Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
308 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Short term (tonight through Monday night)...
widespread cumulus field across S central Texas/Hill country region
this afternoon. The cumulus were becoming more agitated across the
western/northwestern Hill Country along the dry line and will continue
isolated evening storms across this area. Storm Prediction Center has also brought the
slight risk area down into the area...so have updated the severe weather potential statement. This
convection will end with the loss of heating not long after
sunset. Otherwise little change through Monday night with the dry
line setting off isolated convection across the western County Warning Area Monday
afternoon and evening. Continued unseasonably warm and breezy.
&&
Long term (tuesday through sunday)...
best chances for any rain this package continue to be late Tuesday
into early Wednesday as an upper air trough and a surface cold
front arrive in central Texas during maximum heating late Tuesday afternoon.
Isolated-scattered thunderstorms developing over north/central Texas
Tuesday afternoon and dropping southward across the County Warning Area Tuesday
evening. Storm Prediction Center continues to have much of the County Warning Area in a slight risk
area. With upper air support and surface convergence along the
front/outflow boundaries...this convection should continue well past
sunset into the overnight hours. Decreasing probability of precipitation on Wednesday...as
lingering surface boundaries and cool northwesterly flow aloft could result
in isolated storms during the day. The remainder of the forecast
for Thursday through Sunday looks unseasonably warm and humid...with
little chance for any significant convection...so have gone with
silent 5-10 percent probability of precipitation and warmer than guidance temperatures.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 73 94 73 94 72 / - - 10 30 40
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 72 93 72 94 71 / - - 10 30 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 94 71 95 70 / - - 10 20 40
Burnet Muni Airport 71 94 71 92 70 / - 10 20 30 40
del Rio International Airport 76 100 75 99 75 / - 10 20 10 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 72 93 71 93 71 / - - 10 30 40
Hondo Muni Airport 73 97 72 97 72 / - - 10 20 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 73 93 72 94 71 / - - 10 30 40
La Grange - Fayette regional 75 93 75 93 74 / 10 - 10 20 30
San Antonio International Airport 73 94 73 94 72 / - - 10 20 30
Stinson Muni Airport 73 95 73 95 73 / - - 10 20 30
&&
Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/aviation...05
synoptic/grids...01
public service/data collection...31
