Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1140 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Aviation...
VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the taf
period with light and variable winds overnight becoming southerly
between 6 to 8 knots tomorrow.

Treadway

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 609 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014/

Aviation...
/00z tafs/
VFR conditions will prevail across area sites through the
period. Light and variable winds through Saturday afternoon.

Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014/

Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...
the upper ridge axis over Texas will lead to highs well above normal
this weekend with a few 90 degree readings expected Saturday. With
light winds over the area...ground and vegetation moisture is
holding up dew points a few extra degrees...especially in the
morning hours. The moisture will help minimize cooling under
mostly clear skies the next couple nights...with mins expected to
remain slightly above normals.

Long term (sunday through friday)...
southerly surface winds return Sunday but should continue to
decouple at night. Thus we adjusted the moisture return downward
slightly Sunday as daytime mixing should reduce the accumulated
low level moisture through Monday. By Tuesday...moisture depth
should increase sufficiently to produce a more significant area of
morning cloudiness and thus help to offset afternoon heating by a
few degrees. A broad troughing feature expected in the middle of
next week continues to show a delayed frontal timing with each
subsequent model run...and the 12z runs now suggest the front will
not make significant progress through south central Texas until
Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The GFS continues to suggest
a weak frontal feature to stall over north central Texas Tuesday to
enable a slight chance of rain over central Texas Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Will continue to Show Low rain chances Tuesday night into
daytime Thursday with timing uncertainties and limited moisture
availability providing reason to cap the chances at 20 percent.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 87 63 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 86 58 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 62 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 -
Burnet Muni Airport 85 61 87 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 -
del Rio International Airport 85 62 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 85 62 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 -
Hondo Muni Airport 86 57 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 86 60 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 85 60 87 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 -
San Antonio International Airport 87 64 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 -
Stinson Muni Airport 87 62 89 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...12
synoptic/grids...29

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations