Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
758 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015
Previous discussion... /issued 330 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/
Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...
coverage of showers and thunderstorms has been slightly higher today
than over the past couple of days as increased moisture has pushed
into the area. With relatively unimpressive instability in place...
most of this activity should remain benign and below severe limits.
For Wednesday...the County Warning Area will remain on the eastern edge of the upper
ridge centered over the Southern Plains. With plenty of moisture
remaining in place...scattered convection will develop by midday and
increase through the afternoon hours. Instability will again be
moderate and middle-levels will be quite moist...so expect thunderstorm
activity to be below severe limits again.
Temperatures will remain hot on Wednesday with widespread heat
indices around or just over 100 degrees. With that being said...the
current forecast is that most areas will remain below the heat
advisory criteria of 105 degrees for tomorrow afternoon. For this
reason no heat advisory will be issued at this time.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
a pattern change is expected by late week as a cold front stalls
across the area.
County warning forecast area will be on the eastern periphery of a 500mb high center through
late Thursday. The ridge will start to retrograde westward as a a
longwave trough digs along the southeast coast Friday. The trough is
expected to stay in place through the weekend into early next week
before the high center builds back east.
At the surface...a front will drop south across the area Thursday
into Friday. The boundary is expected to stall near the southern
County warning forecast area through much of the weekend...before becoming diffuse early
next week. Several waves of low pressure will ride east along the
front...each enhancing the chances for convection.
One of the main changes to the long term forecast was to raise probability of precipitation
in the south Friday into Saturday.
isolated thunderstorms diminishing as the sun is setting. There
area a few outflow boundaries moving around the atl area so will
continue to watch for any convective pop ups over the next 1 to 2
hours. Expecting another round of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain development Wednesday
afternoon. Winds northwest at 10kt or less and should stay that way
through the period. Have seen some higher gust in and around
thunderstorms and should be the same Wednesday afternoon. Visibilities should
stay VFR through the period.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
confidence medium to high on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 73 93 74 94 / 30 30 30 40
Atlanta 75 91 75 92 / 20 30 30 40
Blairsville 67 87 66 89 / 30 40 20 50
Cartersville 73 92 73 93 / 20 30 20 40
Columbus 77 96 75 94 / 20 30 30 40
Gainesville 74 90 74 91 / 30 30 30 40
Macon 73 95 73 93 / 20 30 30 40
Rome 73 93 74 93 / 20 30 20 40
Peachtree City 73 92 73 92 / 20 30 30 40
Vidalia 75 96 75 94 / 20 30 30 40