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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
401 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
the overnight rainfall event left some impressive precipitation
totals across portions of south central Texas. Hardest hit were
Williamson...Travis...northern Hays and northern blanco counties.
The highest rainfall total so far has been 7.1 inches from a
cocorahs observer in west central Travis County. There were fairly
widespread reports of 2 to 4 inches across Travis and Williamson
counties.

Satellite trends from this morning show pronounced clearing across
locations generally east of Highway 83. Daytime heating along with a
continued very moist atmosphere (precipitable water values from near
1.9" west to 2.25" east) have allowed another round of convection to
develop this afternoon. Hi-res models suggest areas along and north
of Highway 71 stand the best shot at additional precipitation this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Based on the recent
rainfall...expected additional rainfall and the day 1 excessive
rainfall outlook of slight to moderate...we will continue a very
good chance for precipitation for the rest of today into tonight.
Elsewhere across the region...the latest hi-res models suggest a
good chance for rain across most areas...especially along and east
of a Rocksprings to Uvalde to Pleasanton line. The hi-res arw/nmm
show a more organized area of convection dropping south out of west
central Texas into the western Hill Country and southern Edwards
Plateau overnight. Given good agreement among the models...we have
opted to increase rain chances significantly across this region. The
atmosphere remains very moist and can/T rule out additional heavy
rainfall and flash flooding concerns overnight. With this in mind...
we will extend the current Flash Flood Watch for the Highway 71
corridor through 7 am Friday morning. We will also add counties
along and north of a Rocksprings...Uvalde...San Antonio...Gonzales
to Hallettsville line. Rainfall amounts will generally average 1-3"
with higher amounts of 3 to 5". Moisture remains intact on Friday
and with subtle shortwave troughs embedded in the northwest flow
aloft... we will increase rain chances to 30% along the Rio Grande
and up to 50% generally north of I-10.

&&

Long term (saturday through thursday)...
on Saturday...the short range models suggest the middle-level remnants
of Odile will gradually slide eastward into portions of west central
and central Texas. Additional showers and thunderstorms remain
possible given plenty of moisture and daytime heating. The
remnants of Odile eventually move east through early next week.
We/ll continue to mention a slight chance of showers and storms
through Tuesday. The medium range models have trended with a cold
front next week and generally show little change in air mass
across the region.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 73 90 72 89 73 / 70 50 30 30 20
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 72 89 71 89 71 / 70 50 30 30 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 90 72 91 72 / 70 50 30 30 20
Burnet Muni Airport 71 88 72 88 72 / 70 50 30 30 20
del Rio International Airport 76 89 75 88 75 / 40 30 30 30 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 72 88 72 89 73 / 70 50 30 30 20
Hondo Muni Airport 73 91 72 91 73 / 60 40 30 30 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 73 89 72 89 73 / 70 50 30 30 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 73 90 72 89 74 / 70 50 30 30 20
San Antonio International Airport 75 90 75 91 75 / 60 50 30 30 20
Stinson Muni Airport 75 91 74 92 75 / 60 50 30 30 30

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following
counties: Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...blanco...Burnet...Caldwell...
Comal...Edwards...Fayette...Gillespie...Gonzales...Guadalupe...
Hays...Kendall...Kerr...Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Medina...real...
Travis...Uvalde...Williamson.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...05
synoptic/grids...24
public service/data collection...33

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