Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
305 PM CST Friday Jan 30 2015

Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...
the latest water vapor satellite loop shows a fairly deep upper
trough just west of the Baja California peninsula...with plenty of middle and
upper level moisture across Mexico and the Desert Southwest. This
trough is forecast to deepen through Saturday...while slowly moving
southward. As the trough approaches...an increase in southwesterly
flow aloft is expected. The moisture and large scale lift associated
with this trough will result in increasing rain chances tonight
beginning out west along the Rio Grande. Moisture levels will
initially be higher along the Rio Grande. However...there is some
dry air noted on forecast soundings in the 600-800mb layer...
especially east of I-35...and this may keep rainfall amounts fairly
low for tonight. The column is expected to moisten throughout the
day Saturday and this will result in increasing rain chances. It/S
still difficult to pinpoint when the stronger lift will arrive. For
now...it appears the best lift and moisture will coincide beginning
Saturday afternoon and continuing through most of Saturday night.
We have also added a mention of isolated thunderstorms Saturday
night as models show some elevated instability spreading from west
to east across the region.

&&

Long term (sunday through friday)...
we/ll keep rain chances fairly high on Sunday as the upper level
trough remains to our southwest. Average rainfall amounts around
1/2" are forecast through Sunday night. Would not be too surprised
to see isolated amounts closer to 3/4" to 1" across The Hill
Country. We also expect a cold front to move through during the
afternoon and evening hours to move through and this could aid in
precipitation development. The pressure gradient behind the cold
front looks rather Stout and gusty north winds are expected into
early Monday morning. Drier air and increasing stability behind the
front will lead to a dry and cool forecast for Monday. Meanwhile...
the upper level low will move into central Mexico by late
Monday...then into deep south Texas late Tuesday. Light showers will
develop near the coastal plains Monday night...then spread northward
into the I-35 corridor on Tuesday. The upper low finally departs on
Wednesday followed by another cold front Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Dry and cool weather is anticipated for the end
of the upcoming work week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 47 59 56 66 38 / 10 60 70 50 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 45 61 55 65 37 / 10 60 70 50 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 46 62 57 68 39 / 20 60 70 50 10
Burnet Muni Airport 44 54 53 59 34 / 20 80 70 50 10
del Rio International Airport 50 59 53 68 41 / 70 80 30 30 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 44 57 55 62 35 / 10 70 70 50 10
Hondo Muni Airport 47 61 54 69 39 / 50 70 50 30 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 46 61 56 67 38 / 20 60 70 40 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 47 63 57 68 40 / 10 50 70 60 20
San Antonio International Airport 48 61 56 69 40 / 30 70 60 40 10
Stinson Muni Airport 48 63 56 69 41 / 30 70 60 40 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...29
synoptic/grids...24
public service/data collection...12

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations