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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1005 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014

Update...
adjusted highs down by a degree or two across the northern
counties due to the continued cloud cover. Also bumped rain
chances up across parts of the area based on current radar trends
and high resolution models.

&&

Discussion...
the current radar picture shows showers extending from Kerrville to
Seguin to La Grange. There appears to be weak boundary that has
helped these showers form along this area of weak convergence. High
resolution models picked up on this band of increased
precipitation and show it persisting into the afternoon.

Coverage this afternoon is still expected to be less widespread
and more scattered compared to the last two days. For this reason
we are not going to reissue the watch at this time. We will
continue to monitor radar trends through the afternoon and if
activity looks to become more widespread across south central
Texas we will reassess a watch issuance.

It is important to remember that the airmass over the area remains
tropical. This means that localized totals of 1-2 inches of rain
with isolated totals up to 4 inches are still possible.

Treadway

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 639 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014/

Aviation...
scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will continue through the forecast period...mostly
in the vicinity of kaus through 15z...then at all taf sites from
roughly 21z to 03z...but most likely at kaus. LIFR at kaus this
morning should lift to IFR by 15z and MVFR by 18z. Winds will
generally be easterly and light through the forecast
period...except for sustained 10kt at kdrt with some higher gusts.

Previous discussion... /issued 405 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014/

Short term (today through saturday)...
the remnants of Odile will drift to the east across New Mexico
into Texas. Some moisture from Polo will move over southern Texas.
Precipitable waters will remain in the 1.8 to 2.2 inch range and scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected. Locally heavy rain is possible and
may cause some slight rises on creeks and streams in areas that
had very heavy rains Thursday. However...the threat has ended for
widespread flash flooding and have cancelled Flash Flood Watch.
Near average temperatures are expected.

Long term (saturday night through thursday)...
Sunday into Monday will be a transition as a lower to middle level
ridge begins to build into south central Texas from the northeast
and the remnants of Odile dissipate. Moisture levels slowly
decrease with mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday
becoming isolated Monday. On Tuesday through Thursday...the lower
to middle level ridge strengthens over south central Texas bringing
a drier and subsident airmass. Have removed probability of precipitation for Tuesday and
maintained no mention for Wednesday into Thursday. However...
sufficient moisture may allow for very isolated showers and
perhaps thunderstorms each afternoon. A cold front is no longer
expected with high temperatures remaining near to slightly above
seasonal averages while low temperatures cool slightly due to
lowering dewpoints.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 89 74 92 74 92 / 40 30 30 20 20
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 90 73 91 72 91 / 40 30 30 20 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 73 92 73 92 / 50 30 30 20 20
Burnet Muni Airport 89 72 89 72 90 / 40 30 30 30 30
del Rio International Airport 91 76 92 75 91 / 40 30 30 30 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 88 72 90 73 91 / 40 30 30 20 20
Hondo Muni Airport 92 74 92 74 92 / 40 30 30 30 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 90 73 91 73 91 / 50 30 30 20 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 91 74 90 74 91 / 50 30 30 20 20
San Antonio International Airport 91 75 92 75 92 / 50 30 30 20 30
Stinson Muni Airport 92 74 93 75 93 / 50 30 30 20 30

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...76
synoptic/grids...12
public service/data collection...33

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