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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
405 am CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Short term (today through thursday)...
satellite precipitable water imagery and evening radiosonde observation data show a tropically
moist airmass across south central Texas with precipitable waters of 1.8 to 2.3
inches. Rich middle and upper level moisture will persist as weakened
Tropical Storm Odile moves from far northern Gulf of California
across Arizona into New Mexico. A weak southeasterly lower lower
level flow will maintain a supply of Gulf of Mexico moisture.
Currently have widely scattered showers from the San Antonio area
west to the Rio Grande. Expect showers and thunderstorms to become
more numerous with daytime heating and then generally decrease
with loss of heating at night. The greatest areal coverage and
rainfall amounts will be over eastern and northeastern areas where
the highest precipitable waters are located. Locally heavy rainfall is expected in
these areas with isolated rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches which
may cause some minor flooding. However...average rainfall amounts
will be in the 1 to 2 inch range. 00z NAM is likely an outlier
with its heavier rainfall totals across the eastern Hill Country
to along I-35.

&&

Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
moisture from former tropical cyclone Odile will slowly decrease
Friday into this weekend. Expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is
still possible on Friday. A cold front will drop south into Texas
early next week and have gone with slight chance probability of precipitation due to
moisture convergence in the frontal zone. Models are now having
some disagreement on the amount of drying and cooling behind the
front with the European model (ecmwf) being the most aggressive. Will go between
the GFS and European model (ecmwf).

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 91 74 88 71 90 / 70 70 60 30 40
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 91 71 88 70 89 / 70 70 60 30 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 73 89 72 89 / 60 60 50 30 40
Burnet Muni Airport 89 72 87 70 88 / 60 60 60 30 40
del Rio International Airport 90 74 91 76 89 / 30 20 30 20 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 90 74 86 71 89 / 70 70 60 30 40
Hondo Muni Airport 90 73 91 73 91 / 50 40 40 30 40
San Marcos Muni Airport 90 73 88 71 89 / 70 70 60 30 40
La Grange - Fayette regional 89 74 87 73 90 / 80 70 60 30 50
San Antonio International Airport 90 76 90 75 90 / 60 50 50 30 40
Stinson Muni Airport 91 75 91 75 91 / 60 50 40 30 40

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...09
synoptic/grids...04

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