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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
930 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS.
THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPERATURES BY ONE DEGREE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF BEXAR COUNTY TO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPS AND GFS LAMP SUGGESTED MAX VALUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/ 

AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
FEW CIRRUS PASSING ACROSS THE SKY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. NWLY
WINDS 7 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME VRBL 5 KTS
OR LESS TONIGHT WITH SOME DRAINAGE OFF THE HILLS. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/ 

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH UPPER
20S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS WILL
BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW RETURN TO THE REGION AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN A WARM UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW IN THE SHORT-TERM BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND NOT EXPECTING ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG-TERM AS UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO OUR WEST. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOW. BY SATURDAY A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTH FLOW WOULD
QUICKLY RETURN BY SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW AS THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
PLAINS MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON THE TIMING BUT BOTH ARE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR 20 POPS FOR
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WHATEVER DOES FALL...LOOKS TO BE LIGHT. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  42  76  51  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  37  74  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69  39  76  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  39  74  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  41  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  38  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  38  77  42  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  39  74  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  40  73  48  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  42  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0   0 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  40  76  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17

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