Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
903 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Discussion...
late night and early morning clouds followed by mostly sunny to
partly cloudy and warm afternoons will continue through the early
and middle part of next week. Short wave energy forecast to move northwest
of the western part of south central Texas on Friday could bring
a slight chance of showers to the western part of the area Friday
and Friday night. Ridging aloft is forecast this weekend through
the early part of next week. By the middle to late part of next week
from Wednesday to Thursday...another 500 hpa trough is forecast to
move from The Rockies to the central U.S. This could bring a
slight chance of showers to south central Texas in the middle to
late part of next week.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 639 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail this evening. A steady influx of Gulf
moisture will ensure that another round of low stratus develops
overnight. Ceilings could potentially lower to borderline MVFR/IFR
around sunrise but have kept MVFR for now and will re-assess with
the 06z taf issuance. Model guidance suggests patchy shallow fog
in the near-daybreak hours at kaus...and could also see reductions
in visibilities due to haze at kssf/ksat as smoke from fires across the
Yucatan Peninsula drifts into southern Texas. Ceilings will lift/break
out to VFR during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Southeast-southerly
surface winds at or below 10 kts overnight will increase to 12 to 17 kts
Thursday afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 301 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...
middle to upper level pattern is progressing as previously
anticipated with trough moving to the Mississippi Valley and a
ridge moving across nm. This will continue through the short term
period with the ridge becoming dominant. At the surface high
pressure is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico and the low
level winds are becoming southeasterly. This will bring Gulf
moisture back to the region quickly. This will be a dry pattern
with warming temperatures.
Long term (friday through wednesday)...
there will not be much change in the long term forecast. The middle
to upper level ridge will remain in place through the weekend and
early next week. Models show a short wave trough moving through
ridge Friday which will mean a slight chance for thunderstorms
developing over the Mexican mountains and moving into our western
area. Have included a small area of slight chance probability of precipitation Friday and
Friday night. Otherwise...there are no chances for rain until the
last period of the forecast when an upper level trough moves into
western Texas bringing a chance for thunderstorms next Wednesday.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 91 70 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 90 69 94 71 93 / 0 0 0 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 70 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 88 68 93 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 10
del Rio International Airport 96 75 99 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 88 69 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 93 71 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 90 70 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 89 73 92 74 93 / - 0 0 10 10
San Antonio International Airport 92 72 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 91 72 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 - 10
&&
Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/aviation...25/24
synoptic/grids...08/05
public service/data collection...33
