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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
251 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Synopsis...
winds will taper off after sunset this evening as temperatures
cool across the Borderland. Daytime clouds will dissolve leaving
skies mostly clear overnight. Sunday will be generally dry and
sunny as a low pressure system begins to exit east. Temperatures
will warm about 5 degrees and winds will be noticeably lighter.
Just a bit of lingering moisture aloft may allow for a stray
elevated thunderstorm over the mountains in the afternoon hours.
The weather repeats Monday. Tuesday Onward stronger winds return for
each afternoon with Thursday looking the strongest for the week.
Generally dry conditions look to hold for the week ahead but a
Pacific low pressure system does track across the region Thursday
to bring increased clouds...and maybe a stray shower or storm.

&&

Discussion...
large upper-level low pressure system spins over east Colorado. It is
S-l-o-W-l-y drifting east towards Kansas. We sit under the southern
periphery of this system with a bit of middle-level moisture and
large-scale weak forcing aloft. The result thus far today has been
to rotate a nice cumulus-field over the northern zones from the northwest.
However still no enhanced radar echos or lightning. Most of the
cumulus is quite flat. Very reasonable given the actual 12z sounding
and the forecast 18-00z soundings. Should be a shallow layer of
moisture with precipitable waters at 1/3". Models do show the atmosphere leaning
toward marginally unstable with lifted indice's near 0 and cape less than 100
j/kg. Bottom line is that storm potential is there...but it is
marginal with only isolated and weak storms. Both the hrrr and WRF
models show late afternoon/early evening storms over Sierra/Otero counties
as do the GFS and NAM. Thus slight chance wording in the forecast
for those areas for the evening hours tonight. Threats/impact would
be strong outflow wind/low visibility with dust.

For Sunday it appears we will see very simular weather conditions
with regards to today. With the low exiting and heights and
thicknesses rising along with lighter winds we should gain about
5-7 degrees on temperatures Sunday. Sunday's moisture profile resembles
today's with just a thin layer of moderately moist air aloft. We
will continue to see very minor (weak) impulses aloft track over
in west-northwest flow. With orographics we could see a few mountain
storms...but again isolated and weak. The Lowlands should stay
dry. Lighter winds will be the bigger deal as winds drop below the
breezy category of 15 to 25 miles per hour.

Tuesday the pattern becomes more southwest oriented and that means
wind will be on the increase again. A deepening Pacific trough to
our west and a deepening surface trough to our east will tighten
gradients and increase winds. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry...
a few degrees warmer than normal...and breezy.

Thursday the West Coast low pressure system arrives with what
appears to be minimal moisture. Despite appearing to struggle with
it the models do spit out some quantitative precipitation forecast and thus what looks to be
isolated showers and thunderstorms. For now we are ignoring the
slight precipitation potential in favor what what should be a larger
impact...wind. Thursday looks windy but clouds may temper the
speeds a bit.

Friday the Pacific storm system passes and a moderately weak
Pacific front pushes in to bring a small bit of cooling and
lighter winds. Models suggest a short wave ridge to build over the
area Saturday allowing temperatures to warm with dry conditions.

14-bird

&&

Aviation...valid 19/00z-20/00z...
scattered-broken cumulus fields will persist into the early evening hours
generally north of a svc-lru line...with bases running between 9-10k
feet. A few isolated showers may affect areas north of tcs.
Elsewhere...mostly clear skies will prevail. West to northwest
winds will range 15-20 knots with gusts 25-30 knots...with a few
higher gusts possible in SW New Mexico. Winds will diminish fairly
quickly after sunset. Expect similar conditions tomorrow with lower
wind speeds. A few isolated convective showers or even a
thunderstorm will affect the area tomorrow...favoring areas north of
an lsb-lru line.

25-hardiman

&&

Fire weather...
winds will continue to slowly increase over then next few hours
due to a strong upper low over Colorado and an increasingly
strong pressure gradient. Relative humidity values have dropped into the low and
middle teens. Current red flag warning looks good and will continue
through 8 PM. The upper low will move east into the plains
tomorrow...while a weak backdoor cold front stalls out over the
area. A secondary upper level disturbance and this front will
bring a slight chance for thunderstorms to the higher terrain
areas Sunday afternoon and evening. Lighter winds will prevail
early next week...with increasing southwest flow beyond Wednesday.

25-hardiman

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 52 80 54 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 46 76 49 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 45 78 48 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 45 76 49 78 49 / 0 10 10 0 0
Cloudcroft 34 56 36 58 39 / 10 10 10 10 0
Truth or Consequences 46 76 48 78 48 / 0 10 10 0 0
Silver City 40 71 43 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Deming 42 80 44 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 40 79 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 52 80 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dell City 46 79 50 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 48 80 52 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 48 73 50 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fabens 48 80 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 47 80 50 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 50 77 53 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 40 78 44 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hatch 44 79 46 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 47 78 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 48 77 52 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 39 64 39 66 43 / 10 10 10 0 0
Mescalero 38 63 40 66 41 / 10 10 10 0 0
Timberon 39 64 41 66 42 / 10 10 10 0 0
Winston 36 69 39 72 39 / 10 10 10 0 0
Hillsboro 42 75 44 77 45 / 0 10 10 0 0
spaceport 41 78 44 79 44 / 0 0 10 0 0
Lake Roberts 37 69 39 71 39 / 10 10 10 0 0
Hurley 39 73 42 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
cliff 39 78 40 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 33 75 37 76 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Faywood 41 74 44 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Animas 44 79 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hachita 42 79 45 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 42 78 46 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 41 74 44 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...red flag warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for nmz111-112.

Texas...red flag warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for txz055-056.

&&

$$

14/25

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