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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
342 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

Short term (today through friday)...
a couple of weak showers continue from storms that moved into the
western zones late this evening. These should continue to weaken
as they progress north over the next few hours. Otherwise...today
will be hot and dry for much of south central Texas. Cant
completely rule out a stray shower this afternoon but moisture
levels are too low to warrant any mention of activity in the
official forecast at this time. Precipitable water values remain around 1.5
inches or less on Friday and will keep the forecast dry. The
drying of the atmosphere is in response to a building high moving
in from the east. The subsequent subsidence is therefore drying
out the atmosphere and ending rain chances for the area. Low-level
thermal profiles are not expected to change too much and high
temperatures should be persistent...around the middle 90s to near
100 degrees.

&&

Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
the upper high is forecast to weaken and lift north by Sunday.
This is in response to a low pressure system moving into the
northern plains. This should allow moisture values to slowly
increase again with afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity
returning to the forecast on Wednesday. The return of precipitation could
be a bit sooner than that depending on the rate of the moisture
return...but opted to leave the forecast dry until Wednesday for
now. Just beyond the current package...the GFS is forecasting a
fairly progressive trough moving through the plains Thursday which
would send a frontal boundary into Texas Thursday/Friday bringing
rain chances for much of the forecast area. The European model (ecmwf) is much
slower with its handling of the upper trough and keeps high
pressure persistent over the Southern Plains. The more progressive
pattern of the the operational GFS is supported by most of the
gfsensemble members as well as the Canadian so it does bear
watching.

Hampshire

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 100 77 99 75 99 / - - 0 0 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 99 75 99 73 98 / - - 0 0 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 74 100 72 99 / - - 0 0 -
Burnet Muni Airport 97 74 96 73 96 / - - 0 0 -
del Rio International Airport 98 77 99 75 97 / 10 0 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 98 78 97 74 96 / - - 0 0 -
Hondo Muni Airport 99 74 98 72 97 / - 0 0 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 99 76 99 73 97 / - - 0 0 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 99 78 99 76 99 / - - - - 10
San Antonio International Airport 98 79 99 76 98 / - - 0 0 -
Stinson Muni Airport 99 77 100 75 99 / - - 0 0 -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...12
synoptic/grids...29
public service/data collection...99

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