Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1150 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. Light/vrb
winds overnight will become east-southeasterly 5 to 10 kts Wednesday
Previous discussion... /issued 636 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the taf period.
Could see brief MVFR stratus at ksat/kssf in the near dawn hours.
Surface winds will be southeast-southerly mostly 5 to 10 kts overnight...with a
slight backing to the southeast-east Wednesday afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 338 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/
Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...
the strong upper ridge has put a lid on convection across most of
Texas this afternoon. We do not expect any showers or thunderstorms
from now through the night. Look for a repeat on Wednesday for
most of our area...as the ridge essentially stays in place.
However...we did add small probability of precipitation for the far eastern coastal plains
as precipitable water increases (quite substantially in the NAM...less so in the
gfs) and the sea-breeze may be enough to generate isolated storms.
Long term (thursday through tuesday)...
a TUTT-low (or at least an upper-level trough) now over southeast
Louisiana will move west-southwest and eventually all the way to
the lower Rio Grande...and beyond. We stayed near the previous
forecast and kept low probability of precipitation for the plains east of the I-35
corridor on Thursday. Without a strong surface focus other than
the sea-breeze...and increasing middle-level capping and lower precipitable water to
the west...it seems convection will have a hard time moving west.
Beyond Thursday...the upper level ridge re-configures to a more
meridional (north-south) orientation...as a deep trough forms over
the Great Lakes. Despite the orientation change...the ridge will
still maintain near or above normal temperatures through the
middle of next week. There are some indications in the GFS/European model (ecmwf)
for a backdoor cold front to move into East Texas by the middle of
next week. There is too much uncertainty at this forecast range to
mention probability of precipitation in the forecast...other than we will be monitoring
this in coming days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 99 75 100 76 / - - - - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 74 98 73 99 74 / - - - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 98 73 99 73 / - - - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 74 98 73 97 74 / 0 - - - -
del Rio International Airport 79 100 78 100 79 / - 10 10 - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 76 97 75 99 75 / - - - - -
Hondo Muni Airport 74 99 73 98 74 / - - - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 97 73 98 73 / - - - - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 77 96 75 98 76 / 10 20 20 20 20
San Antonio International Airport 76 98 76 98 76 / - - - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 75 98 75 98 75 / - - - - -
public service/data collection...00