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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
641 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

Aviation...
east to northeast winds have brought drier air to the region and
conditions will be VFR through the entire period at all terminals.
Winds will be light and variable overnight becoming southeasterly
late morning Sunday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015/

Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...
daytime heating working on deeper moisture with precipitable waters of 1.6 to 1.8
inches has allowed isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop
over the Edwards Plateau this afternoon. This deeper moisture will
slowly erode this evening as a drier airmass with below normal precipitable waters
of 1.2 to 1.6 inches continues to filter in from the east. Expect
showers and thunderstorms to dissipate a little after sunset with
loss of daytime heating and the drier airmass.

For Sunday...the subtropical ridge remains from the southwestern
states into the Southern Plains. Strong subsidence underneath the
ridge and below normal moisture levels will not allow for rain.
Daytime temperatures continue to be slightly above normal with
some highs around 100. Heat index values will be near or just
above actual temperatures as drier air aloft mixes to the surface
during the daytime hours.

Long term (monday through saturday)...
the Sunday pattern continues next week into next weekend with no
rain expected and slightly above average daytime temperatures.
Lower level flow off the Gulf of Mexico strengthens by middle week
increasing humidity levels allowing for heat index values above
105 during the afternoon hours southeast of I-35 and in spots
along the Rio Grande.

The only potential for any rain may be from an old surface
boundary currently in the Gulf of Mexico that moves onshore to
generate some showers and thunderstorms. Most models dissipate
this boundary over the Gulf with no impacts to south central
Texas.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 74 101 75 100 76 / - 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 69 100 73 99 73 / - 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 100 73 100 74 / - 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 73 99 73 99 75 / - 0 0 0 0
del Rio International Airport 77 101 77 101 79 / 10 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 71 98 74 100 75 / - 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 73 99 73 99 73 / - 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 100 73 99 75 / - 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 72 100 73 99 76 / - 0 0 - 0
San Antonio International Airport 76 99 75 99 76 / - 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 75 100 74 100 76 / - 0 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...05
synoptic/grids...09

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