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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1047 am CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014

Update...
morning high-res guidance is showing a low potential for afternoon
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across the extreme eastern
counties. The best chances for any activity will be east of our
County Warning Area where there are lower amounts of inhibition and weaker surface
winds to allow for greater convergence along the afternoon
seabreeze. Will bump up probability of precipitation to 10 percent with a mention of
thunder.

Only other change was to increase afternoon highs a couple of
degrees across the southeast. Current observation are a bit higher than
what the previous forecast showed.

Hampshire

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 646 am CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014/

Aviation...
IFR/MVFR ceilings along and southeast of the I-35 corridor will lift and
become scattered by morning with VFR skies prevailing all areas late
this morning through this evening. IFR/MVFR ceilings redevelop along
the I-35 corridor overnight...then lift and become scattered VFR by late
Thursday morning. S to southeast winds 7 kts or less increase to 10 to 15
kts this afternoon...decrease to less than 10 kts tonight.

Previous discussion... /issued 337 am CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014/

Short term (today through thursday)...
southerly winds through the boundary layer will help keep low
level moisture high...but stable air in the middle-levels will
prevent any chances for rain today. Highs will again return to the
upper 90s/near 100 across much of the County Warning Area. A short-wave trough
embedded in the northwest flow aloft will slowly push southeastward
across the Southern Plains and toward the Arkansas-la-tex region today
and Thursday. The bulk of the activity from this feature will
remain well to our east...but there is the potential for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday. The chance for
rain as well as greater cloud cover will knock a few degrees off
high temperatures on Thursday.

Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
a cold front will reach The Hill Country Thursday night/early
Friday morning. The approach of the frontal boundary will enhance
the potential for convection across the region...with additional
development expected due to multiple outflow boundaries. Models
are in fair agreement with a messy frontal passage that
lingers/washes out over our area. Given the lack of a definitive
stabilizing pattern in the wake of the front and persistent
northwesterly flow aloft across the central and Southern
Plains...have kept the mention of chances for rain through the
weekend and into early next week. By Monday...the upper ridge
across The Rockies will shift eastward just enough to end chances
for rain through the middle of the week.

High temperatures through the weekend will be moderated by the
better coverage of clouds and chances for rain. Temperatures will
slowly warm next week...but due to persistent northwest flow aloft and
the re-moistening of soils from expected rain...highs should
remain mostly in the middle 90s.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 98 74 94 74 92 / 10 - 30 30 20
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 97 72 94 72 91 / 10 - 30 30 30
New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 73 96 73 92 / - - 20 30 30
Burnet Muni Airport 96 72 91 72 88 / 10 - 30 20 20
del Rio International Airport 102 78 99 79 95 / 0 - 20 20 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 95 73 92 72 89 / 10 - 30 30 20
Hondo Muni Airport 98 72 97 74 94 / 0 0 20 30 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 98 73 95 73 92 / - - 20 30 30
La Grange - Fayette regional 98 75 94 76 90 / 10 - 30 30 30
San Antonio International Airport 98 76 96 76 93 / - - 20 30 30
Stinson Muni Airport 99 74 97 75 94 / - - 20 30 30

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...07
synoptic/grids...29
public service/data collection...00

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