Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
330 PM CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
a cold front currently located near the edge of The Hill Country
will slow it/S eastward progress as it heads toward the I-35
corridor this afternoon and evening. Tough to call this a cold front
as much drier air...downslope warming and plenty of sunshine have
allowed temperatures to warm into the middle 80s to lower 90s behind
the boundary. As the front encounters deeper moisture east of
I-35... we could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop this
afternoon and early evening. Otherwise... light winds are expected
overnight with weak high pressure in place. Low-level moisture
remains intact near the coastal plains and we/ll continue to mention
fog in the forecast early Friday morning for areas generally east of
I-35. Winds become southeasterly on Friday and this will serve to
increase low-level moisture across the region. We/ll need to monitor
our far northwestern County Warning Area (val Verde county) for possible convection
Friday afternoon. At this time...storm development seems favorable
across the higher terrain of Mexico west of Val Verde County. Any
storms that manage to develop and move off the higher terrain will
need to be monitored. Confidence in storms affecting Val Verde
County is rather low and will not include a mention in the forecast
at this time.

&&

Long term (saturday through thursday)...
a moist southeasterly flow remains intact on Saturday as an upper
level trough moves into the Desert Southwest. Strong surface heating
and low-level convergence along the dryline should aid in
thunderstorm development over the southern Edwards Plateau Saturday
afternoon. Some of this activity could spread eastward into the Rio
Grande plains and Hill Country during the evening hours. We/ll
continue to mention the possibility of severe thunderstorms for
areas generally west of an Eagle Pass to Kerrville line. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the main severe weather concerns. A
Pacific cold front will move in from the west on Sunday and this
will shift precipitation chances into areas generally along and east
of I-35. The stronger forcing will likely remain north of our
region... but we/ll need to monitor for the possibility of a few
strong to severe storms across our far northern areas...generally
north of Highway 29. The forecast will trend drier for the early
half of the upcoming work week. The flow aloft becomes increasingly
amplified next week as a sharp upper ridge builds along the West
Coast...with a downstream upper low parking itself over the plains
states. Our region will be on the southern end of this low... with
westerly flow aloft likely to dominate. Temperatures should remain
below normal beginning Wednesday of next week as northerly surface
winds increase behind a cold front. The latest MOS guidance has
trended warmer with temperatures late in the forecast period. For
now... will not make any significant changes to the forecast at this
time.

&&

Fire weather...
fire weather concerns for this forecast remain consistent based on
the latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions
will continue this afternoon and early evening for The Hill
Country...southern Edwards Plateau and northern Rio Grande
plains. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
expected Sunday and Monday along and west of the I-35 corridor.
Fire weather concerns spread across all of south central Texas on
Tuesday as a dry cold front moves through the region.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 59 89 66 88 70 / - - 10 20 30
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 57 89 62 88 69 / - - 10 10 30
New Braunfels Muni Airport 59 90 64 89 69 / - - 10 20 20
Burnet Muni Airport 55 87 65 86 68 / - - - 20 30
del Rio International Airport 64 92 70 94 69 / 0 10 10 20 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 55 87 65 85 69 / - - - 10 30
Hondo Muni Airport 62 93 68 93 71 / - - 10 20 40
San Marcos Muni Airport 59 89 65 88 69 / - - 10 20 30
La Grange - Fayette regional 62 87 65 85 70 / - - 10 10 20
San Antonio International Airport 62 90 67 90 70 / - - 10 20 30
Stinson Muni Airport 64 92 66 93 71 / - - 10 20 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...17
synoptic/grids...24
public service/data collection...33