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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
409 am MDT sun Aug 30 2015

Synopsis...
an upper high over Southeast Arizona will gradually move
east...over New Mexico Monday and then over eastern New Mexico and
western Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture today and Monday will
be concentrated out west of Deming...hence that is where most
thunderstorms are expected today. As the high moves east the
moisture will also spread eastward. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected for most of the Borderland Tuesday through Friday.

&&

Discussion...
upper high now over the Sierra madres of northern Mexico though
hard to see circulation in WV imagery. Vorticity center over eastern
New Mexico dropping south and should be south of County Warning Area next few
hours. This feature also helping to force upper high further west.
Nice dry slot moving south behind the vorticity center and should
bring to the eastern County Warning Area some of the lower precipitable waters we've seen in
sometime. Tpw imagery shows precipitable waters in the east around 1.1 inch with
readings of .75 inches not too far to our northeast. Both NAM/GFS
bring those low precipitable waters over the eastern County Warning Area. As upper high shifts
into eastern Arizona later today moisture plume should also
concentrate out toward Arizona. Best chance of thunderstorms
should be over the mountains (mainly the black range) and west of
Deming. Little or no chance to the east of this area. Monday
basically will be a repeat of today.

By later Monday into Tuesday the high will begin shifting east and
elongating southwest-northeast as blocking low develops far East
Texas and deep troughing continues off the West Coast of the U.S.
This will allow the moisture plume to shift east and redistribute
moisture rather uniformly across the County Warning Area. Precipitable waters should be back at
around one inch or slightly higher. Put probability of precipitation back into all areas.

Upper ridge pretty much remains stationary in blocking pattern
through Friday with isolated/scattered thunderstorms each day. GFS
now showing significant moisture increase into the area for next
weekend. High circulation within ridge over northern Mexico drops
further south giving a better southerly wind flow at middle levels.
And upper low...possibly tropical in origin...also moves north out
of the eastern Pacific and up toward the Desert Southwest. Did
trend late period up some toward this solution. However latest
European model (ecmwf) not near as bullish on forecast...so big grain of salt also
included in forecast.

&&

Aviation...valid 30/12z-31/12z.
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Until
15z west of Deming...sct-bkn120 isolated -shra bkn100. Developing after
17z mainly over mountains and west of Deming...scattered -tsra
bkn100cb with isolated 1-3sm +tsra ceilings below 020.

&&

Fire weather...
drier air filtering in over the eastern fire zones should limit
thunderstorms to the mountain zones and lowland zones Deming
west...both today and again on Monday. Upper high shifting back
east over eastern New Mexico Tuesday and beyond will also
distribute moisture more evenly and give all fire zones a chance
of thunderstorms for Tuesday and beyond.

Minimum relative humidity values will remain in the 20s to 30s...with good
overnight recovery. No significant non-thunderstorm winds are
expected through the period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 94 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 10
Sierra Blanca 94 66 96 67 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 93 66 95 67 / 0 0 0 10
Alamogordo 94 67 96 68 / 0 0 10 10
Cloudcroft 71 48 73 50 / 10 0 20 20
Truth or Consequences 91 66 92 67 / 10 20 30 20
Silver City 85 63 86 64 / 40 30 50 30
Deming 93 65 94 67 / 20 20 30 20
Lordsburg 93 64 94 66 / 20 20 30 20
west El Paso metropolitan 94 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 10
Dell City 95 66 98 67 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 96 68 98 70 / 0 0 0 10
Loma Linda 91 66 93 68 / 0 0 0 10
Fabens 95 67 98 70 / 0 0 0 10
Santa Teresa 94 69 95 70 / 0 0 0 10
White Sands hq 94 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 10
Jornada range 94 66 95 67 / 0 0 10 10
Hatch 94 66 96 66 / 0 0 20 10
Columbus 94 66 95 67 / 10 10 20 20
Orogrande 94 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 10
Mayhill 77 53 81 56 / 20 0 20 20
Mescalero 80 53 82 56 / 20 0 20 20
Timberon 79 55 81 57 / 10 0 20 20
Winston 81 55 83 59 / 50 30 60 30
Hillsboro 91 62 91 66 / 40 20 40 30
spaceport 92 66 94 67 / 0 0 20 10
Lake Roberts 83 52 85 55 / 60 30 60 30
Hurley 87 63 88 64 / 30 20 40 30
cliff 88 58 90 58 / 30 20 40 30
Mule Creek 87 55 88 57 / 40 20 40 20
Faywood 89 62 90 65 / 30 20 40 30
Animas 92 66 93 66 / 30 20 30 20
Hachita 92 64 93 65 / 30 20 30 30
Antelope Wells 88 63 90 64 / 50 20 40 30
Cloverdale 85 61 87 65 / 50 20 40 20

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

17/ Hefner

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