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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
536 am CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through this taf
period. Models are suggesting some fog at the San Antonio airports
Friday morning...but have large dew point depression making fog
formation seem unlikely. Winds should pick up to 10 to 15 kts
later this morning and continue until this evening.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 341 am CST Thursday Feb 11 2016/

Short term (today through friday)...
a weak middle level shortwave moving through the northwesterly flow
aloft forces a surface trough to move across the Southern Plains.
South to southwest lower level flow into the trough continues the
warmer...well above normal...temperatures today. Some moisture
return may allow patchy fog to develop southeast of I-35 early
Friday morning. As the surface trough moves further east...a weak
cold front sags into central Texas on Friday. Slightly cooler
temperatures are expected for central Texas on Friday with little
change elsewhere.

Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
a surface high surging across the plains forces the front through
the remainder of south central Texas Friday night. Cold advection
is minimal and only slightly cooler temperatures are expected on
Saturday. The surface high moves off to the east on Saturday as a
weak middle level trough moves across The Rockies allowing southerly
lower level flow to return. Moisture increases to closer to normal
levels for middle February Sunday. Weak isentropic lift and low level
jet forcing may allow for patchy drizzle across The Hill Country
to along the Escarpment Sunday morning. Afternoon mixing will dry
the airmass most areas and have removed showers for the I-35
corridor. Deeper moisture lingers along the Highway 77 corridor
Sunday through Monday when a weak cold front moves across our area
in the wake of the middle level trough passage and have kept slight
chances of light showers there. Upper level ridging over the
western states early next week shifts to the east middle to late
week. A dry airmass and southwesterly lower to middle level flow
maintains well above normal temperatures next week.



Fire weather...
elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon from
the eastern Hill Country across the I-35 corridor to just west of
the coastal plains. Relative humidities in the upper teens to
lower 20s with south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour expected.
Further west...relative humidities will fall into the middle
teens... though winds will be 5 miles per hour or less. Closer to the coastal
plains relative humidities will be higher.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 81 50 77 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 79 45 76 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 80 47 79 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 80 46 75 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio International Airport 82 46 83 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 80 47 75 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 81 43 81 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 79 46 77 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 79 52 77 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 -
San Antonio International Airport 80 48 79 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 81 47 80 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...05
synoptic/grids...04

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