Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
802 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
weak boundary remains situated across northern Georgia this
evening...while high pressure remains centered across the Florida
Panhandle. The high center will continue to shift off to the east
Main forecast concerns for the overnight period is the increasing
high level cloudiness from the west and the effect the clouds will
have on the overnight lows. For now...the forecast is on
track...and have only had to make some very minor hourly tweaks.
However...if the clouds are thicker than anticipated min temperatures
will have to be adjusted.
Previous discussion... /issued 629 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2014/
Previous discussion... /issued 233 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2014/
Short term /tonight through Monday/...
pretty quiet through the short term with the main weather concern
being a weak front pushing through on Sunday. With each successive
run however...the front is looking even weaker so sensible weather
impacts across the area definitely look minimal. Nearly zonal flow
in place this afternoon with surface high pressure dominating the
southeast. Shortwave diving out of The Rockies this afternoon is
bringing showers to the Southern Plains...but the shortwave
significantly damps overnight taking one slug of moisture to our
north with the weakening shortwave and another slug remaining over
the Southern Plains and western Gulf as the lower end of the former
shortwave cuts off /only temporarily...it will come back and affect
US around midweek/.
So with that and the reduced amount of available moisture...have
backed off on probability of precipitation for tomorrow. Should see an increase in clouds as
the remnants of the front push in but should see no appreciable
change in thicknesses so temperatures should be very similar today...maybe
slightly warmer. Behind the shortwave...thicknesses increase
slightly again so temperatures on Monday will trend slightly warmer
especially with a little more sunshine expected.
Overall a very nice short term expected with above-normal
temperatures through the period...but with changes coming into the
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
no major changes were made to the extended periods as models
continue to show a fairly strong cold front pushing across the
area on Wednesday. Expecting mainly widespread showers with this
system due to lack of instabilities. However... this could change
if the driving upper disturbance strengthens in later model runs.
Behind the cold front... confidence is increasing that some areas
could see freezing temperatures both Thursday and Friday
mornings... which would threaten outdoor plants. Be prepared to
take precautions to protect sensitive plants.
Previous long term discussion... /issued 335 am EST Sat Mar 8 2014/
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
Spring Time weather looks to continue on Monday with forecast high
temperatures running about 6-10 degrees above normal.
The next weather system approaches on Tuesday as an upper trough
moving across the Gulf Coast region. European is faster moving
deep moisture over the area than the GFS and chance probability of precipitation seem
reasonable for the second half of the day for the western two
thirds of the area. Bulk of the precipitation chances moves across the
area Tuesday night associated with the upper trough. A cold front
moves across the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. The GFS is
much faster with the front than the European and some compromise
is probably reasonable as the parent low makes fast tracks for the
western Atlantic Wednesday night. Precipitation chances look to end
Wednesday night but could linger longer if the European is exactly
correct. Precipitation chances should be over for Thursday as a drier
airmass moves over the area and dry weather will continue on
Temperatures will be too warm for anything other than rain unless
precipitation chances continue late Wednesday night/Thursday morning when
temperatures will get cold enough over the far north to support a
rain/snow mix briefly. For now thinking significant precipitation chances
will have ended. Forecast instability appears to weak for any
thunderstorms at this time.
Temperatures will favor above normal until the front moves across
the area late Wednesday/Wednesday night and then below normal
temperatures for Thursday and Friday.
high pressure will continue across the region overnight. Model
soudnings do show some lingering moisture between 3-4kft
overnight...and will keep a sct035 deck. Diurnal cumulus expected
tomorrow...but bases should be slightly higher around 045-050.
Winds will continue west-northwest around 10 knots.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
high confidence all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 44 72 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 48 69 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 41 63 39 67 / 5 5 0 0
Cartersville 42 68 42 71 / 5 5 0 0
Columbus 47 73 49 74 / 0 0 0 5
Gainesville 46 67 46 70 / 0 5 0 0
Macon 44 74 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 42 68 41 71 / 5 5 0 5
Peachtree City 43 71 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 46 74 50 76 / 0 0 0 0