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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1020 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Update...
just sent an update to re-trend hourly forecast variables through
00z...but the primary forecast and reasoning are still in tact so
the changes were minimal.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 601 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015/

Aviation...
areas of IFR/MVFR ceilings and patchy MVFR visibilities will lift with clouds
becoming scattered VFR level and br dissipating by late morning. Stratus
with IFR/MVFR ceilings and br with patchy MVFR visibilities redevelop
overnight and repeat today's pattern on Saturday. Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
are possible today with any impacts well east of the I-35 corridor
airports. Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are possible on Saturday and may impact
the I-35 corridor airports late Saturday morning into afternoon.
However...probs too low and will not mention at this time. S to southeast
winds 3 to 8 kts increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts
today with daytime mixing and decrease to 3 to 9 kts this evening
as the airmass decouples.

Previous discussion... /issued 319 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015/

Short term (today through saturday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed a high over the western
part of the country centered over Nevada and extending into Texas.
There was a large amplitude trough over the eastern half of the
country. At the surface...high pressure was centered over the Gulf
and winds across our County Warning Area were from the southeast. Dew point
temperatures were generally around three degrees higher than 24
hours ago. Models show very little change in the pattern in this
period with the upper high and trough remaining in balance. The
surface high will stay over the Gulf and the low level flow will
continue to be from the southeast. There should be enough
subsidence from the upper high to suppress any convection over
most of the County Warning Area. A few showers or thunderstorms could move into
the eastern counties from the coast today. Models have trended
drier for Saturday with the ridge holding off the eastern trough.
Probability of precipitation are lower than previous forecasts...but we will see slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms from the southeast up to I-35.

Long term (saturday night through thursday)...
Sunday will be the beginning of a dry period as the Atlantic sub-
tropical ridge begins to build to the west and force the trough
to the northeast. This ridge will then dominate through the rest
of the forecast period. The weather will be dry and warm.
Temperatures will climb slowly through the week...but will still
be a bit below normal.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 92 74 92 76 91 / 10 - 20 - 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 91 74 91 75 91 / 10 - 20 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 74 90 75 91 / 10 - 20 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 90 73 90 74 91 / 10 - 10 - 10
del Rio International Airport 93 75 92 75 94 / 10 - 10 - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 91 74 90 75 92 / 10 - 20 - 10
Hondo Muni Airport 91 74 91 75 92 / 10 - 20 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 90 74 90 75 90 / 10 - 20 10 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 91 75 90 76 91 / 20 - 20 10 10
San Antonio International Airport 91 75 91 76 91 / 10 - 20 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 91 75 91 76 91 / 10 - 20 10 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...Oaks
synoptic/grids...26
public service/data collection...LH

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