Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1228 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

clouds are beginning to develop across the coastal plains. Expect
these clouds to spread northwestward. MVFR ceilings will move into
Austin and San Antonio within the next couple of hours. Ceilings
should drop to IFR an hour or two after that. Low ceilings will make
it to drt by about 12z. Improvement back to VFR will come late
morning or early afternoon Monday. Look for a repeat Monday night.


Previous discussion... /issued 708 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015/ a result of the more bullish cloud forecast per
hrrr/NAM forecast soundings/rap output overnight tonight...overall
sky cover was increased near and after midnight to reflect mostly
cloudy conditions through the early to middle morning hours Monday.
Patchy areas of fog were also introduced along and southeast of
The Hill Country as a result of additional low level moisture
streaming in from the south. A weak cold front was noted on
surface observations across north central Texas and may help
provide enough convergence for some isolated showers and storms.
However...this activity looks to remain north of the region with
the front stalling before reaching into south-central Texas
overnight. Updates have been posted and an updated aviation
discussion can be found directly below as well. /Allen/

Previous discussion... /issued 241 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015/

Short term (tonight through Monday night)...
high pressure is to thank for a warm and sunny Sunday. A weak cold
front is draped across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. This
will push south overnight...but not quite reach our area. Clouds
will be on the increase tonight and stick around for Monday. With
the return of moisture due to southerly flow and the weak front to
our north there is a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms
across the northern Hill Country with some morning streamer
showers possible as far south as San Antonio. Winds will be
lighter on Monday than they were today and highs will be a few
degrees cooler due to the increased cloud cover.

Long term (tuesday through sunday)...
our next weather system approaches on Tuesday. A trough of low
pressure currently east of Baja California California will move across the
southwest U.S. And approach Tuesday. Models are in good agreement
in terms of the position of the trough. Rain chances will begin
to increase from west to east through the day on Tuesday. A strong
storm or two will be possible along the dryline across West Texas
late Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center currently has the northern Rio Grande plains and
parts of the Edwards Plateau in a marginal risk for severe weather
for day 3. Cape values of 1200 j/kg and decent shear support the
threat. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide
will be overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as the trough continues
east. Precipitation will come to an end Wednesday as drier air
moves in behind the trough. Thursday will be warm...especially
along the Rio Grande plains where temperatures could reach into
the 90s. Cloud cover and rain chances will be on the increase
again Friday ahead of a cold front Friday night. Due to the front
and the cloud cover/precipitation next weekend looks to have below
normal temperatures with highs in near 70 and lows in the 50s.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 80 62 79 62 78 / 20 20 20 40 40
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 78 61 78 61 78 / 20 20 20 40 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 79 61 80 61 79 / 20 20 20 50 30
Burnet Muni Airport 79 61 79 61 78 / 20 20 20 30 30
del Rio International Airport 82 65 81 61 86 / - 20 30 40 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 78 62 79 62 77 / 20 20 20 30 40
Hondo Muni Airport 81 61 79 61 81 / 10 20 20 40 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 79 61 79 61 78 / 20 20 20 50 40
La Grange - Fayette regional 79 61 79 63 79 / 20 20 20 50 60
San Antonio International Airport 80 62 79 62 79 / 20 20 20 50 30
Stinson Muni Airport 80 62 80 62 80 / 10 20 20 50 30


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations