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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1032 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Update...
generally minor changes were made to the current forecast this
morning. We did increase cloud cover slightly across the northern
and eastern portions of the forecast area. Went ahead and kept the
slight chance to chance probability of precipitation in the forecast for this afternoon
for areas along and east of a Burnet to Karnes City line. A
stalled frontal boundary along with daytime heating could generate
some afternoon convection. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Otherwise...hourly temperatures...dew points and winds were adjusted
based on recent observations.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 600 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/

Aviation...
isolated/scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are possible along and east of a kbmq to kbaz
to kbea line this afternoon and along and north of a kt82 to katt
to k3t5 line tonight. However...will leave mention out of kaus taf
as probs too low. VFR skies prevail today into this evening. MVFR
ceilings develop in the wake of cold frontal passage late this evening
into overnight. Ceilings rise to VFR by midday Tuesday. Except...kdrt
remains VFR. Northwesterly winds 5 to 15 kts prevail today. Except...variable
5 kts or less across eastern areas. Northerly winds 10 to 20 kts with
gusts to 25 kts prevail tonight into Tuesday in the wake of cold
frontal passage.

Previous discussion... /issued 507 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/

Update...
to cancel remaining counties in Tornado Watch. The line of severe
thunderstorms has moved east of our County Warning Area and the threat for
tornadoes has come to an end. Have cancelled the Tornado Watch for
the remaining counties.

Previous discussion... /issued 314 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/

Short term (today through tuesday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed a low over New Mexico with
a 115kt 250mb jet over south Texas. This jest was bringing middle-
level moisture across Mexico from the Pacific. At the surface a
cold front stretched from Mineral Wells to Eagle Pass. Ahead of
the front winds were from the southeast and dew points were in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Behind the front the winds were from the
northwest and dew points were in the 40s. There were thunderstorms
ahead of the cold front moving toward the east. These storms will
likely continue into the first period of this forecast. During
this period the upper low will move across North Texas along the
Red River reaching Arkansas by Tuesday evening. There will be a
trough trailing behind the low from the arklatex region to the
western Panhandle. Flow over south Texas will turn from
southwesterly to westerly and perhaps just north of west. The
surface winds will become northwesterly to northerly behind the
front. This will bring cooler...drier air to our County Warning Area. Showers and
thunderstorms should move off to the east by around noon today.
There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over
the northern counties tonight as the upper low moves across North
Texas. High temperatures Tuesday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler
than Monday.

Long term (tuesday night through sunday)...
the upper low will continue to move toward the east. An upper
ridge will build behind it over the western half of the country.
Flow over Texas will become northerly and lighter as the ridge
becomes dominant. Surface high pressure will move across Texas
from Tuesday night to Friday and across the Mississippi River by
Saturday. Northerly winds will continue until Thursday when the
center of the high moves over our area. By Saturday
southeasterlies return. The forecast is dry for almost all of this
period. There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms in the
southeast Sunday. Temperatures will be below normal for most of
the week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 84 59 73 52 76 / 20 20 10 - 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 83 58 72 51 75 / 20 10 10 - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 59 74 51 76 / 20 - 10 - 0
Burnet Muni Airport 82 56 70 49 75 / 10 30 10 - 0
del Rio International Airport 86 59 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 83 57 71 49 75 / 20 20 10 - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 84 59 75 50 76 / 10 0 - 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 83 60 73 50 75 / 20 10 10 - 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 83 61 73 51 75 / 30 20 10 - 0
San Antonio International Airport 84 60 74 52 76 / 10 - - 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 84 61 74 53 76 / 10 - - 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...03
synoptic/grids...24
public service/data collection...30

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