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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
330 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Short term (today through wednesday)...south-central Texas sits
between a middle level ridge across the northern Gulf and middle level
trough axis across northwest Texas. This weakness extends south
through the Permian Basin and Big Bend...and combined with frontal
forcing and low level Theta-E advection has resulted in showers
and storms early this morning across the Permian Basin and
northwest Texas...currently spreading east. Several models
indicate middle level ascent today and interaction with broad low
level convergence near and just north and northwest of the County Warning Area
(closer to frontal boundary). Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast today across the western Edwards
Plateau and far northern Hill Country. Also...a few high
resolution models along with GFS/European model (ecmwf) indicate some quantitative precipitation forecast across
the northern and eastern County Warning Area this afternoon...along and northeast
of a Llano to San Marcos to Gonzales line. A few showers can not
be ruled out in this area this afternoon and early evening.

The rain chances continue across the far northwest County Warning Area into
tonight. Then the middle level trough axis weakens and lifts
northwest Wednesday with gradual drying taking place across the
County Warning Area.

&&

Long term (wednesday night through monday)...drying is shown by
most models Wednesday night and Thursday across the County Warning Area...with
precipitable waters falling to around or below 1 inch across much of the County Warning Area.
A subtle increase in moisture is shown by both the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
across far eastern counties for Friday and Saturday...and will
continue with low probability of precipitation both days for this area. Medium range
models continue to agree that the middle and upper level ridge
across the northern Gulf/southeast U.S. Will build west into the
Southern Plains by Sunday. South-central Texas will remain dry
Sunday and Monday with warming temperatures.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 91 76 93 75 92 / 20 - 0 - 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 91 75 92 74 92 / 20 0 0 - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 74 92 74 92 / 10 - 0 - 0
Burnet Muni Airport 89 74 91 73 92 / 20 10 0 0 0
del Rio International Airport 94 77 95 76 95 / 20 20 10 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 90 75 92 73 92 / 20 - 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 92 74 93 73 93 / - 10 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 91 74 92 74 91 / 10 - 0 - 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 91 76 92 75 91 / 20 - 0 0 -
San Antonio International Airport 91 75 93 75 92 / - - 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 91 74 93 74 92 / - - 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...Oaks
synoptic/grids...runyen

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