Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
345 am CDT Friday Apr 25 2014

Short term (today through saturday)...
shallow low level southeast winds will bring a patches of low
clouds and fog over the coastal prairies into San Antonio this
morning before drier air from the boundary layer upwards mixes in
drier air to dissipate the clouds toward noon. The arid low to middle
level clouds will allow for a warm-up to above normals...but the
evening dryness will be pleasant before humidities increase in the
overnight hours. The rush of moisture and increased low level
winds overnight will create some lift as height fields in the middle
and upper levels also begin to fall in advance of an approaching
storm system. Patchy light rain showers or drizzle will be
possible close to daybreak and lasting into the late morning hours
Saturday. Middle-level capping should hold through most of the
afternoon...but orographic influences could destabilize the air
for deeper convection over western counties late in the day.

&&

Long term (saturday night through thursday)...
by Saturday evening...the approaching storm system is expected to
produce lapse rates and wind shear sufficient for severe
thunderstorms. However...the base of the storm system is expected
to dry the air aloft while steepening the lapse rates. Thus the
storms Saturday night will have a tough time getting started
without help from a few cells popping off the higher elevations to
the west. The probable result is scattered showers and isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms...and most areas not expected to
see much more than a few hundredths of an inch for this best
chance of rain over the next week. By late Sunday morning...rain
chances diminish over the I-35 corridor...with only a few strong
to potentially severe storms over far eastern counties. With the
deepening upper low wobbling over the central US...hot...breezy
and dry conditions for Sunday and continuing on Monday will create
fire weather concerns and a few triple digit readings possible
over areas SW of San Antonio. The retrogression of the low is
expected to bring a moderate cold front and cooler conditions
Monday night into much of next week...but with minimal rain
chances. Late in the week...the European model (ecmwf) and GFS have trended toward
the last piece of energy from the upper low possibly generating
another slight chance of rain in an unstable northwest flow pattern aloft
for next Friday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 88 65 86 70 95 / - 10 20 40 20
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 87 63 86 69 94 / - 10 20 30 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 65 87 70 96 / - 20 20 30 20
Burnet Muni Airport 87 65 85 69 92 / - - 10 40 20
del Rio International Airport 93 69 95 70 98 / - - 20 30 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 87 65 85 69 91 / - - 20 40 30
Hondo Muni Airport 94 67 93 70 99 / - 20 20 30 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 88 64 86 70 95 / - 20 20 30 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 87 65 86 71 90 / - 20 20 20 30
San Antonio International Airport 91 67 89 70 97 / - 20 20 30 10
Stinson Muni Airport 92 67 91 71 98 / - 20 20 20 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...26
synoptic/grids...18