Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
301 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Short term (tonight through Thursday night)... 
middle to upper level pattern is progressing as previously 
anticipated with trough moving to the Mississippi Valley and a 
ridge moving across nm. This will continue through the short term 
period with the ridge becoming dominant. At the surface high 
pressure is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico and the low 
level winds are becoming southeasterly. This will bring Gulf 
moisture back to the region quickly. This will be a dry pattern 
with warming temperatures. 


&& 


Long term (friday through wednesday)... 
there will not be much change in the long term forecast. The middle 
to upper level ridge will remain in place through the weekend and 
early next week. Models show a short wave trough moving through 
ridge Friday which will mean a slight chance for thunderstorms 
developing over the Mexican mountains and moving into our western 
area. Have included a small area of slight chance probability of precipitation Friday and 
Friday night. Otherwise...there are no chances for rain until the 
last period of the forecast when an upper level trough moves into 
western Texas bringing a chance for thunderstorms next Wednesday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 70 95 71 94 72 / 0 0 10 10 10 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 69 93 71 93 71 / 0 0 10 10 10 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 10 10 
Burnet Muni Airport 68 93 69 91 70 / 0 0 10 10 10 
del Rio International Airport 75 99 74 96 76 / 0 0 10 20 20 
Georgetown Muni Airport 69 92 70 91 70 / 0 0 10 10 10 
Hondo Muni Airport 71 97 72 96 73 / 0 0 10 10 10 
San Marcos Muni Airport 70 92 71 91 72 / 0 0 10 10 10 
La Grange - Fayette regional 73 92 74 93 74 / 0 0 10 10 10 
San Antonio International Airport 72 95 72 94 73 / 0 0 10 10 10 
Stinson Muni Airport 71 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 - 10 10 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Mesoscale/aviation...24 
synoptic/grids...05 
public service/data collection...32