Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014
Aviation...all convection has now ceased within south-central
Texas...not that any of it was threatening the aerodromes anyway.
Leftover cirrus from this convection and cirrus streaming up from
deep south Texas is the most exciting thing over the ewx County warning forecast area
right now...with generally moderate surface winds hanging on.
Within the next few hours...however...an MVFR deck of stratus will
form and prevail for a majority of the aerodromes as the surface
winds lighten. VFR is expected to resume around middle-morning on
Sunday as winds become moderate with breezy gusts as ceilings
rise. The reverse will occur Sunday night...as diminishing winds
will couple with lowering and thickening ceilings to once again
Previous discussion... /issued 1024 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/
we have updated the forecast to remove the mention of
precipitation across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country. Some light radar echoes are noted on kdfx radar... but
this activity should continue to weaken with the loss of daytime
heating. Otherwise...minor changes were made to the cloud cover...
winds and dew points.
Previous discussion... /issued 631 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/
Aviation...only minor adjustments were made to a majority of the
existing tafs for wind direction...speed...and cloud cover. The
most significant adjustment was applied to the drt taf...as kdfx
radar shows a decent outflow boundary approaching the city from the
northeast. Thus...inserted a quick tempo for expected higher winds
in association with the outflow boundary. Overall...VFR right now
will yield to MVFR for most of the overnight hours as a low deck of
stratus develops and persists with light winds in place. VFR will
rapidly re-develop after sunrise tomorrow morning with increasing
surface winds...abundant sunshine...and daytime heating. MVFR may
try to show its hand again tomorrow night with similar atmospheric
conditions expected within this persistent weather pattern.
Previous discussion... /issued 321 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/
Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have again
developed across the Edwards Plateau to Hill Country and near the
coastal plains. As with the last few days...they will dissipate
this evening...though lingering across the Edwards Plateau for an
hour or two after sunset. A moist airmass continues on Sunday as a
shear axis lingers over Texas. Expect isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms to redevelop with daytime heating and
along the seabreeze. Have extended probability of precipitation a little west of the I-35
corridor with activity again dissipating by sunset. Above average
temperatures will continue.
Long term (monday through saturday)...
subtropical ridge builds back over Texas by Monday and persists
through next weekend. Have slight chance probability of precipitation only across the far
east Monday due to the seabreeze. The ridge axis shifts to the
northeast slightly Tuesday allowing an easterly wave to bring some
deeper moisture back into south central Texas. Have maintained
the slight chance probability of precipitation across a larger part of south central Texas
for Wednesday into Thursday. Ridge axis shifts back south Friday
with a drier airmass ending probability of precipitation by Saturday. Temperatures will
remain above average.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 96 77 98 77 / 10 10 10 - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 73 96 75 98 76 / 10 20 10 - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 96 75 98 76 / 10 20 10 - -
Burnet Muni Airport 73 94 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 - -
del Rio International Airport 77 98 77 99 78 / 10 - 10 - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 75 95 77 97 76 / 10 10 10 - -
Hondo Muni Airport 72 96 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 96 76 98 76 / 10 20 10 - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 75 95 76 96 76 / 10 30 10 20 10
San Antonio International Airport 76 96 78 98 78 / 10 10 10 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 75 97 77 99 78 / 10 20 10 - -