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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
647 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Aviation...
/12z tafs/
today's first round of showers are affecting the Austin area
terminals with VFR conditions prevailing at all sites. A second round
of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated later in the
afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves across south central
Texas. Opted to leave out mentioning rain showers/thunderstorms and rain from the 12z tafs
package as anticipated showers or storms will be isolated and
difficult to pinpoint at this time. Winds will be light and
variable through about noon today and becoming southeasterly at 5
to 10 knots in the afternoon. Otherwise...VFR conditions to
dominate the area sites for the forecast period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 352 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014/

Short term (today through friday)...
northeasterly flow aloft is well entrenched across south central
Texas per area 24/00z radiosonde observation data. This pattern usually does not
Bode well for precipitation. However...the latest radar data does
show some weak echoes developing across portions of central Texas.
This activity is likely enhanced by a middle-level shortwave trough
moving through the central portion of the state early this
morning. In addition...a surface trough located roughly along an
Austin to Rocksprings line as of 06z could aid in the development
of convection today. The hi-res RUC...3km Texas tech WRF and sref
are in good agreement in showing additional convection this
afternoon across a good portion of south central Texas. Based on
the above...we have included a 20% chance for showers and
thunderstorms across most areas today. A decrease in activity is
expected with the loss of daytime heating and with subsidence
moving in behind the middle-level shortwave trough. On Friday... a
few showers and storms remain possible across the coastal
plains... with the remainder of the region expected to remain dry.
Otherwise...hot and humid conditions will persist through Friday
with highs in the middle 90s to near 100 and lows in the 70s.

Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
the flow aloft slowly begins to change from northeast to east this
weekend as the dominant subtropical ridge axis expands across the
region. With this pattern intact...we expect dry weather along with
continued hot and humid conditions through the weekend. For the
early and middle portion of the upcoming work week...the medium
range models continue to remain consistent with the large scale
flow pattern across the Continental U.S.. the subtropical ridge will
retrograde into the Desert Southwest...while a deep trough
develops over the eastern half of the lower 48. This will bring
northwest flow aloft to south central Texas beginning Tuesday and
continuing through next week. A cold front is expected to
gradually work southward into Texas next week...with the timing of
this front likely controlled by the amount of convection that
develops near the boundary. MOS guidance probability of precipitation are rather low...but
given the pattern...would not be surprised if later data began to
show an increase in precipitation chances. For now...we will keep
probability of precipitation low (20%) for Tuesday and Wednesday...with locations
generally north of I-10 remaining favored for precipitation.
Temperatures should also begin a slow downward trend next
week...but current data suggests that will not happen until
Wednesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 99 76 100 76 99 / 20 20 - - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 98 73 99 73 98 / 20 20 - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 73 99 73 99 / 20 20 - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 97 74 97 74 97 / 20 10 - - 0
del Rio International Airport 100 77 100 77 101 / 10 10 - - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 97 75 98 75 98 / 20 20 - - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 98 73 98 74 99 / 20 20 - - 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 97 73 98 74 98 / 20 20 - - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 97 75 98 76 97 / 20 20 20 10 10
San Antonio International Airport 97 76 98 76 98 / 20 20 - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 98 75 98 75 99 / 20 20 10 - -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...17
synoptic/grids...24
public service/data collection...00

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