Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
314 am MDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Synopsis...
high pressure aloft will bring seasonably hot mostly dry weather
to southern New Mexico and West Texas today through Friday with
only slight chances for mainly mountain thunderstorms. More moist
unstable air will flow into the region next weekend and this will
result in a few more thunderstorms across the Borderland.

&&

Discussion...
water vapor images showing moisture plume still covering most of
southern New Mexico and West Texas early this morning. However
center of high pressure aloft is now positioned near the southern
Arizona border and this in turn is causing middle level flow to
become more northerly over the County Warning Area. Consequently warm drier
Continental air aloft will flow into the region the next few days.
Precipitable water should fall below an inch most areas by
Wednesday with air mass becoming more stable. So for today expect
only slight chances for thunder High Mountain and southern zones
with convection restricted to mainly mountain areas Wednesday
through Saturday afternoon. Abundant sunshine and subsidence will
also allow afternoon high temperatures to be around 4 to 8 degrees
above normal through Friday.

Later this week unseasonably strong upper trough will enter the
the western United States with high pressure aloft becoming
centered over the Southern Plains. Resultant flow and
trajectories will be favorable for transport of moisture from the
Gulf and Mexico and/or Gulf of California causing precipitable
water to rise above an inch. Increase in moisture will destabilize
air mass and thus expect thunderstorm coverage to increase
this coming weekend.

&&

Aviation...valid 04/12z-05/12z.
Very isolated areas of MVFR ceilings and visibility in showers
and thunderstorms mainly between 20z and 03z. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected with areas of ceilings above 10,000 feet.
Winds may gust to 40 knots near thunderstorms but otherwise wind
speeds will remain mostly less than 15 knots.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure aloft will bring seasonably hot mostly dry weather
to southern New Mexico and West Texas today through Friday with
only slight chances for mainly mountain thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be around 4 to 8 degrees above normal through
Friday. More moist unstable air will flow into the region next
weekend and this will result in a few more thunderstorms across
the Borderland.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 101 75 103 76 / 10 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 98 71 99 70 / 20 10 0 0
Las Cruces 98 70 101 71 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 100 70 103 69 / 10 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 76 54 78 55 / 20 10 20 20
Truth or Consequences 98 69 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 89 64 91 65 / 20 0 10 10
Deming 100 70 101 70 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 99 67 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 101 74 104 74 / 10 0 0 0
Dell City 100 72 102 72 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 103 72 103 72 / 20 0 0 0
Loma Linda 93 71 96 71 / 10 0 0 0
Fabens 103 72 103 72 / 10 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 99 72 102 73 / 10 0 0 0
White Sands hq 100 72 102 72 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 99 70 102 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 98 70 103 70 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 99 70 101 71 / 10 0 0 0
Orogrande 99 72 102 72 / 10 0 0 0
Mayhill 85 60 87 60 / 20 10 20 20
Mescalero 85 58 87 57 / 20 0 20 20
Timberon 85 61 88 61 / 20 10 20 20
Winston 88 60 89 61 / 20 0 20 20
Hillsboro 94 67 97 68 / 10 0 10 10
spaceport 98 70 101 71 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 89 58 91 59 / 20 0 10 10
Hurley 91 65 94 66 / 10 0 0 0
cliff 97 61 98 63 / 20 0 0 0
Mule Creek 93 59 94 60 / 10 0 0 0
Faywood 92 66 94 67 / 20 0 0 0
Animas 98 67 99 68 / 10 0 0 0
Hachita 99 68 100 68 / 10 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 94 66 96 67 / 10 0 0 0
Cloverdale 89 65 92 65 / 10 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

05 rogash

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations