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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
527 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Aviation...
no aviation concerns this morning. VFR conditions will prevail
through this forecast period. Light winds this morning will become
west-SW at 10-15 knots after 16z. Weak cold front will move across
the region late this afternoon and into the evening shifting winds
to northerly at 5-10 knots.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 347 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/

Short term (today through thursday)...
an upper level trough moving east through the eastern plains to
the lower Ohio Valley will send a cold front south into south
central Texas late this afternoon into tonight. Ahead of the
front...southwesterly winds will continue the warming trend with
temperatures slightly above average today. In the wake of the
front...cooler...and slightly below average temperatures are
expected on Thanksgiving day.

Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
the surface high moves off to the east Thursday night into Friday.
Southerly flow returns with increasing lower level moisture and a
warming trend for the remainder of the Thanksgiving weekend. A dry
zonal flow flow aloft will prevail. Some low clouds return Friday
morning with a better chance Saturday morning. A weak upper level
trough moving across southern Texas and the low level jet may lift
a somewhat deeper lower level moist layer to generate isolated
showers across far eastern areas Sunday into Sunday night. Models
then differ in the lower levels for Monday into Tuesday while all
keep a zonal flow aloft. A couple of upper level troughs moving
east across the northern tier of states and southern Canada force
a rather strong cold front south across the plains. The European model (ecmwf) and
Gem show a stronger cold frontal push across south central Texas
on Monday while the GFS has a weaker frontal push and the navgem
keeps the front north. The GFS has been more consistent and will
favor that model...especially with a zonal flow aloft slowing the
southward progress of the front and eroding the cold airmass on
its southern end. The front stalls over southern Texas Monday
night and then moves back north Tuesday. The low level jet and the
front may generate isolated showers across eastern areas Monday.
Isentropic lift over the front may generate isolated showers
across eastern into central areas Tuesday. Total rainfall amounts
will be light...generally less than 1/10 inch for Sunday through
Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are expected by Tuesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 71 41 65 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 71 37 64 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 40 66 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 68 38 62 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio International Airport 70 39 66 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 70 37 63 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 -
Hondo Muni Airport 73 37 66 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 39 65 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 70 41 65 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 -
San Antonio International Airport 73 42 66 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 73 42 67 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...10
synoptic/grids...04

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