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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
552 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015



Update...
strong to severe storms over Alabama are moving into central and
south Georgia this afternoon. These storms are expected to
continue moving across the area through tonight. Have issues a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch through 1100 PM for areas along and south
of a Newnan to Stockbridge to Eatonton to Wrens. The biggest
threat with these storms will be strong gusty winds...periods of
heavy rain...and large hail. And isolated tornado or two could
also occur.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

.Another round of storms /possibly severe/ could develop late
this afternoon into evening...

Short term /tonight through Sunday night/...
north and central Georgia remain between the convection across the
northern Gulf...and the short wave expected to move through the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley overnight. Early morning showers and thunderstorms made
the forecast area more stable for much of the day and placement and
timing of any redevelopment has been uncertain. However
breaks in cloud cover and afternoon heating have allowed the air
mass to recover somewhat. Convection is developing across southern
Alabama and a few severe thunderstorms remain possible for north and
central Georgia into the evening. With coverage uncertain...have reduced
the overnight probability of precipitation to chance for now. Models show the Tennessee Valley
short wave dragging a frontal boundary southward into the state
Sunday...so have left in some slight chance probability of precipitation for the day. Sunday
night looks dry with northwest flow. Have stayed close to guidance
temperatures.

41

Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
only minor tweaks to probability of precipitation/weather for Tuesday and Thursday. Guidance
showing decently large discrepancies with low position and expanse
of moisture field with upper trough across southeast Continental U.S. Through
midweek. Have therefore kept mainly a persistence forecast.
Previous discussion follows...

Baker

Previous discussion... /issued 341 am EDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
weak ridging at the surface and mostly dry conditions to begin the long
term. Shortwave slides from the MS valley into the Tennessee Valley Tuesday
night into Wednesday while a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast.
This results in the return of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
night into Wednesday night. GFS is slower than model run last night
in clearing out the precipitation and holds onto it through Thursday
night. Although there are slight differences in features between the
GFS and the European model (ecmwf) the timing of diminishing precipitation is fairly
similar. High pressure builds in behind that system and should lead
to a few dry days.

11

Aviation...
18z update...
mostly VFR conditions this afternoon and evening...however some
redevelopment of convection is expected with possibly some storms
becoming severe. Some MVFR ceilings possible toward morning but
improving by 15z. Winds southwest 5 to 10kt with some gusts this
afternoon and evening. Winds becoming west to northwest toward the
end of the taf period.



//Atl confidence...18z update...
low confidence on when/where afternoon convection will occur.
Medium confidence remaining elements.

41

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 63 81 55 73 / 50 20 10 5
Atlanta 65 80 56 72 / 50 20 5 5
Blairsville 58 71 45 66 / 50 20 10 5
Cartersville 62 78 50 71 / 50 20 10 5
Columbus 67 85 60 78 / 50 20 5 10
Gainesville 63 77 54 70 / 50 20 5 5
Macon 67 85 58 76 / 50 20 5 5
Rome 62 77 50 70 / 50 20 5 5
Peachtree City 64 82 54 74 / 50 20 5 5
Vidalia 68 87 61 76 / 50 20 10 10

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...
Chattahoochee...Clayton...Coweta...Crawford...crisp...Dodge...
Dooly...Emanuel...Fayette...Glascock...Hancock...Harris...
heard...Henry...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...
Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Montgomery...Muscogee...Peach...Pike...Pulaski...Putnam...
Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taylor...
Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

Short term...deese
long term....01
aviation...deese

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