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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
326 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

Short term (today through wednesday)...the upper level low that
was centered just south of nm/Arizona will continue to open and weaken
this morning. Drier air in the lower levels will move into the
area from the east today...with the moist axis being nudged
slightly farther west. Low probability of precipitation today will be confined to the Rio
Grande counties and on Wednesday to western Val Verde County.
Highs today and Wednesday near or slightly warmer than previous
couple of days.

&&

Long term (wednesday night through monday)...the models are in
good agreement now with upper level pattern from the middle part
of the week and into the weekend. A weak upper level trough axis
and modest 70-80 knots upper level...sub-tropical jet streak will
move across south-central Texas Wednesday night into Thursday. Where the
models disagree is with respect to middle level moisture and
forcing...with the European model (ecmwf) and CMC more robust than the GFS. Given
the drier low level air moving into the eastern half of the County Warning Area
over the next 36 hours tend to favor a drier solution along and
east of I-35 for now...with low probability of precipitation for elevated showers across
The Hill Country and Edwards Plateau Wednesday night and Thursday where
moisture is better. A slight decrease in highs possible Thursday.

The upper level trough will move quickly east Thursday night...with
upper level ridging building across the County Warning Area Friday and Sat...then
flattening on sun...and moving east Monday. This will result in dry
conditions with generally seasonal morning lows Friday through
sun...and warmer afternoon highs.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 83 61 84 61 81 / - - - 10 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 83 56 84 56 81 / - - - 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 58 86 60 84 / - - - 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 82 58 82 59 79 / - - - 10 20
del Rio International Airport 81 64 81 65 81 / 30 20 10 20 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 82 58 83 59 80 / - - - 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 85 55 85 59 82 / - - - 10 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 84 57 85 58 82 / - - - 10 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 84 59 84 59 81 / - - - - 10
San Antonio International Airport 86 61 86 63 83 / - - - 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 86 60 86 62 83 / - - - 10 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...05
synoptic/grids...76

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