Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1244 PM EST sun Dec 21 2014
Previous discussion... /issued 1029 am EST sun Dec 21 2014/
Not a lot of changes to the grids this morning. Lowered probability of precipitation down
south...precipitation not spreading north quite as quickly as anticipated
so kept probability of precipitation at slight chance through the morning and early
afternoon with gradual upward trend later today. Added more fog to
the grids as well and increased sky cover this morning...though
we are starting to see some holes showing up. Temperatures are
lagging behind the forecast warming trend but am hesitant to lower
afternoon highs without getting a better handle on sky trends...so
no change there for now. Will send a product refresh shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 645 am EST sun Dec 21 2014/
Previous discussion... /issued 433 am EST sun Dec 21 2014/
Short term /today through Monday/...
short term... weak high pressure ridge building down the East Coast
with low clouds and easterly flow over the state. This ridge is
expected to strengthen today so these low clouds are expected to
stay around through most of the majority of the short term. Weak
shortwave moving NE across the Gulf is pushing showers across
southern Georgia. This wave is expected to move slowly northward today
spreading precipitation into central and portions of north Georgia today and
tonight. Only expecting light rain or drizzle across north Georgia as
wedge will be firmly inplace across north Georgia. With this wedge building
in maximum temperatures to day will be an issue. Looking for temperatures to creep
into the 50s across the area but not sure if they will get that warm
as not sure just how deep The Wedge is yet.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
wedge in place at the start of the period with strong upper
trough still west of the MS river. Strong southerly flow should
bring rain and a few thunderstorms into the forecast area but with
wedge in place through Tuesday...thunder should be more isolated
north and east. A few severe possible mainly along the southern
fringes of the forecast area...depending on how far The Wedge
builds. Models in good agreement that surface cold front be just
into northwest Georgia around 12z Wednesday. Rain exiting the area
Wednesday night...but still looks like a mix on rain and snow is
possible across the extreme northeast as the cold air advects
eastward. Dry for Thursday and Friday. The next system bringing
rain into the area by Saturday...but the GFS is slower with this.
widespread IFR to low MVFR at taf time. Expect some brief
improvement this afternoon but ceilings drop again after sunset as -dz
develops. Should see IFR to LIFR before sunrise Monday. Expect
IFR visibility as well. Only minor improvement late Monday morning but
basically IFR everywhere through the end of the period...even atl
through 00z Tuesday. Winds east generally between 5-10kt.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
medium on timing of low cigs/vsby.
High on all else.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 51 41 50 43 / 30 60 40 40
Atlanta 52 43 52 47 / 20 30 30 40
Blairsville 51 39 48 42 / 10 40 40 40
Cartersville 52 42 52 45 / 10 20 20 40
Columbus 55 46 59 52 / 20 30 30 40
Gainesville 50 41 49 43 / 20 40 40 50
Macon 54 45 57 48 / 40 60 40 40
Rome 52 41 53 46 / 10 20 20 30
Peachtree City 52 42 55 47 / 20 30 30 40
Vidalia 52 48 60 52 / 50 70 60 40