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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
645 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

Aviation...
/12z tafs/
VFR conditions will prevail through late tonight across the area sites.
An area of low pressure across the northwest Gulf of Mexico waters
is producing showers and thunderstorms. This feature will continue
to get closer to the southern Texas coast today and Friday. Best
chances for convection are across the coastal waters and coastal
plains/east of Interstate 35. Hires models suggest showers and
storms pushing to the northwest and across the coastal plains by
middle-afternoon and lasting through the evening. Winds will be from
the east and southeast 5 to 15 knots through the forecast cycle.
MVFR conditions are expected late tonight as low level moisture
increases as the surface low sits few miles east of Padre Island.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 322 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014/

Short term (today through friday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed an easterly wave at 500mb
moving into the Texas coast weakening the subtropical ridge
stretched across the southern part of the country. A trough
extended down The Rockies from Wyoming. At the surface...high
pressure was centered to the northeast. The pressure gradient was
slack and winds were generally light. Dew points were down a few
degrees from 24 hours ago. During this period the northern stream
trough and the easterly wave will combine to split the subtropical
ridge over Texas. This will mean chances for thunderstorms mainly
during the afternoons and evenings of both today and Friday.
Chances look better Friday than today. Convective parameters are
forecast to suggest storms could be strong with wind gusts up to
50 miles per hour possible. There will also be a chance for locally heavy
rainfall particularly over the eastern counties where precipitable water is
expected to exceed two inches. Cloud cover and weakened subsidence
will keep temperatures down a few degrees.

Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
the subtropical ridge will slowly become re-established over the
weekend...but the slight troughiness over Texas will allow chances
for convection Friday night through Sunday retreating to the east
through the period. The ridge should be in control by Labor Day and
rain chances will come to an end. Models are developing another
easterly wave for the middle of next week. This one is farther
south. This may bring some thunderstorms to our eastern counties
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 97 76 96 76 96 / 20 20 30 20 20
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 98 74 96 73 95 / 20 20 40 20 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 74 97 74 96 / 20 20 30 20 20
Burnet Muni Airport 95 74 94 74 94 / 20 10 30 20 20
del Rio International Airport 99 78 97 77 99 / 10 10 20 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 96 76 94 75 94 / 20 20 40 20 20
Hondo Muni Airport 97 73 95 73 96 / 20 10 30 20 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 97 75 96 75 95 / 20 20 30 20 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 96 76 95 76 93 / 40 20 50 20 40
San Antonio International Airport 98 77 96 77 96 / 20 20 30 20 20
Stinson Muni Airport 99 76 96 76 97 / 20 20 30 20 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...17
synoptic/grids...05

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