forecast area...
models are in good agreement in the short term period. The forecast
area continues in the western periphery of high pressure over the
Atlantic...which keeps light southeast to south flow across the
area. Increased Atlantic moisture will allow a few more clouds to
develop this afternoon and expect to see scattered-broken coverage this
afternoon of middle to high clouds. Weak vorticity maximum in the vicinity of
the NE mountains...will combine with orographic lift across the
mountain and will continue slight chance probability of precipitation there. Guidance
temperatures in good agreement and will not stray too far.

Atwell



Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
the European model (ecmwf) appears to be the most consistent on the development and
track of the coastal low from run to run by keeping the future
coastal low just off the Carolina coast before pulling it out to
sea early next week. As the upper ridge builds over the East
Coast...the coastal low will hang around the South Carolina coast
over the weekend. Then as the western trough shifts into the
plains...the coastal low will become caught in the upper flow and
head out to sea. Being on the back side of the coastal low usually
brings subsidence...ie dry weather...however the GFS is still
trying to bring in some moisture...so have kept low probability of precipitation over the
eastern parts of the County Warning Area through the weekend. As the upper trough
shifts into the plains...moisture will return as weak short waves
move across the southeast.

17



&&

Aviation...
06z update... VFR conditions will continue with afternoon cumulus
development. Expect sct060 with bkn090 possible for several hours.
Winds will stay southeast with 5-7kts expected this afternoon.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
high confidence all elements.

Atwell

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 82 56 83 58 / 5 10 5 0
Atlanta 80 58 82 58 / 5 5 5 5
Blairsville 78 51 79 56 / 20 20 20 5
Cartersville 82 55 82 55 / 0 5 5 5
Columbus 83 57 83 60 / 5 5 5 5
Gainesville 81 56 81 59 / 5 5 5 5
Macon 83 54 82 58 / 5 5 5 5
Rome 84 54 83 55 / 0 5 5 5
Peachtree City 81 53 82 57 / 5 5 5 5
Vidalia 83 59 83 61 / 5 5 0 0

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...Atwell
long term....17
aviation...Atwell

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