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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
654 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Aviation.../00z taf cycle/

VFR prevail this afternoon and will continue through middle to late
evening. However...expect MVFR ceilings to develop similar to last night
for central taf sites 06-08z. Ceilings will likely fall further to IFR
10-14z for these sites plus kdrt given NAM bufr sounding output.
Surface winds out of the S/southeast near 10-15 knots this evening will calm
to less than 10 knots and then pick back up Saturday 10-15 knots. Initial
low clouds Saturday will mix out middle to late morning to VFR.
Isolated rain showers and some thunderstorms and rain could be near central sites 19-00z. Will
continue to monitor trends if vcsh/ts needs to be mentioned
directly in tafs.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 237 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015/

Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...
isolated showers and maybe one thunderstorm will develop and move
from south to north across the coastal plains through late
afternoon. Otherwise...the typical Summer pattern of warm...humid...
and mostly cloudy nights...followed by partly cloudy and hot
days...will continue through the end of next week. There will be
isolated showers and thunderstorms where precipitable water is highest across the
coastal plains both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

Long term (sunday through friday)...
the upper level ridge will build across the Southern Plains and
flatten out a bit next week. No rain is expected next week other
than low probability of precipitation in Val Verde County on Tuesday afternoon due to
proximity to the upstream longwave trough over the southwest U.S..
both high and low temperatures will increase to near or slightly
above normal values for this time of year...but no excessive heat
is expected. Longer range projections of the mjo indicate most of
July may remain dry across south central Texas.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 92 76 93 76 / 0 10 - 10 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 74 91 75 92 76 / 0 10 - 10 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 91 74 92 75 / 0 10 10 10 -
Burnet Muni Airport 73 91 74 91 74 / 0 10 0 10 0
del Rio International Airport 75 93 76 95 77 / 10 10 10 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 92 75 92 76 / 0 10 0 10 0
Hondo Muni Airport 73 91 75 93 75 / - 10 10 10 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 91 75 92 75 / 0 10 10 10 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 75 91 75 92 77 / 0 20 - 20 0
San Antonio International Airport 75 92 76 92 76 / - 10 10 10 -
Stinson Muni Airport 75 92 76 92 76 / - 10 10 10 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...Allen
synoptic/grids...09

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