Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1239 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Aviation...a surge of Gulf moisture has worked its way into
region as surface high pressure shifts east and a weakening front
returns north. Light to moderate east and southeast winds to keep
clouds in the most part in across the area this afternoon with
western areas near kdrt seeing VFR conditions with the tight
moisture gradient remaining to the east. MVFR ceilings in the ksat
region to lift to VFR around 20z with broken ceilings at around 5k feet.
Looks like the lower clouds will remain to the south of kaus with
VFR to prevail. The low level Gulf moisture to remain across the
area tonight with IFR to MVFR ceilings developing after midnight from
ksat to kaus and spreading west to kdrt around or shortly before
sunrise Thursday. Clouds to hang in through the morning with
better mixing Thursday afternoon to break up the stratus and help
ceilings rise.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 626 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Aviation...
a band of MVFR ceilings has developed along the Rio Grande including
kdrt while VFR few-scattered stratus prevails north of kuva to kpez to
k3t5 line and scattered-broken stratus prevails south of line. Expect
IFR/LIFR visibilities east of a Kile to kt35 to k11r line and IFR/LIFR
ceilings southeast of a k11r to kcot line to remain just east and
southeast of south central Texas. VFR skies will return to the Rio
Grande by late morning. MVFR ceilings will develop across south
central Texas overnight tonight and then mix out by late Thursday
morning. Variable winds less than 5 kts will become S to southeast at 5
to 12 kts across all of south central Texas by late morning into
early afternoon and then prevail tonight into Thursday morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 314 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Short term (today through thursday)...
early this morning the weak frontal/outflow boundary extended from
Eagle Pass to Three Rivers to Eagle Lake. Convection was still
firing on this boundary across southeast Texas. The mesoscale-high
located over northeast Texas will weaken today with southeast low
level flow becoming re-established this afternoon across south
central Texas. Afternoon highs will be slightly above normal
ranging from the upper 80s across The Hill Country to middle 90s
along the Rio Grande. Low clouds will roll in after midnight with
a typical muggy night expected with morning lows slightly above
normal. Thursday will start out cloudy but the afternoon will be
mostly sunny and hot with highs closer to middle/late June normals.
Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
a north/south upper level ridge axis will still be located over
Texas on Friday and will remain entrenched across the region through
the Holiday weekend. The ridge aloft will flatten out early next
week as an upper level trough deepens over the western U.S. This
is a dry synoptic scale pattern for south central Texas so no
significant rainfall is expected. The persistent ridging aloft
will also result in above normal temperatures. The surface
pattern will be a persistent S to southeast low level fetch of the Gulf
of Mexico. Thus the familiar late Spring/early Summer pattern of
late night and morning low clouds can be expected.
MOS guidance for high temperatures is trending towards climatology.
Have gone above MOS guidance a couple of degrees based on our
bias-corrected database.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 91 71 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 90 69 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 70 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 - -
Burnet Muni Airport 88 68 91 70 89 / 0 0 0 - -
del Rio International Airport 96 74 97 73 94 / 0 0 0 - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 88 69 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 - -
Hondo Muni Airport 93 71 96 72 93 / 0 0 0 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 90 70 92 71 91 / 0 0 0 - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 89 72 91 73 91 / - 0 0 - -
San Antonio International Airport 92 73 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 91 72 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 - -
&&
Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/aviation...99
synoptic/grids...99
