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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
551 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

low ceilings are hanging in behind the cold front. Ceilings will remain
MVFR for the next few hours. There are some rain showers moving
toward aus from the south and may impact the Airport within the
next couple of hours. They should be light and have minor impact
on visible. Ceilings will lower to IFR this evening in Austin and San
Antonio and to LIFR at aus overnight. IFR ceilings will develop at drt
overnight. There will be continue to be chances for showers
through this evening and overnight...but pinning down where and
when is not possible at this time. Any showers will only lower visible
to MVFR. Not much improvement on Sunday except at drt where they
should go to VFR during the afternoon.


Previous discussion... /issued 227 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015/

Short term (tonight through sunday)...

No hazard highlights through the end of the weekend as much below
normal temperatures and damp conditions will remain in place.

The airmass that originated in the northern plains that moved in
yesterday remains well entrenched across the region in the lowest
3500 feet. Temperatures are struggling to warm due to evaporative
cooling and the overcast conditions. The north wind of 10 to 15
miles per hour is also making it feel like the middle to upper 30s in The Hill
Country and portions of the I-35 corridor this afternoon. Light
showers will continue across the coastal plains this afternoon
with a uptick in coverage over The Hill Country expected
overnight. The clouds will act as an insulator this evening with
temperatures staying steady if not slightly rising overnight with
lows for tomorrow likely near midnight tonight.

Conditions will remain quite cloudy and cool Sunday as well with
solid chances of drizzle and light showers as continued southwest
flow aloft over the colder surface air along isentropic surfaces
aids precipitation development. Water vapor imagery depicts an
enhanced area of ascent across the West Coast of Mexico that will
shift over the region Sunday morning and afternoon. This lift
should remain mostly north of the region but some of the light to
moderate precipitation banding that occurs could clip The Hill
Country and towards Williamson County. New rainfall accumulations
will remain low through the next 24 hours with only a few
hundredths to less than one quarter of an inch. The heaviest will
located across The Hill Country into the Llano...Burnet...and
Williamson County areas.

Long term (monday through saturday)...

No major highlights in the long term as a slow warming trend
occurs Monday and Tuesday. However...another cold front is
expected late Tuesday with a reinforcing cold air push late in
the week.

By early next week...a strong cut-off closed low will be across
the central Continental U.S. With continued west-southwest flow aloft over
the region. A surface low will develop across the Central Plains
that will aid in weak south winds attempting to bring back
moisture and a warmer airmass. This weak return flow will not make
much progress north and mostly remain near the Texas coast to just
barely inland based on multi-ensemble guidance. Models are in fair
agreement that low to moderate rain chances will remain along this
warm frontal zone as an enhanced 300mb jet streak of 120 kts
remains over North Texas. Central and western zones should remain
mostly dry Monday/Tuesday as precipitable waters will be less than 1.2" but
eastern/coastal locations will be near 1.5" and susceptible to
light to moderate streamer shower activity.

By early Wednesday...stronger low-level convergence from a southward
advancing cold front should allow for greater light to moderate
shower activity for more the area. At this time...dewpoint
recovery looks meager as the low-level south flow is too weak with
higher precipitable waters and instability remaining along and off the Texas
coast. Have opted to only have showers in forecast for now with no
thunderstorm mention given the set-up. The cold front will move
through slowly by early Thursday with decreasing rain chances from
south to north. By Friday into Saturday...clearing should occur
but temperatures will be remain cool at or just below seasonal


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 42 46 45 60 47 / 70 60 30 20 20
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 42 46 44 59 47 / 70 60 40 20 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 44 46 46 60 49 / 60 50 30 20 30
Burnet Muni Airport 39 43 42 58 44 / 70 80 20 10 10
del Rio International Airport 44 57 47 63 48 / 70 40 10 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 39 44 42 58 44 / 70 80 40 20 20
Hondo Muni Airport 44 50 46 62 50 / 60 40 20 10 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 42 45 45 58 49 / 60 50 30 20 30
La Grange - Fayette regional 45 49 47 59 50 / 60 50 40 20 30
San Antonio International Airport 44 49 47 62 51 / 60 50 20 20 20
Stinson Muni Airport 46 49 47 62 52 / 60 40 20 20 30


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...


public service/data collection...LH

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