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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
220 am EST Sat Nov 29 2014

Short term /today through Sunday/...
northwest flow aloft this morning transitions to weak ridging across
the southeast by tonight while at the surface the center of the high
pressure system continues to slide east into the Atlantic. Main
focus of the short term is the warming trend. With southerly flow at
the surface and weak upper ridge building in aloft temperatures will
climb into the middle 50s to lower 60s across north and central Georgia
today...resulting in high temperatures only a few degrees below
normal. By Sunday though...high temperatures are a few degrees above normal
as most areas warm back into the 60s and even lower 70s across the
far southeast part of the County Warning Area. Although almost all of the County Warning Area is
below freezing this morning...it looks like this wont happen again
for most of the County Warning Area for a bit. After this morning...low temperatures
are above freezing for both the short and long term /exception may
be a small area in the mountains in the short term/.

Short term forecast remains dry. Some difference between models in
terms of cloud coverage this afternoon across north Georgia...with
the NAM much more aggressive. Think the NAM is overdone but still
looking at some clouds across north Georgia this afternoon. Both the
GFS and NAM show some low clouds across north Georgia Sunday morning
and this will linger into the afternoon Sunday across far north
Georgia.

11



Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
overall trend in the long term is zonal flow with fast moving short
waves moving through the flow. This zonal flow will also keep the
Arctic air to our north. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal through the long term. The first short wave will move across
north Georgia late Monday and into Tuesday night bringing a chance of
showers to extreme north Georgia. A wedge develops for a short period
time Tuesday and Wednesday...but this will dissipate as the next
short wave approaches. Models have a difficult time with timing and
depth of moisture with this wave. What they do agree on is that
there will be a chance of showers across north Georgia at the end of the
upcoming week. Due to the timing differences will go with slight
chance to chance of showers beginning Thursday night across north Georgia
and maintain this through the rest of the long term.

17



&&

Aviation...
06z update...
winds this morning are wavering around S and will continue to do
so through sunrise. Wind speeds will be light initially though. As
the winds become stronger /about 8kts/ by middle morning...the
direction should be more south-southwest. Guidance is very different this
afternoon in terms of cloud coverage at northern taf sites. Think
the one model is overdoing it...but did go ahead and include the
mention of few040 for the afternoon. Think the broken ceilings will
remain north of the taf sites.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
high confidence on visibilities. Medium on ceilings and wind.

11

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 57 38 64 45 / 0 0 5 5
Atlanta 56 43 63 50 / 0 0 5 5
Blairsville 55 35 62 39 / 0 0 5 5
Cartersville 57 40 63 44 / 0 0 5 5
Columbus 60 41 66 48 / 0 0 0 5
Gainesville 54 40 60 47 / 0 0 5 5
Macon 60 36 68 45 / 0 0 0 5
Rome 57 39 63 45 / 0 0 5 10
Peachtree City 58 35 64 43 / 0 0 5 5
Vidalia 62 42 70 50 / 0 0 0 5

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...11
long term....17
aviation...11

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