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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
843 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014

Update...
sent out a quick update to include patchy fog down over the SW
zones for about the next 1.5 hours. Increased cloud grids over The
Hill Country and west as well. Moisture is shallow so look for the
fog and clouds to thin by 10-11am.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 534 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014/

Aviation...
concern this morning will be the low clouds. Low clouds formed
across the west as expected a few hours ago and they continue to
spread east and northeast. MVFR ceilings were being reported at
kdrt this morning. Kdrt could even drop to IFR conditions for a
few hours this morning. Will monitor for possible update. At this
time looks like kaus will be the most likely of the I-35 sites to
see MVFR ceilings. Will put ceilings in at kdrt/kaus. Should see
a fast break-up of clouds once mixing begins 15z- 16z. Simulated
WRF again indicates the development of low clouds after 07z across
the I-35 terminals. With this in mind have included MVFR ceilings at
the I-35 sites from 07-08z. At this time low clouds look to stay
just to the west of kdrt. Winds will be southerly today at 10-15
knots with some gusts to near 20 knots especially across the Rio
Grande plains. After 00z southerly winds decrease to 5-8 knots.

Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014/

Short term (today through saturday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed Texas in northwesterly flow
between a trough over the east and a ridge over the west. Water
vapor satellite imagery showed dry air in the mid-levels. At the
surface high pressure was centered to the northeast...but the
pressure gradient was weak and winds were light and variable. Dew point
temperatures were generally in the 30s. Models are in good
agreement of upper pattern progressing to the east with the ridge
moving across Texas during this period. The low level flow will
become southeasterly. This will lead to continued dry weather with
warming temperatures. Temperatures will be above normal Saturday.

Long term (saturday night through thursday)...
models continue to display good agreement over the weekend and
into early next week. A weak trough will move across Texas over
the weekend and move to the east Monday. Then the flow will become
northwesterly to westerly. Southeasterly flow in the low levels
will continue over the weekend with another warm day Sunday. A
cold front will move in from the north Monday passing through our
County Warning Area during the day. This will likely make for a tricky temperature
forecast Monday...as daytime fronts usually do. Maximum
temperature forecast will be highly dependent on when frontal
passage occurs. The front will also bring slight chances for rain
over the eastern third of the forecast area. Northerly flow will
continue on Tuesday. The models showing some variance for the
middle of the week. But with timing differences there is agreement
of continuing moist...southeasterly flow and this will bring
slight chances for rain to the eastern counties Thursday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 69 54 75 63 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 70 51 75 63 77 / 0 0 0 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 52 76 63 77 / 0 0 0 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 67 50 72 62 74 / 0 0 0 10 10
del Rio International Airport 68 45 71 52 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 68 52 74 63 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 68 46 73 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 70 51 75 63 77 / 0 0 0 10 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 70 55 76 64 77 / 0 - 0 10 10
San Antonio International Airport 69 53 74 61 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 71 51 75 62 77 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...15
synoptic/grids...09
public service/data collection...32

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