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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1003 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...CORRECTED...
MONITORING WHAT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THROUGH MID MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT. EML CAPPING/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE
INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY BE A
FOREWARNING OF THINGS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP IS
FORECAST TO ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 

ALSO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH MIDLAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ORIENTATION COULD RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERED PROFILE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER MIXES
OUT AND CAPPING DETERIORATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AN AREA EAST OF
DEL RIO TO SONORA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...DO THINK THE DECENT SHOT
AT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND SOUTH TO THE HWY 57 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SINCE HI RES MODELS SUCH AS TTU WRF AND HRRR ARE KEEPING CI WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...DID NOT INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC
WORDING THROUGH 00Z. BUT AS SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE ENHANCED RISK...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LINE OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS...MORE AS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL AS WELL.

TB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  67  85  59  71 /  40  50  30  20  10 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  66  83  58  72 /  40  50  30  20  10 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  67  85  59  74 /  40  50  30  10  10 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  62  83  56  70 /  50  50  30  30  10 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  87  60  77 /  20  20  10  -   10 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  83  57  69 /  50  50  30  30  10 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  65  85  59  75 /  40  40  20  -   10 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  67  84  60  73 /  40  50  30  10  10 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  69  82  62  73 /  40  50  50  20  10 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  68  86  61  74 /  40  40  20  10  10 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  69  85  62  75 /  40  40  30  10  10 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

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