Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
924 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015
mostly clear skies dominate south central Texas with areas of high clouds
pushing across The Hill Country this evening. However...clouds
return overnight mainly along and east of I-35 as temperatures
cool with dewpoints in the low to middle 70s. Expect another warm and
humid Summer day on Tuesday across south central Texas but not as
hot as today (1-2 degree range cooler). The upper level high is
forecast to shift to the east and weakens a bit while an inverted
upper level trough pushes from east to west across the area. No
shower/tstorm activity is expected across south central
Texas...however...some areas across the coastal plains may see one
or two short-lived showers middle-late afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 645 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015/
skies start VFR this evening. Areas of stratus with MVFR/IFR ceilings
and patchy br with MVFR visibilities develop overnight 06z-09z from the
coastal plains to the Escarpment and into The Hill Country...then
spread west to the Rio Grande where ceilings will be more patchy. The
I-35 taf sites may become broken-v-sct around sunrise on Tuesday.
Regardless...clouds lift to few-scattered VFR cumulus by middle morning
Previous discussion... /issued 245 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015/
Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...
morning cloud cover has dissipated and we are left with mostly
clear skies and temperatures in the middle to upper 90s. Current
heat index values are running in the 100 to 104 degree range.
Hi-res guidance has backed off of the earlier thought of isolated
shower activity across the northern Hill Country and there is less
cumulus forming in that region vs this time yesterday which supports
that theory. Lows tonight will be in the lower to upper 70s
across much of the area. Tomorrow should generally be really
similar to today with morning clouds giving way to afternoon
sunshine. Upper heights and the low-level thermal profile slightly
increase and highs tomorrow will be near or a degree or two warmer
Long term (wednesday through monday)...
the ridge will continue to slightly strengthen for the middle of
the week and highs will remain in the upper 90s to 102 degree
range with the higher temperatures closer to the Rio Grande.
Thursday night into Friday we will see an increase in moisture
from a weak disturbance moving from east to west along the
southern periphery of the upper ridge. Precipitable water values
will Jump Up to near 2 inches across the eastern half of the area
and rain chances will return to the forecast. Highs will still be
in the upper 90s to 102 degrees and any thunderstorm could be able
to produce gusty winds as dewpoint depressions will be quite
large. For the weekend...the upper ridge will strengthen west of
the region...but increasing 850 temperatures will keep high temperatures
quite warm with 100s possible for the I-35 corridor Sunday/Monday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 98 75 98 76 / 0 0 - - 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 74 97 73 98 74 / 0 0 - - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 - 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 74 98 73 98 75 / - 0 - 0 0
del Rio International Airport 78 100 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 97 75 98 75 / - 0 - - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 75 97 74 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 75 98 74 / 0 0 - 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 76 98 76 98 75 / - 10 - - -
San Antonio International Airport 76 98 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 76 98 76 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0