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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
249 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...
the persistent trough over the area has produced scattered
showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon. Gusty winds to 50
miles per hour and rainfall amounts up to 1 inch in an hour are possible with
some of the stronger storms. This line of storms is moving into a
much more unfavorable environment north of I-10...so we expect
the storms to die out over The Hill Country and rolling plains
east of Austin by 7 PM or so. Otherwise...look for slow partial
clearing by late evening...then some return of low clouds toward
daybreak.

Thursday will have even lower probability of precipitation as the upper level ridge builds
over the south Central Plains. We expect storms to stay generally
south of I-10 and be more isolated in nature. Temperatures will also
begin a slow climb with less cloudcover and storm coverage.

&&

Long term (friday through wednesday)...
the upper level ridge builds a bit more on Friday...before a
weakness brings another chance for isolated to scattered
convection both Saturday and Sunday. Quantitative precipitation forecast should be relatively
light with these storms...but since it/S a Holiday weekend...the
threat of lightning and winds to 50 miles per hour will be emphasized.

Starting with Monday...the upper level ridge builds in strong and
centers over Texas. High temperatures will surge up to near to
slightly above normal...with the Rio Grande plains flirting with
100 by the middle of next week...with middle to upper 90s over the
rest of the area. The upper level ridge should also suppress
convection...so we have no probability of precipitation at this time...but there is a one
in 20 chance of an mesoscale convective system forming over southwest Oklahoma or North
Texas and propagating south into the northern part of our area
with favorable middle and upper level northwesterly flow.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 72 92 73 92 74 / 0 - 0 10 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 70 92 73 92 74 / 0 10 0 10 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 91 73 92 74 / - 20 0 10 -
Burnet Muni Airport 70 90 72 91 73 / 0 - 0 10 10
del Rio International Airport 72 92 74 96 75 / 20 20 0 10 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 71 91 73 92 74 / 0 - 0 10 -
Hondo Muni Airport 70 91 72 92 74 / 20 20 - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 70 92 73 92 74 / - 20 0 10 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 72 92 74 92 75 / - - 0 10 -
San Antonio International Airport 72 92 73 92 74 / - 20 0 10 -
Stinson Muni Airport 71 92 74 92 75 / - 20 - 10 -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...10
synoptic/grids...26
public service/data collection...LH

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