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Area forecast discussion...updated aviation 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
724 am EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Short term /today through Thursday/...
/issued at 411 am EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014/
latest surface analysis shows a nearly stationary cold front near a
La Grange to Milledgeville line. Regional radars show a few small
showers occasionally popping up along and south of the front... and
expect this trend to continue through at least the morning. The
front is proggd to sag south today as an upper short wave currently
over north MS traverses the state and provides the needed push.
Expect the front to push south of a Columbus to Macon line by middle to
late morning... then south of the forecast area by early afternoon.
Lack of deep layer moisture and instability will warrant showing
only a slight chance of showers across parts of central Georgia today for
areas along and south of the front. High pressure and a cool/dry
northerly flow will prevail tonight and Thursday... bringing a rain
free forecast to the area for the rest of the work week.

A cooler airmass will begin spreading in over the area today behind
the sagging front... resulting in near normal highs across north Georgia
today... then across both north and central Georgia by Thursday. Lows
tonight will be near or slightly cooler than normal for most areas.
A mav and met blend for temperatures looked reasonable through the period.


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
/issued at 411 am EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014/
the extended forecast starts out with the drier airmass over the
region and no precipitation. High pressure ridge over the state
will keep Georgia dry through at least Saturday/Sunday morning before
another frontal system moves into north Georgia Monday. Both the GFS
and European model (ecmwf) agree with the drier air mass and high pressure ridge
staying over the area through the weekend. As the next frontal system
moves into north Georgia the frontal boundary weakens a bit with the
majority of the moisture staying north and east of the state. Have
decided to only go with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across north Georgia Sunday afternoon and spreading the precipitation southward
Monday/Tuesday. Models also continue to indicate cooler temperatures in
store for the state...especially with the cooler drier air mass
moving in. Looking at high temperatures in the 70s and 80s through the
beginning of next week.



12z update...
a cold front near a csg to mcn line is drifting southward due to an
upper disturbance approaching from the west. The disturbance could
produce a few showers along and south of the front this morning...
but chances are too low to include in any tafs. Otherwise... some
MVFR level scattered clouds may push across atl this morning with the
disturbance... then expect mainly middle level scattered clouds during
afternoon heating today... only few amount on Thursday. Expect a northwest wind
around 8-10kts today... 3-5 kts tonight... then 6-8kts on Thursday with
winds possibly swinging around NE Thursday afternoon or evening.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
high on all elements.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 85 61 82 61 / 10 10 10 10
Atlanta 84 63 84 65 / 10 0 5 10
Blairsville 78 56 79 55 / 10 10 5 10
Cartersville 83 57 84 60 / 5 5 5 10
Columbus 90 63 87 66 / 10 5 5 10
Gainesville 83 62 82 62 / 10 5 5 10
Macon 90 62 86 63 / 10 5 5 10
Rome 84 57 86 59 / 5 5 5 10
Peachtree City 85 56 84 61 / 10 0 5 10
Vidalia 88 67 85 67 / 20 10 10 10


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...39
long term....01

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