Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
928 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Update...
no major changes to the forecast...the latest mesoscale models are
consistent in not showing any sea-breeze convection for this afternoon.
An update to the grids and tabular products will be sent to re-trend
hourly values through 18z.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 629 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/

Aviation...
once again this morning we have seen periods of MVFR ceilings at ksat
and kssf. Currently seeing large area of cirrus from convection to
the north moving south across the region. This may help to reduce
the coverage of the MVFR ceilings. For the most part will see VFR
conditions through the forecast period. May see a couple hours of
light fog at kaus right around sunrise. All fog and ceilings will
be gone by 14z. Light east winds will become S/southeast after 14z at
speeds of 7-10 knots. After 02z will see east/southeast winds decrease to
3-7 knots.

Previous discussion... /issued 337 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/

Short term (today through wednesday)...
temperatures will continue to warm through the short term portion
of the forecast as middle and upper level ridging remains dominant
across south central Texas. Heat indices may again approach 105
degrees across portions of the Rio Grande and coastal plains this
afternoon. We/ll opt to continue the Special Weather Statement to
address the expected heat indices today. Can/T rule out another
day of heat indices near 105 again on Wednesday...with the coastal
plains being favored due to recent higher rainfall amounts. As for
precipitation chances today...we will keep the forecast dry for
all areas. On Wednesday...a weak surface trough along with daytime
heating and the presence of a middle-level Theta-E ridge axis could
lead to isolated convection over the Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande plains.

Long term (wednesday night through monday)...
a Stout subtropical ridge axis will continue to remain the
dominant weather feature through the remainder of the forecast.
The models do show a weak upper trough retrograding across
southern Texas for Thursday through early Saturday. There is some
disagreement with regards to the exact path of this upper trough
and for now...we will keep the forecast dry. Late in the forecast
period the medium range models suggest the upper level ridge axis
will contract as an upper level low develops over the Great Lakes
region. If this pattern does eventually develop...we could see an
increase in precipitation chances in active northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures through the period will remain above normal with
highs in the middle 90s to lower 100s and overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 98 75 99 75 100 / 0 0 - 10 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 97 74 97 73 98 / 0 - - 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 74 97 73 99 / 0 - - 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 96 73 97 73 97 / 0 0 - - 10
del Rio International Airport 100 78 102 78 102 / 0 - 10 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 96 74 97 74 98 / 0 0 - 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 98 74 100 73 98 / 0 - - - 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 97 73 97 73 99 / 0 - - 10 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 96 76 96 75 96 / - - 20 10 20
San Antonio International Airport 97 76 97 76 98 / 0 0 - 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 98 75 99 74 99 / 0 - - 10 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...18
synoptic/grids...26
public service/data collection...32

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations