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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
655 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Update...00z aviation update below.

&&

Aviation...VFR conditions will continue through the evening
hours. MVFR stratus is expected to re-develop 06z-09z across
south-central Texas. Some locations are expected to see ceilings
becoming IFR around 10z-14z. VFR conditions will re-develop
15z-17z with a scattered-broken cumulus deck. Isolated to scattered showers are
expected to develop by early afternoon Thursday...potentially reaching
into the I-35 corridor through the afternoon hours. While rain showers/thunderstorm
are not currently indicated in the aus/Sat/ssf tafs for Thursday
afternoon...future tafs cycles may need to include. Southeast winds
generally 5-10 kts this evening...decreasing to less than 5 kts
overnight at aus/Sat/ssf.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 254 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015/

Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...
upper air analysis this morning showed a trough extending from the
middle Mississippi Valley to the Texas coast with a ridge building
out of Mexico into the Southern Plains. At the surface...high
pressure was centered to the east. The pressure gradient was
fairly loose and winds were generally light from the east to
southeast. The upper level ridge will try to re-establish itself
over Texas during this period...but will initially build over the
top of the trough. This will mean a weakness over south central
Texas and some chance for thunderstorms Thursday. The best chances
will be over the eastern half of the County Warning Area.

Long term (friday through wednesday)...
the upper ridge will push the trough off to the east and once
again become dominant over the region. This will return more
typical late Summer weather to south central Texas. The low level
flow will be from the southeast. This will bring enough moist air
from the Gulf to include slight chance probability of precipitation over the coastal
plains during the afternoon and early evening hours each day
through Tuesday. Temperatures will continue within a few degrees
of normal.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 73 92 75 94 76 / 10 20 10 10 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 71 90 72 93 74 / 10 20 10 10 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 92 74 94 75 / 10 20 20 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 71 91 74 93 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
del Rio International Airport 75 96 76 96 76 / 10 10 - 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 72 90 74 93 75 / 10 20 10 10 -
Hondo Muni Airport 72 93 74 95 74 / 10 20 10 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 91 74 93 75 / 10 30 20 10 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 72 90 74 92 75 / 20 30 20 20 10
San Antonio International Airport 74 92 76 94 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 74 93 75 95 76 / 10 20 20 10 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...runyen
synoptic/grids...Oaks
public service/data collection...Treadway

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