Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
548 am CST sun Mar 1 2015
Aviation.../12z taf cycle/
Poor flying conditions are ongoing and expected to continue with
LIFR/IFR ceilings combined with 3-5sm visibilities this morning and
-dz/-ra. Little improvement is expected through the day with IFR
ceilings continuing across central taf sites with -dz/vcsh likely.
Kdrt may be able to recover to MVFR by this afternoon and remain
dry. Conditions will fall back towards LIFR overnight Sunday into
early Monday with ceilings below 500 feet. Surface winds will remain out
of the north near 10kt through the period. /Allen/
Previous discussion... /issued 355 am CST sun Mar 1 2015/
Short term (today through monday)...
light rain/drizzle activity will continue to affect areas along
and east of Interstate 35. Also...areas of fog will continue to
develop across much of the area through late this morning. Will
be closely monitoring this situation as areas of fog become
widespread by dawn in case that a dense fog advisory is needed. So
far...northerly winds are averaging 6 to 10 miles per hour and expected to
remain that way...limiting ceilings and vbsys to lower to the ground.
Rain chances will continue across the eastern half of the area
today with relative dry conditions out west. Skies will be cloudy
throughout the day with highs only in the upper 40s across The
Hill Country...lower to middle 50s along the I-35 and upper 50s
across the Rio Grande plains.
Rain chances will be increasing tonight into Monday as upper level
moisture arrives from the southwest. Overnight lows are expected
to drop to the upper 30s across the Hill County and 40s elsewhere.
A cool Monday is in store with mostly cloudy skies and chances of
rain mainly along and east of Highway 281.
Long term (monday night through saturday)...
big changes are on the way for the middle of the week as a Pacific
front meets an Arctic front late Tuesday into Wednesday. On top of
this scenario...upper level flow supports thunderstorm activity
and even heavy downpours over parts of the area. Most models bring
the Arctic front around 12z-15z Wednesday time frame across The
Hill Country with the exception of the NAM solution...which is
delayed by about 6 hours. After getting some good rain-rates over
the area on wednesday(possibly 1 to 2 inches in some
places)...another cold airmass will spread southward in the wake
of the Arctic front. By the time the cold airmass arrives across
the area...most of the precipitation has pushed to the south.
However...there is a chance for another winter precipitation type
event across The Hill Country in a form of light snow. Area
forecast soundings across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country support the formation of light snow Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning along and north of a Pandale to Bourne to
Georgetown line. Snow accumulations should be very light with no
impacts expected at this time. Note...just have in back of your
mind that rain is expected earlier in the day and temperatures are
forecast to drop quickly Wednesday afternoon/early evening before
rain transition to snow...and this can pose travel impacts across
The Hill Country. Stay tuned for more details on this new weather
scenario and challenging weather package in days to come.
Will keep the latter part of the forecast with cloudy skies and
cool but rain chances come to an end Thursday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 49 41 50 50 73 / 30 40 40 30 30
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 50 41 51 51 75 / 30 40 40 30 30
New Braunfels Muni Airport 53 44 53 53 75 / 30 30 30 30 30
Burnet Muni Airport 47 39 47 47 72 / 30 40 40 40 30
del Rio International Airport 62 51 58 54 79 / 10 20 20 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 48 40 48 48 72 / 30 50 40 30 30
Hondo Muni Airport 58 47 56 56 77 / 20 20 30 30 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 51 43 52 52 74 / 30 30 30 30 30
La Grange - Fayette regional 53 46 54 54 74 / 40 40 40 20 30
San Antonio International Airport 55 46 55 55 75 / 20 20 30 30 30
Stinson Muni Airport 56 47 55 55 77 / 20 20 30 30 30