Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
517 am CST sun Nov 23 2014

Aviation discussion...for 12z taf package...
kdrt will be battling radiational fog conditions in the first few
hours of the taf period before quickly improving by daybreak. Dont
expect br at other terminals with drier airmass in place.
Otherwise...only other aviation note is breezy west winds in the
afternoon above 11kt. VFR ceilings and visible to prevail.

Tb3

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 326 am CST sun Nov 23 2014/

Short term (today through monday)...
after an active 24-36 hours...the weather has calmed across south
central Texas. There are a few lingering clouds...and surface
winds are light and variable. There is a threat of some fog
towards daybreak given the saturated soils...clear skies and light
winds. However...the westerly component to the wind should keep
things in check for the most part as weak downslope occurs. The
west winds will increase in speed today...into the 15 to 20 miles per hour
range with higher gusts. This will allow temperatures to rise into
the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. Afternoon
humidities will drop below 30 percent...but recent rains should
limit any fire weather concern.

The southern stream upper low which brought our recent rain is now
east of the area and a larger northern stream trough will move
through the plains today. This trough will send a cold front into
the County Warning Area this evening and overnight. No rain is expected and this
front will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normals.

Long term (monday night through saturday)...
the weather in the extended will remain pretty quiet. Temperatures
will be in the 60s most days for highs with lows in the 30s and
40s...including Thanksgiving. Models have different solutions
regarding the next possible cold front which would be next
weekend. The European model (ecmwf) sends it through Saturday morning while the GFS
stalls it well north of the area. The synoptic pattern is not that
favorable for a frontal passage given strong zonal flow in place across the
southern half of the United States. This is day 7 and will opt to
keep south winds prevailing in the forecast.

Hampshire

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 79 45 63 40 61 / 0 - - 10 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 79 43 63 36 62 / 0 - - 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 83 45 65 39 64 / 0 - - - 10
Burnet Muni Airport 78 42 61 37 60 / 0 - - - 10
del Rio International Airport 81 45 65 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 77 43 62 37 60 / 0 - - - 10
Hondo Muni Airport 79 41 65 36 63 / 0 - - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 80 44 64 38 63 / 0 - - 10 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 78 46 65 40 63 / - - 10 10 -
San Antonio International Airport 83 46 65 41 64 / 0 - - - 10
Stinson Muni Airport 83 46 65 41 65 / 0 - - - 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...03
synoptic/grids...29

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations