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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
216 PM MST Thursday Dec 25 2014

Synopsis...
a low pressure system with a cold front will move slowly across
southern New Mexico and West Texas tonight through Saturday. This
disturbance will bring windy conditions late this afternoon and
tonight along with chances of lowland rains and mountain snows
mainly tonight and Friday. Cooler air will also flow into the
Borderland behind the front and this will cause temperatures to
fall below normal Friday through Sunday. A cold front and an upper
level low pressure system will bring cool weather with chances for
rain or snow Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

Discussion...
rather deep upper low was located over northern Utah early this
afternoon with primary trough axis trailing southward into western
Arizona. This system will have several embedded vorticity
centers/impulses which will rotate to the northeast ahead of the
primary trough through the next two days.

The upper low will subsequently drop southward into northern
Arizona tonight with first upper vorticity axis moving to the
northeast through the County Warning Area. Meanwhile surface cold front will push
to the southeast into the County Warning Area later tonight and Friday morning.
Gradients will remain strong at the surface and aloft so expect
windy conditions to persist into at least early this evening.
Upward motion will meanwhile be intensifying as frontogenetic
forcing will exist at low levels beneath differential positive vorticity advection aloft
with the County Warning Area located in right rear quadrant of 130 knots upper jet
streak. Thus expect widespread precipitation to spread eastward
from western areas into central zones and higher mountains
overnight. Cold air advection behind the front combined with
dynamic cooling aloft will also cause snow levels top fall to 6000
before by sunrise.

Front will be south of the County Warning Area by noon Friday with cold air inflow
cooling tomorrow high temperatures around 15 degrees or about 10
degrees below normal. Another upper wave will also move across the
County Warning Area inducing lowland rain showers and mountain snows...mainly
during the morning hours. Total snow amounts indicate a possible
advisory may be required for both Gila and sacs mainly from late
this evening through Friday morning. Primary trough axis finally
slides southeast across New Mexico/West Texas on Saturday
sustaining cool below normal temperatures and inducing a few
lowland rain and mountain snow showers. Zonal/westerly flow will
then bring warmer dry weather for Monday.

Beyond Monday deterministic models have had difficulties in being
consistent with both one another and themselves from run to run.
However today's 12z European model (ecmwf) and GFS are in rather good agreement
through 180 hours or day 7. Examining the models plus the super
blend data indicates that a back door cold front will push
westward through the County Warning Area Tuesday with Wednesday and Thursday
temperatures cooling to around 10 degrees below normal.
Concurrently a deep upper low will drop southward and then move
eastward across Southern California into Arizona Wednesday and
Thursday bringing a threat of rain and/or snow across The Lowlands
with snow possible mountains.

&&

Aviation...valid 26/00z- 27/00z...
band of high clouds departing S/c nm and far West Texas has slowed down
mixing by a few hours at several terminals...most notably dmn and
elp. Winds aloft remain strong out of the southwest...though not
strong enough for low level wind shear in the tafs. Expect winds to increase over
the next 1-2 hours at dmn and elp...with a brief window for aww
criteria at elp...most likely between 22z and 00z.

Winds will remain gusty into the evening hours...but with incoming
shortwave trough...atmosphere will remain fairly well mixed with no
strong mountaintop inversion...thus winds will fall off before
midnight.

Band of rain and snow showers will move into SW nm before
midnight...reaching the Continental Divide around 09z...and the El
Paso area right around dawn. Snow levels will drop to around 5000
feet... and there will be a narrow window for rasn mix as precipitation
tapers off behind the front at tcs/dmn/lru early in the morning.
Ceilings will drop into IFR territory for a time...improving within
a few hours after precipitation departs.

&&

Fire weather...
gusty southwest winds have been slow to materialize over some
portions of the area due to limited mixing...but will continue to
increase through the remainder of the afternoon. An upper level
disturbance and weak Pacific front will move across the area
tonight...bringing scattered rain and snow showers to the
area...with snow levels dropping to around 5500 feet by early Friday
morning. Parts of the Gila region and sacramentos may see light
snowfall accumulations of 2-5 inches by Friday morning...highest
above 7500 feet...with locally higher amounts above 8500 feet.
Below-normal temperatures (5-10 deg) will persist into early next
week...with a backdoor cold front arriving Tuesday morning. Another
significant upper level disturbance may bring more precipitation chances to
the area late in the week.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 42 51 31 47 26 / 20 50 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 40 55 31 46 25 / 10 20 10 20 20
Las Cruces 37 49 26 45 23 / 40 30 0 0 0
Alamogordo 34 47 24 44 20 / 40 30 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 20 29 12 28 14 / 50 50 10 0 0
Truth or Consequences 33 46 23 41 22 / 30 20 0 0 0
Silver City 26 38 19 38 21 / 60 20 0 0 0
Deming 33 48 22 45 21 / 50 30 0 0 0
Lordsburg 31 44 20 43 21 / 60 20 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 44 50 33 46 29 / 20 50 0 0 0
Dell City 37 57 28 47 22 / 10 30 10 10 0
Fort Hancock 40 57 31 50 25 / 10 30 10 20 10
Loma Linda 39 46 30 42 25 / 20 40 0 0 0
Fabens 39 53 29 48 24 / 20 40 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 39 51 26 46 23 / 30 50 0 0 0
White Sands hq 40 48 29 45 26 / 40 40 0 0 0
Jornada range 30 48 19 45 17 / 40 30 0 0 0
Hatch 34 49 24 46 22 / 40 20 0 0 0
Columbus 40 50 28 46 25 / 50 50 0 0 0
Orogrande 38 48 26 44 23 / 30 40 0 0 0
Mayhill 29 40 19 35 17 / 50 50 20 0 0
Mescalero 25 37 15 34 16 / 50 50 10 0 0
Timberon 28 38 19 35 18 / 50 50 20 0 0
Winston 25 38 17 37 18 / 40 20 0 0 0
Hillsboro 31 43 21 40 21 / 40 20 0 0 0
spaceport 29 47 20 44 19 / 40 20 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 23 36 15 37 17 / 60 20 0 0 0
Hurley 30 40 18 40 20 / 60 10 0 0 0
cliff 24 41 15 43 18 / 60 10 0 0 0
Mule Creek 19 38 11 40 15 / 60 10 0 0 0
Faywood 31 41 21 40 22 / 60 20 0 0 0
Animas 34 48 23 46 22 / 60 30 0 0 0
Hachita 33 49 21 46 19 / 60 30 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 36 50 22 47 19 / 60 40 0 0 0
Cloverdale 35 46 21 44 21 / 70 40 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for nmz401>409.

Wind Advisory until 5 am MST Friday for nmz413.

Wind Advisory until midnight MST tonight for nmz414>416.

Texas...Wind Advisory until 5 am MST Friday for txz419.

&&

$$

05 rogash/25 hardiman

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