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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1126 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Aviation...
infrared satellite imagery with the fog/low-cloud enhancement is
already showing the first signs of stratus developing east of
kpez. We still expect MVFR ceilings stratus at the I-35 sites from
08-16z. Ceilings will lift to VFR from 16-21z until mixing finally
brings scattered clouds after 21z. Kdrt will only have a short period of
MVFR ceilings from 12-16z. Winds will be gusty after 16z at kdrt...and
from 21z-03z at the I-35 sites. Expect a repeat of MVFR ceilings at
the I-35 sites after 09z Wednesday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 832 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014/

Update...
minor updates have been made to the forecast. The main changes
were to update winds and dew points based on the latest
observational trends. Otherwise...the current forecast is on
track.

Previous discussion... /issued 637 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014/

Aviation...
expect VFR with moderate winds through 06z. MVFR stratus should
develop at the I-35 sites around 06z and continue through 16z
before lifting to VFR...although broken coverage will continue
through 21z. Kdrt will only have a short period of MVFR ceilings from
12-16z. Expect a repeat of MVFR ceilings at the I-35 sites a little after
06z Wednesday.

Previous discussion... /issued 333 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014/

Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...
upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge
extended across the southern third of the country with a broad
shallow trough to the north. Water vapor satellite imagery showed
dry air in the middle-levels over south central Texas with a sharp
gradient along our southeast border and moister air toward the
coast. At the surface...high pressure centered to the east had the
winds from the southeast. There is also a tropical circulation
emerging from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.
During this period not much change is expected. The subtropical
ridge will remain in place giving US another warm night. Tuesday
afternoon will bring a chance for sea breeze convection perhaps
reaching I-35. Tuesday night will continue warm with rain chances
retreating toward the coast.

Long term (wednesday through monday)...
NHC has likely development of tropical cyclone in the Gulf by
Wednesday. Models move this circulation into Mexico well south of
Texas...but moisture could extend northward to our County Warning Area. This will
mean chances for rain for our southern areas Wednesday and
Thursday. As this system moves west into Mexico...our weather will
return to hot and mainly dry. Still some chance for convection
over the south Friday and Saturday. Continuing southeasterly flow
in the low levels will mean a chance for sea breeze convection
during the afternoon Sunday and Monday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 78 97 77 96 75 / 0 20 10 20 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 76 97 74 96 73 / 0 20 10 20 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 97 74 96 73 / 0 10 10 30 10
Burnet Muni Airport 75 96 75 94 73 / 0 10 10 20 10
del Rio International Airport 78 100 77 94 74 / 0 - - 20 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 77 95 76 95 74 / 0 20 10 20 10
Hondo Muni Airport 74 97 74 94 72 / 0 10 10 40 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 77 96 75 95 74 / 0 20 10 20 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 78 96 76 96 76 / 10 30 20 30 10
San Antonio International Airport 79 98 77 96 76 / 0 10 10 30 20
Stinson Muni Airport 78 98 76 96 75 / 0 10 10 30 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...26
synoptic/grids...24

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