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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
632 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Aviation.../12z taf cycle/

MVFR conditions have developed at kdrt with some brief IFR moments
as well. The MVFR/IFR stratus deck as developed over the southern
Edwards Plateau and The Hill Country as expected but has not
impacted ksat/kssf thus far. There still remains a possibility this
lower IFR/MVFR deck edges towards ksat now through 14-15z before
mixing out. Have taken the MVFR ceilings out for now but will quickly
amend if cloud layer looks to advance upon ksat. VFR should return
to all sites through the morning hours with kdrt the last to
improve. Ongoing rain showers/thunderstorms and rain along the Texas coast will shift north
through the morning and expand in coverage and intensity by early
afternoon. Feel this activity will likely impact kssf/ksat and have
continued with tempo group fro thunderstorms and rain 19-23z. Have placed thunderstorms in the vicinity for
kaus with a couple hours delay beyond ksat timing and vcsh for kdrt
for 3 hours this afternoon (21-00z). All activity should dissipate by
early to middle evening. Surface winds will pick up to 10-15 knots this
afternoon with gusts to 20 knots at times. Even higher gusts approaching 30-
40 knots could occur in vicinity of stronger storms and outflow boundaries.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 315 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015/

Short term (today through thursday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed a high over the west
centered over Utah...a trough over the eastern half of the
country...and a weak inverted trough extending out of Mexico into
south Texas. At the surface...high pressure was centered over the
Gulf and winds were from the southeast with dew point temperatures
in the 70s. After the rain Tuesday temperatures were about five
degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The upper level inverted trough
will push up again today and allow convection to form over our
southern half today. Precipitable water is expected to be between 1.5 and 1.9
inches and storm motion will be slow...so locally heavy rain is
possible. The set up is similar to Tuesday. Convection will be
diurnially driven and we expect it to dissipate through the
evening. Thursday the upper high will build down to the southeast
and resulting height rises should prevent convection.

Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
the upper level high will dominate Thursday night and Friday with
a continued dry period. For the weekend...the two upper troughs
will once again erode the ridge. Height falls should be sufficient
to allow daytime convection again Saturday and Sunday. The best
chances for rain will be across the eastern half of the County Warning Area.
Locally heavy rain will be possible with precipitable water expected near 1.75
inches and slow moving storms. The upper ridge will build back in
for Monday and Tuesday ending rain chances.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 92 73 91 74 92 / 20 - - 0 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 91 73 91 73 92 / 20 - 10 0 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 72 91 73 91 / 40 10 10 0 -
Burnet Muni Airport 90 72 89 73 91 / 10 - - 0 10
del Rio International Airport 92 72 91 74 94 / 10 10 - 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 90 73 90 74 92 / 10 - - 0 10
Hondo Muni Airport 90 71 91 73 92 / 30 10 10 10 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 90 72 91 74 91 / 30 10 10 0 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 91 73 91 75 91 / 30 10 10 - 10
San Antonio International Airport 90 73 91 75 92 / 30 10 10 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 90 73 92 74 92 / 40 10 10 - -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...Allen
synoptic/grids...05

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