Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
246 am EDT sun Aug 31 2014
Previous discussion... /issued 908 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014/
showers and storms still expected to diminish tonight. No major
changes to the forecast. Forecast low temperatures running close
Previous discussion... /issued 715 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014/
Short term /tonight through Sunday night/...
Overall pattern defined by strong upper high centered of the SC
coast. Upper trough currently over lower MS valley prognosticated to
flatten as it runs into the upper ridge. Westerlies should remain
north of the state with moisture trapped in the east-west oriented ridge
Primary concern in the short term is how widespread and intense
convection will be this afternoon and evening. In spite of MLCAPE
values around 2000 j/kg...only a few cells indicating much lightning
or substantial reflectivity aloft so far. Dcape values below 800 so
not expecting any significant wind threat. Will continue to
Models indicating less convection Sunday than today as upper ridge
axis remains entrenched. Could see thunderstorms and rain near sea breeze region in
far southern and southeastern counties as well as a few thunderstorms and rain along weak surface
boundary slipping across eastern Tennessee.
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
No changes to the long term. Upper ridge will continue to dominate
the pattern through the period. A couple of short waves should
pass mainly to the north of the forecast area. Previous discussion
is included below.
Long term /355 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2014/...
high pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to dominate
the weather through much of the extended portion of the forecast.
A middle level disturbance will impact mainly the northern portions
of the County warning forecast area Sunday evening...and have adjusted probability of precipitation accordingly.
The shear axis should weaken by Monday. Convection will return to
a more Summer- like diurnal pattern for much of next week.
The models are progging a weak trough to drop south across the
region on Wednesday. Behind the weak boundary...winds are expected
to shift to a more easterly direction.
Temperatures will also remain above normal through the period. After
the weak boundary mid-week...temperatures are expected to cool off a few
degrees...but still remain above normal for this time of year.
mainly VFR ceilings with potential for MVFR visibilities or even scattered to broken
MVFR ceilings in 10-14z period this morning as showers/storms continue
to push east of kahn and kmcn. Winds generally vrb to calm early
this morning then SW Sunday at 7 kts or less. Cumulus field Sunday in
5-6 kft range but may only get to broken in southern sites. Chance
for precipitation too low to include in taf for Sunday afternoon other
than prob30 for kmcn.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
low to medium on MVFR cigs/vsbys.
Medium on Sunday precipitation chances.
High all else.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 94 69 94 73 / 20 20 30 20
Atlanta 90 72 91 71 / 20 20 30 20
Blairsville 85 63 87 67 / 40 30 30 20
Cartersville 90 68 92 70 / 30 20 30 20
Columbus 93 73 93 74 / 20 20 30 20
Gainesville 89 70 91 71 / 30 20 30 20
Macon 94 69 94 74 / 20 20 30 20
Rome 90 68 93 70 / 30 20 40 20
Peachtree City 91 68 91 71 / 20 20 30 20
Vidalia 96 73 95 77 / 30 30 30 20