Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1134 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014
moist return flow will bring MVFR ceilings to the I-35 sites from
08-16z...but scatter out quickly as daily mixing commences late
Friday morning. All sites will see a return to moderately strong
and gusty winds Friday afternoon...but about 5kt lower than today.
Expect a repeat Friday evening with gusty winds...then a return of
MVFR ceilings after 09-10z in the 30-hour extended tafs at kaus/ksat.
Previous discussion... /issued 745 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014/
to remove heat advisory.
temperatures are beginning to decrease and everywhere has dropped
below heat advisory criteria for this evening. Have removed the
heat advisory headline from these counties. Otherwise...have
adjusted hourly weather grids to account for observational trends.
Previous discussion... /issued 646 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014/
isolated vcsh will be near kdrt through 02z...otherwise VFR with
gusty surface and lower level winds through 05z at all sites.
Moist return flow will bring MVFR ceilings to the I-35 sites from
08-15z...but scatter out quickly as daily mixing commences late
Friday morning. MVFR ceilings should be higher above ground level and only from
11-16z Friday at kdrt. All sites will see a return to moderately
strong and gusty winds Friday afternoon...but about 5kt lower
Previous discussion... /issued 257 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014/
Short term (tonight through Friday night)...hot and dry forecast
through the short term...under the influence of the expanding
southwest periphery of the large middle and upper level ridge
centering over the lower Mississippi River valley. Heat advisory
verifying in a few spots already...peaking over the next couple of
hours. Will allow the advisory to continue through 7 PM. Elevated
fire weather conditions also will continue through the early to
middle evening across the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards
Plateau. Slight potential for storms across Mexico to clip far
northwest portion of Val Verde County through sunset.
Winds remaining elevated in many areas overnight as 35 knots low level jet
develops. This will keep lows Friday morning across southern and
eastern areas around 80 degrees again...and with maximum temperatures and
heat indices Friday afternoon at or a degree warmer than today
another heat advisory may be required for southeast zones.
Long term (saturday through thursday)...under the influence of
the southwest periphery of the ridge south-central Texas will
remain hot and dry over the weekend. The ridge will flatten
early next week as a trough carves out across The Rockies into the
Central Plains. Eventually slightly cooler temperatures and an increase
in moisture takes place Wednesday and Thursday. Tail end of the
trough and enough moisture pooling may end up close enough
Thursday to provide possibly northern and central areas with a
chance rain. But confidence on day 7 is too low to warrant
inclusion in official forecast at this time.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 79 101 76 100 75 / - - - - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 77 101 74 100 73 / - - - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 103 74 101 73 / - - - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 76 98 72 97 72 / - - - - -
del Rio International Airport 77 100 76 100 77 / - - - - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 79 99 74 98 73 / - - - - -
Hondo Muni Airport 75 99 72 98 72 / - - - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 77 101 75 99 74 / - - - - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 79 102 77 101 75 / - - - - -
San Antonio International Airport 80 101 77 100 76 / - - - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 78 102 76 101 75 / - - - - -
public service/data collection...99