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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
618 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015

Aviation...
VFR conditions prevail with breezy southerly flow. Overall chances
of convection are too low to mention in the current taf package
but may need to be introduced at a later time. MVFR...then IFR
ceilings are expected tonight before lifting back to VFR by early
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 305 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015/

Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...
visible satellite images are showing several outflow boundaries
across the region including the one that helped storms to fire up
across blanco and Travis counties middle morning. There are still
few thunderstorms on going across western Llano County as they
slowly push to the north. This activity may come to an end within
the next few hours. However...later this evening...a line or
complex of storms are expected to develop along outflow boundaries
pushing west across central Texas...ahead of a dry-line over West
Texas and north of the remnant of this morning surface/outflow
boundary. At this time...some hires models and the 12z GFS
solution continue to indicate convective initiation across central
Texas and pushing across the northern Hill Country for this
evening. Latest hrrr is showing convection north of Burnet and
Llano counties early this evening but dissipate activity around 8
or 9 PM. Latest ecm solution is not showing precipitation across our area
through the first period. With all of these disagreements in
place...we decided to go with the more aggressive solutions which
shows showers and thunderstorms affecting the northern part of
south central Texas tonight. Also...a Flash Flood Watch is in
effect across The Hill Country from 7 PM this evening through 7 am
Thursday. This decision has been made based on going flood issues
across the area and the little amounts of rainfall that will take
for areas to flood in a short period of time. As a reminder...we
have a low confidence on tonight's rain due to poor agreement
between models.

For Thursday night into Friday...our confidence increase as
models agree on bringing a line of strong to severe storms across
the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains. Heavy rain is likely
and flash flooding is possible mainly across area
roads...underpasses...poor drainage areas...and small creeks. A
Flash Flood Watch could be issued for areas west of Highway 83
later tonight or Thursday.

Long term (friday through wednesday)...
showers and thunderstorms will continue across south central Texas
through the upcoming weekend with a drier trend expected for next
week. The subtropical ridge will build across The Four Corners
region and bring drier and warmer days for much of next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 71 87 72 85 70 / 40 40 40 40 30
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 70 86 72 85 70 / 40 40 40 40 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 87 73 85 70 / 30 40 30 40 20
Burnet Muni Airport 70 85 71 82 68 / 40 40 50 40 30
del Rio International Airport 74 88 70 86 72 / 30 30 60 20 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 71 86 72 84 69 / 40 40 40 40 30
Hondo Muni Airport 73 87 73 85 70 / 20 40 40 40 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 86 72 84 69 / 30 40 30 40 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 73 87 74 85 71 / 20 40 30 40 20
San Antonio International Airport 74 87 74 85 71 / 20 30 40 40 20
Stinson Muni Airport 74 87 74 86 72 / 20 30 30 40 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following
counties: Bastrop...blanco...Burnet...Caldwell...Gillespie...Hays...
Lee...Llano...Travis...Williamson.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...Hampshire
synoptic/grids...Oaks
public service/data collection...LH

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