Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
130 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Previous discussion... /issued 742 PM EDT Sat may 25 2013/
Update...
no forecast concerns tonight. Going forecast looks good. Will monitor
poss for record min temperature at mcn. Of recent model runs...only GFS
indicating any potential for convection on Monday. The 15z sref
has small chance in far NE Georgia. Pretty dry forecast through all of next
week really.
Snelson
Previous discussion... /issued 341 PM EDT Sat may 25 2013/
Short term /tonight through Monday/...
models in good agreement with high pressure dominating through
Sunday. Then the surface ridge... currently nosing down from the
Ohio Valley... drifts east and establishes a moist southerly wind
flow by early Monday. This... coupled with a weak upper disturbance
moving in from the west will bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to mainly north Georgia on Monday. This is where the more
favorable deep layer moisture... instability and forcing is expected
to be focused during daytime heating. No severe storms are expected
at this time. Otherwise... scattered to occasionally broken high
clouds will continue to spread in from the northwest through Sunday.
Then expect an increase in middle level clouds on Monday as additional
moisture supports an increase in cumulus development Monday afternoon.
As for temperatures... light winds and thin high clouds favor leaning
toward the cooler guidance for lows tonight... with expected
overnight lows still running around 5-8 degrees cooler than normal
for most areas. Although not expecting to break any record lows
tonight... Macon should get close. Went with a mav and met blend for
the remaining periods... with a warming trend returning more
seasonable numbers to the area for Sunday and Sunday night. Then
slightly warmer than normal highs are expected on Monday as temperatures
climb into the middle and upper 80s for most areas Monday afternoon.
39
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
no major changes made to the extended forecast. Over the course
of the long term the upper ridge slowly builds over the region.
For the first couple of days we remain in a northwest flow which
will help keep in a slight chance of thunder Monday/Tuesday as weak
short waves move through. After Tuesday the ridge becomes the
dominant feature keeping the County Warning Area dry for the rest of the long term
with a more Summer like pattern. Temperatures will also rebound into the
80s and 90s by middle week.
01
Climate...
Records for 05-26
Maximum temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 99 1911 63 1963 72 2004 41 1979
katl 94 1936 64 1923 73 1989 43 1979
1916 1901
1911
kcsg 97 2012 75 1961 74 2000 47 1979
1989
kmcn 98 1962 69 1901 72 1921 49 1979
Fire weather...
area observations are showing some areas with relative humidity values less than 25
percent this afternoon as expected. Will continue with the Fire
Danger Statement through early this evening. Moisture will begin
returning to the area on Sunday... and model dewpoints show relative humidity
values holding above critical values for all areas Sunday afternoon.
Therefore... not expecting any additional fire danger conditions
after today.
39
&&
Aviation...
06z update...
VFR through the period...with few-scattered high clouds passing through.
Winds generally westerly and light /less than 5kt all but atl/...
though expect a shift to the east at atl toward the end of the
period.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium-high on timing of wind shift.
High on all other elements.
Tdp
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 83 57 86 61 / 0 5 10 10
Atlanta 83 62 86 66 / 0 5 10 10
Blairsville 80 53 80 58 / 0 5 20 20
Cartersville 83 54 87 60 / 0 5 10 10
Columbus 87 63 88 64 / 0 5 5 10
Gainesville 80 59 84 63 / 0 5 20 20
Macon 86 57 87 61 / 0 5 5 10
Rome 83 54 88 58 / 0 5 10 10
Peachtree City 84 55 86 59 / 0 5 10 10
Vidalia 88 59 87 64 / 0 5 0 10
&&
Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
