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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
405 am EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014
Short term /today through Friday/...
old frontal boundary has become stationary across southern
Georgia...while high pressure has built in from the north.
High pressure ridge will push off to the east later today and
overnight as a cold front currently situated across the central US
approaches the lower Mississippi River valley. The frontal boundary
is prognosticated to approach northwest Georgia early Friday morning. Low level
moisture will begin to increase...especially overnight...as winds
turn more southerly and clouds will begin to thicken. Precipitation
should break out along and ahead of the boundary. The tail end of
the front should settle across south central/south Georgia by Friday
The middle level low pressure and strong shortwave energy look to move
across the Tennessee Valley during the early part of Friday. The best
forcing for the system will go to the north with the
shortwave/low...so any convective activity should be weakening as it
approaches the County warning forecast area. Good surface instability will be present...but
shear and middle level forcing will be weak. A few strong storms are
possible...but severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder will
continue to be possible into the northern portions of the metropolitan
area...but the chances will be small. There is also a chance that
probability of precipitation may need to be extended a little further south near the I-20
corridor...but chances for precipitation remain to small to mention for now.
Took blend for temperatures. However...guidance has been too cold
recently...so bumped up values a few degrees.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
frontal system that moves through in the short term will exit the
state Friday night as high pressure moves back in from the northwest.
This ridge will bring in a drier airmass and keep north and central
Georgia precipitation free through Sunday night. The next frontal
system to affect the state begins developing as an unorganized area
of low pressure over the Front Range Friday night. This area of
low pressure deepens into a tight closed low and moves east into
the plains states by Monday morning. Its trailing cold front
finally pushes into northwest Georgia Monday night/Tuesday morning. Instability and
moisture increase with the front so looking for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures looking more like Summer
with highs mainly in the 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.
high pressure will move offshore today. Low level moisture will
begin to increase...and a scattered cumulus field between 050 and 060 is
expected to develop. Skies will go broken overnight as a front
approaches from the west. Currently...the best chances for precipitation
will remain north of the terminals.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
high confidence all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 78 59 80 55 / 5 10 30 5
Atlanta 78 60 79 56 / 5 10 10 5
Blairsville 72 53 72 46 / 5 60 60 10
Cartersville 79 59 78 52 / 5 40 20 5
Columbus 83 61 83 58 / 5 10 10 0
Gainesville 75 58 77 54 / 5 20 60 10
Macon 82 60 84 57 / 5 10 10 5
Rome 79 60 77 50 / 5 60 20 5
Peachtree City 80 59 80 54 / 5 10 10 0
Vidalia 83 62 86 60 / 5 10 10 5