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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
142 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
a very isolated shot at thunderstorms will be possible tonight as
energy and moisture will be moving in from the east due to a cold
front progressing southward across the southeast Continental U.S.. with the upper
level steering winds being northeast and east...some of the shower
and storm development in the hi res models could make it as far
west as the eastern periphery of the County Warning Area. However...an appreciable
moisture gradient over basically the i35 corridor should prevent
much from getting any farther westward. Also...dry low level
conditions as seen on laps and RUC soundings would challenge any
precipitation from reaching the surface so confidence is not high
for measurable precipitation this evening. Therefore left the isolated
mention in for the easternmost areas of the County Warning Area.

Should see some scattered low cloud development in the morning but
less than normal with light and variable winds. The light winds
and mostly unobstructed sky should keep lows a couple degrees
below guidance as they were this morning.

Best shot at measurable precipitation will be in the afternoon Friday as
the continuing west cold front interacts with the coastal plains
sea breeze. An area of enhanced quantitative precipitation forecast was noted in the NAM and GFS
which makes sense as an area of lift enough to realize decent
instability during the afternoon hours. Still think precipitable waters are a
bit exaggerated in the forecast soundings but still think a
briefly heavy downpour and gusty winds are still in play tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

Long term (saturday through thursday)...
models are trending a bit drier over the weekend but with the best
opportunity for south central Texas to receive rainfall being
Saturday as a forecast complex develops in the Panhandle and
northerly upper level flow carries it southward. Unsure about how
far south this will be able to make it but conditions are
favorable for a well sustained cold pool should an organized
system develop. Therefore highlighted the northern periphery of
the County Warning Area on the plateau for the best shot at rainfall Saturday.

Afterwards...the upper level pattern returns to the Summer
doldrums of hot and dry through the end of the week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 100 76 100 76 / 10 30 20 20 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 72 99 74 99 73 / 10 30 20 20 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 101 76 100 74 / 10 30 20 20 10
Burnet Muni Airport 74 99 75 98 74 / 10 30 20 20 -
del Rio International Airport 75 101 78 101 78 / - 10 20 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 100 75 98 74 / 10 30 20 20 0
Hondo Muni Airport 71 98 76 100 75 / 10 30 20 20 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 98 76 99 75 / 10 30 20 20 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 76 99 76 99 75 / 20 30 20 10 10
San Antonio International Airport 76 99 78 99 77 / 10 30 20 20 10
Stinson Muni Airport 74 100 77 100 76 / 10 30 20 20 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...04
synoptic/grids...tb3
public service/data collection...30

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