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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
343 am EDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

Short term /today through Thursday/...
medium range models continue to hold the region under the eastern
periphery of the upper ridge through Thursday. Still expecting an
initially weak surface boundary to settle into the region late
today into Thursday. Models also all showing a weak short wave
rotating into the Tennessee Valley today and moving southwest into
Alabama. Not sure how strong or effective this feature will be for
north and central Georgia but it still looks like convective
coverage will remain scattered across north and central Georgia
today and Thursday...although coverage will be greater than the
past couple of days. Instability is although no
widespread severe thunderstorm development is expected at this
time...isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
each day.

Afternoon highs will remain above seasonal normals through Thursday
as well. Forecast heat index values approach or briefly exceed 105
across some of our central Georgia counties today and a heat
advisory has been issued for the area roughly along and south of a
Columbus to Macon to Swainsboro line.


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
medium and long range models continue to show good agreement on a
cold front pushing into central Georgia Thursday night where it stalls
on Friday and continues to provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms over the weekend. Models continue to show an upper
disturbance producing a weak surface low along the front that
helps push the front into south Georgia or North Florida by early Monday.
This suggest diminishing rain chances across the forecast area by
the first of next week. Otherwise... will continue to show the
greater rain chances for all areas on Thursday... then mainly
across central Georgia for Friday through Sunday where the front is
expected to provide a focus during daytime heating. Moderate
instability and weak wind shear values suggest most storms will
remain below severe limits... with the typical general
thunderstorm producing brief gusty winds... frequent lightning and
locally heavy rain.

Behind the front... should see slightly cooler and drier
conditions across north Georgia over the weekend... while warm and
humid conditions may persist across much of central Georgia... at least
for Friday and Saturday. Still some uncertainty on just how far
south the drier/cooler air mass will push on Sunday...but even
central Georgia should see some slightly cooler temperatures by Monday before
the hot temperatures return by middle next week.



06z update...
/issued at 140 am EDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015/
VFR conditions expected to predominate through the period. Local
to scattered MVFR or lower visibilities expected through 14z...may
have brief impacts at the kahn/kmcn/kfty/kpdk taf sites. Winds
will remain very light and variable in direction through the
period...but will favor northwesterly. Mainly afternoon/evening
convection is expected once again. Will continue the prob30 during
the 20z-00z time frame when best chances are anticipated.

//Atl confidence...06z update...

Confidence medium to high on all elements.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 92 73 93 74 / 40 30 40 30
Atlanta 92 75 92 75 / 40 30 50 30
Blairsville 87 69 89 66 / 40 30 40 20
Cartersville 93 71 93 71 / 40 30 40 20
Columbus 96 76 95 76 / 40 30 50 30
Gainesville 91 74 92 73 / 40 30 40 30
Macon 95 74 94 76 / 40 30 50 30
Rome 92 71 93 71 / 40 30 40 20
Peachtree City 93 72 92 74 / 40 30 50 30
Vidalia 95 75 96 76 / 40 30 40 30


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening
for the following zones: Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...



Short term...20
long term....39

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