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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
832 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Update...
minor updates have been made to the forecast. The main changes
were to update winds and dew points based on the latest
observational trends. Otherwise...the current forecast is on
track.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 637 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014/

Aviation...
expect VFR with moderate winds through 06z. MVFR stratus should
develop at the I-35 sites around 06z and continue through 16z
before lifting to VFR...although broken coverage will continue
through 21z. Kdrt will only have a short period of MVFR ceilings from
12-16z. Expect a repeat of MVFR ceilings at the I-35 sites a little after
06z Wednesday.

Previous discussion... /issued 333 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014/

Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...
upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge
extended across the southern third of the country with a broad
shallow trough to the north. Water vapor satellite imagery showed
dry air in the middle-levels over south central Texas with a sharp
gradient along our southeast border and moister air toward the
coast. At the surface...high pressure centered to the east had the
winds from the southeast. There is also a tropical circulation
emerging from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.
During this period not much change is expected. The subtropical
ridge will remain in place giving US another warm night. Tuesday
afternoon will bring a chance for sea breeze convection perhaps
reaching I-35. Tuesday night will continue warm with rain chances
retreating toward the coast.

Long term (wednesday through monday)...
NHC has likely development of tropical cyclone in the Gulf by
Wednesday. Models move this circulation into Mexico well south of
Texas...but moisture could extend northward to our County Warning Area. This will
mean chances for rain for our southern areas Wednesday and
Thursday. As this system moves west into Mexico...our weather will
return to hot and mainly dry. Still some chance for convection
over the south Friday and Saturday. Continuing southeasterly flow
in the low levels will mean a chance for sea breeze convection
during the afternoon Sunday and Monday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 99 78 97 77 96 / - 0 20 10 20
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 98 76 97 74 96 / - 0 20 10 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 75 97 74 96 / - 0 10 10 30
Burnet Muni Airport 97 75 96 75 94 / - 0 10 10 20
del Rio International Airport 101 78 100 77 94 / - 0 - - 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 97 77 95 76 95 / - 0 20 10 20
Hondo Muni Airport 99 74 97 74 94 / - 0 10 10 40
San Marcos Muni Airport 98 77 96 75 95 / - 0 20 10 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 98 78 96 76 96 / 20 10 30 20 30
San Antonio International Airport 99 79 98 77 96 / - 0 10 10 30
Stinson Muni Airport 100 78 98 76 96 / - 0 10 10 30

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...26
synoptic/grids...24
public service/data collection...12

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