Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
540 am CST Friday Dec 13 2013
upper trough and associated disturbance moving east across north
and central Texas will graze northern portions of south central
Texas today with isolated to scattered showers. I-35 corridor
terminals low VFR to MVFR ceilings with occasional showers locally
lowering visibilities late morning to late afternoon. Ceilings lifting to VFR
this evening. Light and variable to light southerly this morning
becoming south 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. Kdrt terminal MVFR ceilings
becoming VFR by late afternoon. Kdrt winds southeast 5 to 10 kts
today becoming light southeast this evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 317 am CST Friday Dec 13 2013/
Short term (today through saturday)...
the 00z analysis shows an upper level low over Southern California/Arizona with
weak ridging over the Southern Plains. This has southwesterly
flow across northern Mexico into Texas bringing middle-level moisture
into the region. At the surface a broad area of high pressure is
centered over Tennessee and noses back across the western Gulf of Mexico.
This has our surface flow from the southeast. There is an area of
showers moving through West Texas the southern end of which has moved
into our western areas. Models show the upper low opening into a
wave and moving across the southwest and through Texas. At the same
time a frontal system will develop under this trough and a cold
front will move through our County Warning Area early Saturday. The main energy
looks to stay north of our County Warning Area. We will see rain chances today
with the best chance over the northeast. The atmosphere lacks
significant deep moisture over US and rainfall amounts will be
light. Expect strong winds behind the front Saturday. Temperatures
will be warmer than the last week.
Long term (saturday night through thursday)...
high pressure will build over Texas behind the cold front returning
dry weather. The upper pattern will transition to a deep trough
from the Great Lakes to East Texas and this trough will slowly move
toward the east bringing northwesterly flow to the Southern
Plains. This will set up a dry period for our County Warning Area. Starting
Tuesday the pattern will shift to a more zonal flow and will
continue to be dry. Sunday morning low temperatures will be cooler
behind the cold front...but will rebound quickly. Most of the week
looks like it will be above normal high temperatures. Dry air will
keep low temperatures below normal through Tuesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 58 43 58 34 61 / 50 20 - - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 59 40 57 31 59 / 50 20 - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 60 41 59 32 60 / 40 10 - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 56 39 53 31 58 / 50 10 - - 0
del Rio International Airport 63 41 61 34 62 / 10 - 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 56 40 55 30 58 / 50 20 - - -
Hondo Muni Airport 63 41 65 32 65 / 30 10 - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 58 41 57 32 59 / 40 20 - - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 61 47 58 35 56 / 40 30 10 - -
San Antonio International Airport 61 44 62 35 63 / 30 10 - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 63 45 65 36 64 / 30 10 10 - -