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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1057 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation discussion...for 06z taf package...
forecast has not changed much since the 00z taf package...still
thinking IFR and eventually LIFR ceilings and fog are likely for all
terminals given the high amounts of low level moisture in the
atmosphere overnight tonight. Marginal improvement may occur in
the middle morning but otherwise very poor aviation conditions will
persist through the next 8-12 hours.

Tb3



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 936 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Update...
ran another update to increase probability of precipitation based on increasing radar
trends. There are a still a few spots still at 32 degrees this
evening...but calls to local officials report no Road problems.

Hampshire

Previous discussion... /issued 603 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Update...
weak warm air/moisture advection will lead to areas of fog across
much of the area tonight. Added the mention of the fog to the
forecast. Also ran an hourly grid update to account for current
trends with temperatures. Most high-res guidance shows a steady or
slightly rising temperature tonight with the weak warm air
advection in place.

Hampshire

Previous discussion... /issued 537 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Aviation discussion...for 00z taf package...
very poor aviation outlook for the next 24 hours. The entire
region is socked in with IFR ceilings with the exception of kdrt
sitting at low end MVFR. On top of that MVFR br or worse is being
observed across much of the region. Forecast soundings and guidance
indicates that conditions will only worsen throughout the next 12
hours. Expecting LIFR visible/ceiling conditions to occur in the next few
hours at kaus and towards morning for ksat/kssf/kdrt. Some minor
improvement may occur during the morning hours but it likely wont
be in the next 30+ hours before improvement above IFR conditions
returns.

Tb3

Previous discussion... /issued 255 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...
upper air analysis this morning showed an east west oriented
trough over the northwest states with nearly zonal flow across the
southern half of the country. In the low levels...isentropic flow
from the south was moving over a cold surface layer with widespread
drizzle. Moist air was trapped below an 800mb-700mb inversion.
During this period the trough in the west will swing down along
the West Coast and this will turn the flow over Texas to the
southwest. Isentropic upglide will continue over the eastern half
of the area with drizzle or light rain possible through the
period. Temperatures will warm through the period.

Long term (monday through saturday)...
the upper trough in the west will slowly drop down along the West
Coast through the middle of the week. Isentropic lift will
continue to produce chances for light rain Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday a cold front will move through the area and this will
bring a chance for thunderstorms. Behind the front cold air will
settle move in and we will have another chance for winter weather
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This will be over the
northeastern counties. High pressure will move in for the end of
the week bringing dry weather.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 35 53 45 57 54 / 60 20 40 30 30
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 35 53 44 58 54 / 70 20 40 30 30
New Braunfels Muni Airport 36 57 48 61 54 / 60 20 30 30 30
Burnet Muni Airport 32 50 41 53 53 / 40 20 40 30 40
del Rio International Airport 42 62 50 66 55 / 20 10 20 20 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 34 51 42 55 54 / 50 20 50 30 30
Hondo Muni Airport 40 60 50 64 53 / 30 20 20 30 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 35 55 47 59 54 / 60 20 30 30 30
La Grange - Fayette regional 42 59 51 62 61 / 70 30 30 40 20
San Antonio International Airport 37 58 50 62 56 / 40 20 20 30 30
Stinson Muni Airport 38 59 51 63 56 / 40 20 20 30 30

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...03
synoptic/grids...29
public service/data collection...00

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