Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
654 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Aviation... /issued for 00z taf update/
VFR skies should last through midnight beneath abundant high
clouds. In the pre-dawn hours Saturday...a few locations could see
patchy fog develop...but similar to last night...the high clouds
will make it hard to pinpoint timing and extent. A layer of
stratus is expected to form by daybreak and be mainly MVFR in the
late morning. VFR skies should return by early afternoon...perhaps
sooner...as Gulf moisture return remains sluggish.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 259 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014/

Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...
light northeast to easterly winds at the surface will gradually
veer to the southeast by early Saturday morning. Cloud cover will
increase from west to east overnight as an upper low across the
Desert Southwest approaches Texas. The trough will continue to
push eastward and into the Southern Plains this weekend. This will
lead to a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly
across the Rio Grande plains on Saturday and expand to much of the
County Warning Area Saturday night. However...coverage of the activity will be
isolated to scattered at best and models continue to indicate low
quantitative precipitation forecast as well.

Long term (sunday through friday)...
the chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue on Sunday
and decrease on Monday as the trough axis finally pushes into East
Texas. An upper level ridge will build across the western/central U.S.
Early in the week...then heights will begin to fall middle-week as an
upper trough develops across the northern rockies. The low will move
into the northern plains and toward the Great Lakes late in the week.
Models aren't quite sure how far southward to send the front
associated with the low...but generally agree that we will be too
far south and will get dry-slotted instead.

The flat pattern aloft and southerly flow through the boundary layer
will lead to a warming and moistening trend through the end of the
week. Temperatures will be seasonably warm...with highs mostly in
the middle 80s/east to low 90s/west and lows in the 60s.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 56 80 60 80 63 / 0 0 20 20 20
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 53 80 57 79 61 / 0 0 20 20 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 56 81 59 80 61 / 0 - 20 20 20
Burnet Muni Airport 56 78 60 78 63 / 0 - 20 20 20
del Rio International Airport 62 80 64 82 66 / - 20 30 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 55 78 59 79 64 / 0 0 20 20 20
Hondo Muni Airport 59 83 63 83 65 / 0 10 20 20 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 55 80 58 79 61 / 0 0 20 20 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 56 80 58 79 61 / - 0 10 20 20
San Antonio International Airport 58 81 61 81 63 / 0 - 20 20 20
Stinson Muni Airport 59 83 61 82 64 / 0 - 20 20 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...18
synoptic/grids...05
public service/data collection...33