Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
615 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014
areas of stratus with MVFR ceilings east of kcot to kuva to kaqo line
will dissipate by middle morning leaving VFR skies with few VFR level
cumulus and cirrus late morning through evening. Areas of stratus
with MVFR ceilings will redevelop overnight mainly east of kcot to kuva
to kaqo line and then dissipate by middle morning Sunday with VFR
skies by midday. S to southeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 kts late
morning through evening with gusts to 22 kts possible. Winds will
decrease to 7 kts or less tonight before increasing again Sunday.
Previous discussion... /issued 328 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014/
Short term (today through sunday)...
south central Texas remains on the periphery of a high pressure
currently centered over the southeast United States. The high
pressure will keep the area dry and hot through the weekend. With
no chances of precipitation the main weather story is the heat.
The good news is that across our western counties heat index
values will remain below 100. That is not the case across the
coastal plains. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 we
expect another day of heat index values above 105 along and south
of a line from Floresville to Gonzales to La Grange. Have elected
to keep the heat advisory through 7 PM this evening for this area.
Those out and about enjoying the last weekend before school starts
on Monday should be aware of the high heat index values and take
appropriate precautions to avoid heat exhaustion. Elevated fire
weather conditions are expected along the Rio Grande plains this
afternoon and evening.
Long term (sunday night through friday)...
the ridge continues to be the main weather feature for the start
of the work week. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and mostly dry
conditions can be expected for the first half of the week. Having
pushed off to the north and east the ridge will have less of a
grip on our temperatures. While temperatures will still be above
seasonal normals they should be a degree or two cooler.
A major change in the weather comes middle week. First models show a
weak shear axis moving along the Texas coast Tuesday and
Wednesday. This will act to enhance the sea breeze shower and
thunderstorm activity these two days. Middle Range models then show
an upper trough moving into the Central Plains on Wednesday. A
weak cold front will accompany the trough and stall across North
Texas on Thursday. This front looks similar to the other fronts we
have seen across central Texas this Summer. Most of our
precipitation with this trough/front will come from remnant
outflow boundaries left over from convection to our north closer
to the front. The best chances for precipitation and best lift look
to be Thursday afternoon through Friday as what is left of the
front pushes through our area. Because the front will be weak with
the main trough pushing off into the Ohio Valley will continue
only slight chance probability of precipitation for now. While this front will not have a
significant impact on temperatures it will drop them a few degrees
closer to our normal temperatures for this time of year.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 100 77 99 76 100 / - - - - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 100 75 100 73 100 / - - - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 75 100 74 100 / - - - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 97 75 97 75 98 / - - - - -
del Rio International Airport 100 80 99 78 99 / - - - - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 98 77 98 76 98 / - - - - -
Hondo Muni Airport 98 74 98 73 98 / - - - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 99 76 99 74 99 / - - - - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 100 78 100 77 101 / 0 - - - 10
San Antonio International Airport 99 79 99 77 99 / - - - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 100 77 100 76 100 / - - - - -
heat advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Delaware Witt...Fayette...Gonzales...Karnes...Lavaca...Wilson.