Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1244 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015
VFR conditions are expected across area terminals for
the next 24 to 30 hours. Winds will be from the south and
southeast around 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 18 knots across
the Rio Grande especially this afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 628 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/
Update...12z aviation update below.
Aviation....VFR conditions are expected across south-central
Texas and area taf sites over the next 24 hours. Across central
and eastern areas...including aus/Sat...vrb winds around 5 kts
or less early this morning becoming SW 6-12 knots late morning then
becoming southeast late afternoon. Along the Rio Grande near drt...vrb
winds around 5 kts early this morning becoming south-southeast 10-15 kts late
morning. A few higher gusts near 20 kts possible late morning
through the afternoon out near drt.
Previous discussion... /issued 338 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/
Short term (today through saturday)...
not much to speak of in the forecast for the short term other than
the Prospect for elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon
across the Rio Grande plains. All mesoscale models are
highlighting an area spanning from the del Rio area northwest to
have gust potential to 20+ miles per hour this afternoon and MOS guidance
also confirms that. As forecast soundings in this area continue to
show potential for air from aloft mixing down to the surface...do
think some local areas could see relative humidity values plummet to the teens
with some modest isallobaric wind gusts to boot. As soils continue
to be very dry and the area has already seen numerous ignitions
over the last few weeks...this far western area will need to be
Continued dry air is expected Saturday but with some minor
improvement in the min relative humidity forecast. Otherwise...saturdays forecast
will be largely similar to today. Winds will shift back to the
southeast late in the day Saturday however to begin some further
low level moisture recovery.
Long term (saturday night through thursday)...
the forecast focus has been on a weak low pressure center expected
to park itself over the eastern Texas and western Louisiana Gulf
coasts. 00z model runs continue to show this feature with little
change in detail over the last 24 hours. The positioning of the
low will favor subsidence left of center and thus will likely keep
the majority of the County Warning Area dry through next week. Continued to
maintain slight chance probability of precipitation in the coastal plains counties each
day for the possibility for some stray showers drifting northwest
from near the coast.
Otherwise...attention shifted to the latest model depictions of
ts Erika now located just south of Puerto Rico. Still significant
discrepancies exist...with each comparative model...and within
individual model runs. The one consistency is the general
downtrend in overall intensity potential with this model suite.
However...as such...a bit farther westward track may result in
this less defined dynamical pattern. While this still does not
appear to have any direct effect to Texas...the outcome of Erika
should influence the evolution of the weak low to our east. To
what extent...hard to say at the current moment...therefore will
refrain from speculation.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 74 97 74 94 74 / 0 0 - - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 71 95 70 93 72 / 0 0 - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 97 73 95 74 / 0 0 - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 72 95 72 93 72 / 0 0 - - -
del Rio International Airport 72 99 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 73 95 73 94 74 / 0 0 - - -
Hondo Muni Airport 69 97 70 95 71 / 0 0 - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 96 72 94 73 / 0 0 - - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 72 95 72 94 74 / 0 0 - - 10
San Antonio International Airport 74 95 74 94 76 / 0 0 - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 72 97 73 96 75 / 0 0 - - -
public service/data collection...LH