Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
642 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015
gusty south and southeast winds will drop off shortly after
Sundown. VFR will prevail through midnight and then look for
clouds to reform mainly along the I-35 corridor for the
Sat/ssf/aus sites. Went IFR for Sat/ssf based on previous days
while aus/drt will be in MVFR through the morning. All sites will
start to mix out by early afternoon with a return of VFR. Guidance
is once again showing some decent gusts over 20kt Monday
Previous discussion... /issued 256 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015/
Short term (tonight through Monday night)...
very light isolated showers continue to bubble over the eastern
half of the County Warning Area this afternoon as moisture continues to funnel
northward from south Texas. Visible satellite shows the more stable
and drier air present over the plateau area as cumulus development is
not occurring there. Isentropic lift and daytime heating will
likely not be enough to overcome the weak cap in place over the
region. Also...dry air aloft and a fzl above 14kft will make
thunder difficult to come by this afternoon. Models bring in some
low level dry air tonight and that plus loss of daytime heating
should stomp out any showers by 00z-ish.
A surface low pressure center will intensify from the Texas Panhandle
tomorrow afternoon and tighten the surface pressure gradient across
south central Texas. This will make the afternoon hours pretty
breezy with sustained 15-20 kts advertised in the MOS guidance.
Pressure falls look pretty rapid over the afternoon across the maf
County Warning Area and could produce some isallobaric wind gusts up to 25 or 30
miles per hour on the plateau and higher elevations.
Long term (tuesday through sunday)...
ridge amplification and movement will be the story of the week as
the Summer like conditions look to prevail throughout the next 7
days. Moisture trapped within the ridge center will continue to
produce showers and storms out in Mexico and West Texas through
the Panhandle. A couple upper level shortwaves will act to produce
some storm activity well north of the County Warning Area...and there still is the
off chance for US to inherit a dying system in the northern zones
Wednesday night but still looks like this is unlikely.
Otherwise...continued drying of the atmosphere and soils will
result in a gradual warming trend in temperatures through the
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 91 76 92 75 / - - - - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 76 90 76 91 75 / - - - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 89 75 91 74 / - - - - 0
Burnet Muni Airport 74 89 75 89 73 / - - - - 10
del Rio International Airport 76 93 77 93 76 / - 10 10 20 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 76 90 76 91 75 / - - - - 10
Hondo Muni Airport 74 90 76 91 74 / - - - - 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 90 76 91 74 / - - - - 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 77 90 77 91 76 / - - - 10 -
San Antonio International Airport 75 91 76 91 75 / - - - - 0
Stinson Muni Airport 75 91 76 91 75 / - - - - 0
public service/data collection...LH