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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
422 am EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Short term /today through Wednesday/...
models consistent with drifting an upper low pressure system to
the southern Appalachians of the Carolinas through Wednesday.
The deepest moisture is shifting east of the area but still plenty of
remaining moisture to generate mostly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms...with the highest probability of precipitation now shifted to the eastern County Warning Area.
A nearly stationary cold front over north Georgia drifts to central to S Georgia
through Wednesday. Think there will be a more diurnal tendency to the
convection this period.

Highest probability of precipitation 60-70 percent over the east to 30-50 percent over the west today
and should diminish quickly tonight but possibly lingering over the far
eastern counties. Highest probability of precipitation will again be over the eastern counties on Wednesday.

With the slow movement of the upper system...Storm Prediction Center has the entire County Warning Area in a
marginal risk area for severe thunderstorms today and all but some of the
northern counties in a marginal risk area for Wednesday. The main
threat will be damaging winds. Locally heavy rain still possible but less
so than the past 2 days.

Forecast high temperatures running near to slightly below normal today and
Wednesday. Forecast low temperatures are running near normal tonight.

Bdl



Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
GFS/European model (ecmwf) in pretty close agreement with the position of the upper
tough as it moves off the East Coast. The problem the models have is
with timing of the short waves moving down the northwest flow that
sets up behind the trough. For this reason have gone with broad
brushing probability of precipitation each day.

17



&&

Aviation...
06z update...
mainly VFR but continued concern for IFR ceilings early this
morning and will watch. Some potential for ongoing convection this
morning but in general it is expected to continue to weaken. VFR
conditions at least later today with again potential for showers
and thunderstorms to develop mainly during the afternoon. Surface
winds calm or light and variable becoming west-southwest.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
low to medium confidence all elements.

Bdl

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 83 62 82 63 / 60 40 50 30
Atlanta 81 64 82 65 / 50 30 40 20
Blairsville 76 56 75 60 / 60 40 60 30
Cartersville 81 60 82 62 / 50 30 30 20
Columbus 85 65 86 68 / 50 30 30 20
Gainesville 80 62 79 63 / 60 30 40 30
Macon 86 63 86 65 / 60 40 50 30
Rome 81 60 82 63 / 30 30 30 20
Peachtree City 82 61 83 62 / 50 30 30 20
Vidalia 85 67 85 68 / 70 60 50 40

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...bdl
long term....17
aviation...bdl

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