Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1149 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Aviation...
VFR flying conditions will prevail overnight through Friday night.
However...few-sct MVFR level clouds are expected early Friday
morning and late Friday night. S to southeast winds 4 to 12 kts will
prevail with the highest winds late Friday afternoon into early
evening.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 632 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014/

Aviation...
isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will persist into the evening hours. Have vcsh and
wind gusts to 30 kts at kdrt through 02z. Otherwise...VFR flying
conditions will prevail tonight through Friday evening. However
.Few-scattered MVFR level clouds are expected early Friday morning.
S to southeast winds 4 to 11 kts will prevail.

Previous discussion... /issued 331 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014/

Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
it looks like the impacts of early morning convection have settled
down enough for US to get a handle on prospects for late this
afternoon and evening. In short...the I-35 corridor from San
Antonio north to Georgetown has stabilized enough that no further
storms are expected. The coastal plains are likely also
stabilized...but proximity to the sea-breeze and diurnal heating
to the east may result in a storm or two...so left probability of precipitation in this
area. Otherwise...the Rio Grande plains and Edwards Plateau were
not affected by convection earlier today...so instability is still
sufficient for convection to continue through sunset. The upper
ridge builds back over Texas starting Friday...so look for a
rebound in maximum temperatures to near normal values.

Long term (saturday through thursday)...
the upper ridge will slowly build in The Rockies and High
Plains...maintaining influence on our area for temperatures to rise
slightly to above normal over the weekend. The combination of
higher temperatures and moist Gulf air will push afternoon heat
index values back to the 100-105 range Saturday through Monday.
We will mention this in the severe weather potential statement for now and possibly with an Special Weather Statement
issued tomorrow to highlight specific areas with the highest
values.

The medium range models are still in excellent agreement with the
general pattern change from the middle to end of next week. The coolest
air and best chance for rain are slightly beyond our official
seven-day-forecast...but there is a consistent signal for at least
one front to make it through most of our area...and then wash out
and/or stall by the end of the week. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) MOS guidance
are far too warm with maximum temperatures...as the models likely do not
see the shallow cold air due to poorer vertical resolution...so
the forecast shows temperatures 3-5f below MOS for now. There is a high
likelihood we will drop temperatures a few more degrees and raise probability of precipitation
substantially for next Thursday through Saturday...as observations
of the cool air mass over the northern and Central Plains and model
guidance become clearer.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 74 98 76 99 76 / - 0 - - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 73 97 73 98 75 / - 0 - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 97 74 98 75 / - - - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 73 97 74 97 75 / - 0 - 0 -
del Rio International Airport 76 99 77 100 78 / 20 - - - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 97 75 97 76 / - 0 - - -
Hondo Muni Airport 73 97 74 99 75 / 20 - - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 73 97 74 98 75 / - - - - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 74 96 75 96 75 / 20 - - - -
San Antonio International Airport 75 97 76 98 76 / - - - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 74 97 75 99 75 / - - - - -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...04
synoptic/grids...25

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations