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Area forecast discussion...updated for aviation 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
740 PM EDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
another upper level disturbance moving through the northwest flow
has yet again caused thunderstorms to Blossom across the region
this afternoon. With analyzed cape values of 2000-3000 j/kg in our
County Warning Area...some of these storms have become strong to severe. This will
continue to be the story through the evening hours. Rainfall rates
will also be quite high with this activity due to the copious
amounts of moisture in place.

While the general trend should be for thunderstorm intensity to
weaken overnight...scattered showers and thunderstorms will be still
remain possible with such an active pattern in place...especially
over northern reaches of the County Warning Area.

The County Warning Area will still reside in the same active pattern leading into
the Holiday weekend... with more showers and thunderstorms expected
to develop across the area. Coverage will be highest across north
Georgia. Some of these thunderstorms may become strong to severe
with adequate instability...as has been the case the last several
days. Storm Prediction Center has the entire County Warning Area in a marginal risk for severe weather
on Friday to highlight this possibility.

Temperatures will remain generally below average in the short
tern due to the abundant shower and thunderstorm activity.

Rain shower

Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
active pattern will continue into early next week.

Long wave trough isnt prognosticated to break down until early next
week...so the County warning forecast area will remain in the unsettled northwest flow pattern.
This means potent shortwaves will drop southeast in the flow...accompanied
by areas of showers and thunderstorms.

Middle level flow will flatten out by middle week and become more zonal.
The Gulf will be open for business...and scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will continue to be possible. A cold front will
approach the County warning forecast area by the end of the week.

Only some minor changes to the grids were made...with some higher
chances for precipitation into the weekend.

Nlistemaa

&&

Aviation...
00z update...
generally VFR conditions expected through this evening with some
MVFR conditions possible after 08z. Convection has diminished but
additional development is possible overnight...better chances again
Friday mainly during the afternoon. Light west to southwest wind
overnight increasing to 10 to 15kt after 14z with some gusts.



//Atl confidence...00z update...
confidence is medium on morning stratus. High on all other elements.

41

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 70 86 70 86 / 50 40 30 40
Atlanta 72 84 71 85 / 50 40 30 40
Blairsville 65 77 64 76 / 70 60 50 60
Cartersville 70 83 68 82 / 70 60 50 60
Columbus 73 90 73 89 / 30 30 20 40
Gainesville 70 81 69 81 / 60 60 40 50
Macon 71 90 71 91 / 30 30 20 40
Rome 70 83 69 82 / 70 60 50 60
Peachtree City 71 85 70 87 / 50 40 30 40
Vidalia 72 92 73 93 / 30 30 20 30

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...41
long term....nlistemaa
aviation...41

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