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afdewx 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
632 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail across the I-35 corridor sites
through the period. Across kdrt...light rain is expected to
continue for the next several hours with vbsys running from 4
to 6 sm this evening. Around and after midnight tonight...MVFR
conditions are expected across kdrt to about 17z Thursday. Light
and variable winds are expected through middle morning Thursday. A
light southerly flow is anticipated for Thursday afternoon.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 609 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014/

Update...
an area of light rain continues to build into Val Verde County and
the Edwards Plateau. Increased probability of precipitation up to 60 percent for the
00-03z time frame. High-res guidance is showing some weakening
after 3z. Although probability of precipitation have been increased...rainfall
accumulations will average less than a tenth of an inch.

Hampshire

Previous discussion... /issued 337 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014/

Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...
light to moderate showers continue to spill northeast from the
serranias del burros into the Edwards Plateau...with only a few
hundredths of an inch reaching the ground at drt. Probability of precipitation are thus
artificially low to reflect the low quantitative precipitation forecast amounts that are expected
mainly for this evening. Late tonight model consensus show
weakening lift as subsidence aloft spreads southeast from the
central rockies. Thus central counties will be lucky to see a
sprinkle or two as the weakening shear axis shifts east across the
area. Temperatures should be near or slightly above average under
the extra clouds tonight. No significant temperature changes are
expected Thursday as some residual middle-level clouds linger over
the area with light winds Thursday into Thursday night.

Long term (friday through wednesday)...
upper ridging increases Friday into the weekend to leave warmer
than normal highs and mild lows. Southerly winds should increase
moisture late Sunday into Monday with some morning low clouds
possible Tuesday. Models have been hinting at a front for
Tuesday...but will follow the trends of the GFS which has
backtracked on the idea over the past few runs. The weak troughing
pattern expected for Tuesday into Wednesday may be enough to pool
together enough moisture to produce a slight chance of rain...but
with the weakening frontal trends...will only show chances on
Wednesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 62 83 62 86 64 / - 10 - 0 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 57 83 57 86 58 / - 10 - 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 60 86 60 88 61 / - 10 - 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 59 82 60 85 61 / 10 10 - 0 0
del Rio International Airport 64 83 62 86 63 / 60 10 0 - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 59 81 60 85 62 / - 10 - 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 58 85 58 88 58 / 10 10 - 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 59 84 59 87 60 / - 10 - 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 59 83 58 87 61 / - 10 - 0 0
San Antonio International Airport 63 86 63 88 65 / 10 10 - 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 62 86 62 89 63 / - 10 - 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...17
synoptic/grids...29

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