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afdewx 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
655 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015

Update...
please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions are expected at area taf sites through the current
forecast period. Few-scattered clouds with bases generally 5-6k above ground level will
continue to dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Otherwise...southerly flow in the low-levels is expected
overnight. We expect some low clouds to develop after 09z across
the region...but for now we/ll keep scattered VFR clouds. Can/T
completely rule out some brief fog at kaus...but with winds taking
on more of a southwesterly direction toward sunrise...will only
keep a tempo group for 5sm. Cloud bases will then rise with the
onset of daytime heating tomorrow as southerly winds gradually
increase to around 10kts.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 246 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015/

Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...
upper air analysis this morning showed a trough along the Texas
Gulf Coast and a ridge building in from the west. The flow was
from the north-northwest. At the surface high pressure was
centered over East Texas with winds becoming southerly mainly over
the western part of our County Warning Area. The pressure gradient was less well
defined over the east where winds were light and variable. Dew
point temperatures were still in the middle to upper 60s. The upper
level ridge will become dominant during this period building into
the Central Plains. The surface high will drift to the east and
southerly winds will spread across the entire County Warning Area. The period
looks to remain dry. Temperatures will rise a bit...but still be a
little below normal.

Long term (wednesday through monday)...
the upper level pattern will change very little over Texas through
this period. The ridge will strengthen through the end of the
week as a trough digs down along the West Coast. At the surface a
high pressure center will rotate around the Gulf of Mexico and
winds will generally be from the south to southeast through the
period. This will set US up for a dry forecast with warming
temperatures. Ample soil moisture will help keep temperatures down
some given the placement of the upper level ridge on top of US.
High temperatures will likely reach into the lower 90s by Sunday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 67 88 67 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 65 88 65 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 88 67 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 66 87 66 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio International Airport 69 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 65 87 67 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 66 88 67 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 66 87 66 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 67 87 68 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio International Airport 68 88 68 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 68 88 68 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...24
synoptic/grids...Oaks
public service/data collection...30

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