Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1108 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016
Aviation... /06z tafs/
VFR skies may be threatened by some invading moisture from the
coastal prairies...and the dew point trends would suggest that
some fog...possibly an LIFR or lower ceiling could form over the I-35
terminals at daybreak. The taf conditions are kept conservative in
case the slightly stronger boundary layer winds drive a low
stratus layer into the area. A weak front partially clears out the
moisture over the taf sites later in the morning...but there is
some uncertainty over how far south the front will extend its
influence. VFR skies are forecast for the rest of the 24 hour
tafs...but the 30 hour taf windows at aus/Sat could be impacted by
similar cloud layers. Will defer to slightly higher cloud layers
to account for the frontal inversion at least prior to daybreak
Previous discussion... /issued 916 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016/
the forecast has been updated to lower overnight minimums a few
degrees across The Hill Country. Dry air along with clear skies
and fairly light winds should lead to good radiational cooling
over the above mentioned area tonight. Otherwise...we expect an
increase in low-level moisture to lead to patchy fog development
early tomorrow morning for most areas east of I-35. Finally...we
have adjusted hourly winds...temperatures and dew points to better
align with recent observations.
Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016/
Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
latest visible and infrared satellite images are depicting few
high level clouds along a cold front boundary over central Texas.
The weak cold front will slowly push to the south overnight into
Friday morning. Recent weather guidance are in good agreement with
the passage of this cold front overnight across south central
Texas (northern hill country). Patchy fog is possible across the
coastal plains counties overnight into Friday morning ahead of the
cold front. No rain chances expected with the frontal boundary.
Overnight lows will drop into the 40s across The Hill Country to
the lower 50s across the coastal plains.
Expect mostly sunny to sunny skies across the area Friday.
Daytime temperatures will be 2 to 5 degrees cooler than todays
ranging from the middle 70s along Interstate 35 to lower 80s along
the Rio Grande. Northeast to east winds of 5 to 10 miles per hour are
expected through the period. Overnight lows will be cooler late
Friday/Saturday morning across the area as a shallow cooler
airmass spreads across the region in the wake of the cold front.
Long term (saturday through thursday)...
with a cooler airmass in place...saturdays high temperatures are
expected to reach the upper 60s across the northeast and middle 70s
across the Rio Grande and southwest counties. These temperatures
are more aligned with climate normals to this time of the year.
Several upper level disturbances in combination with a short wave
trough are forecast to push across the area late Saturday into
Monday. At the surface...a weak cold front is anticipated to move
across the area Monday. With this scenario in place...the eastern
half of south central Texas will be favored for light drizzle and
light rain on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall accumulations are
expected to be limited to one tenth of an inch or less as
precipitable water values are expected to be slightly above the
median moving average (0.81 inches Sunday February 14 and Monday
Dry and warmer weather conditions return Tuesday and prevail
through Thursday of next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 51 77 47 68 51 / 0 0 0 0 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 43 76 44 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 45 78 45 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 10
Burnet Muni Airport 46 74 44 66 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
del Rio International Airport 46 83 49 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 46 74 43 67 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
Hondo Muni Airport 41 82 44 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 44 76 45 69 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 52 77 48 68 50 / 0 0 0 - 10
San Antonio International Airport 47 79 47 69 52 / 0 0 0 0 10
Stinson Muni Airport 47 80 48 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 10
public service/data collection...33