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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
704 am CDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015

Aviation.../12z tafs/
patchy MVFR ceilings will continue to affect the I-35 taf sites
through 14z as they bounce between scattered and broken coverage similar to
yesterday morning. However...the hrrr suggests these low clouds
will lift to VFR within the hour...so will amend tafs as necessary
if this occurs. Southerly 10-15 knots winds with brief gusts to 20
kts are possible this afternoon. Brief patchy MVFR ceilings should
develop again tomorrow morning at one or two of the I-35 sites.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 319 am CDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015/

Short term (today through thursday)...
upper level ridge will begin its eastward trek back to the south
central Continental U.S. Today resulting in building heights across the
region. Morning low clouds due to slightly better moisture
advection this morning will quickly burn off as mixing will
efficiently take place as surface temperatures warm. Expecting
highs to average about a degree or so higher today than yesterday
across the County Warning Area. Heat indices will range from 102 in The Hill
Country to 111 in the Rio Grande Valley.

Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
the upper ridge will continue to shift east and get comfy over
Texas for the weekend. 1000-500mb thicknesses look to increase
about 7-8 dam from today through Saturday resulting in Saturday
highs in the triple digits everywhere but in the higher terrain of
the plateau. This set up will continue through at least Wednesday
before some hints at a frontal system are seen in the GFS/ECMWF.
However...rather than cool the area...the frontal system may serve
to only provide additional compressional warming and raise maximum
temperatures to at or just above record highs for next Wednesday. Based
off the current forecast...heat advisories will likely be needed
for areas in south central Texas...especially the eastern zones
and coastal plains possibly beginning as early as Friday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 101 76 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 99 74 99 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 101 75 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 100 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio International Airport 102 77 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 100 76 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 99 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 100 76 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 100 77 99 77 101 / - 0 0 0 0
San Antonio International Airport 100 77 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 100 77 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...LH
synoptic/grids...tb3

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