Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
923 am CST Wednesday Dec 11 2013
mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies will prevail for the rest of
the area today. Low level jet will continue to push low level
moisture across the eastern two-thirds of south central Texas
through this afternoon in advance of a back-door frontal system
currently over North Texas. This front will move across south
central Texas this afternoon with dry weather conditions expected
along and behind it. Made some minor changes to the sky grids for
the first forecast period but package remains intact.
Previous discussion... /issued 546 am CST Wednesday Dec 11 2013/
VFR ceilings have moved into the Austin and San Antonio areas this
morning. Expect these ceilings to linger into the afternoon. Looking
for MVFR ceilings to develop at the i35 terminals overnight Wednesday
into Thursday. Drt will be VFR through this taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 351 am CST Wednesday Dec 11 2013/
Short term (today through thursday)...
a surface high pressure ridge axis remains in place early this
morning across south central Texas. Light winds and dry air have
allowed for good radiational cooling across most of the region...
resulting in temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s along and
west of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures across the coastal plains
have been slower to cool as thick cloud cover over the mentioned
area slowly spreads north. The above mentioned cold front will
gradually move south today...reaching The Hill Country in the late
afternoon hours. The front will continue to push southward
tonight... bringing another shot of cold air to the region. This
will result in below normal temperatures tonight and again on
Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
southerly winds slowly return to the region beginning Thursday
night as an upper low moves into the Desert Southwest. The low and
associated subtropical jet could bring a few light showers to the
southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country Thursday night and
Friday. Given the increase in moisture and cloud cover...
temperatures are expected to remain above freezing Thursday night.
Any precipitation amounts will likely remain low due to a lack of
deep layer moisture. Precipitation chances shift east into the
I-35 corridor on Friday as middle-level shortwave troughs move
through the region. While there will be a modest increase in low-
level moisture on Friday...significant precipitation amounts are
not expected. The latest European model (ecmwf) MOS is trending lower with
precipitation chances and if this trend continues...we may need to
lower rain chances on Friday. A Pacific cold front moves through
on Saturday...bringing much drier air to the region. Not much
cooling is expected behind this front as northwesterly downslope
winds and plenty of insolation offset low-level cold air
advection. A surface ridge of high pressure remains over the area
on Sunday resulting in below normal temperatures and continued dry
weather. Weak southerly flow returns Monday and Tuesday...resulting
in a slow warming trend through the remainder of the forecast
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 55 32 50 39 60 / - - - 20 40
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 55 31 50 37 59 / - - - 10 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 56 33 53 38 60 / - - - 10 30
Burnet Muni Airport 52 28 48 37 59 / - - - 20 40
del Rio International Airport 57 37 52 40 62 / 0 - 10 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 52 29 48 36 58 / - - - 20 40
Hondo Muni Airport 59 33 54 41 63 / - - - 10 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 55 32 52 38 59 / - - - 10 40
La Grange - Fayette regional 55 33 52 41 61 / - - - 10 40
San Antonio International Airport 58 34 54 42 62 / - - - 10 30
Stinson Muni Airport 59 35 54 43 64 / - - - 10 30
public service/data collection...33