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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
357 am MDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

Synopsis...
a dry westerly flow will occur over the region the next couple of
days. As a result...breezy to windy conditions will occur today
and tomorrow. Stronger wind gusts will be possible along east
slopes of area mountains. Above normal temperatures also occur. A
cold front will lower temperatures back to slightly below normal
on Friday. Winds will be lighter Friday and Saturday. Strong west
winds will return Sunday and persist much of next week with
continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures.

&&

Discussion...
the weak upper low pressure system that brought a few showers and
thunderstorms to the region yesterday has exited to the east. A
strong and dry westerly zonal flow will become established over
the area today. This along with a deepening surface trough to the
east will result in mostly breezy winds this afternoon.
Temperatures will rebound back up above normal with lower 80s
possible for The Lowlands. Skies will be mostly sunny with a few
high thin clouds passing overhead. The west flow will keep
temperatures mild overnight.

Winds will be stronger on Thursday as a passing upper level system
north of the state enhances both the westerly flow and surface
trough. Windy conditions can be expected by middle day for most
areas. Some locations...especially along the tops of mountains and
along the eastern slopes have the potential to reach Wind Advisory
criteria on Thursday afternoon. Winds may also approach advisory
levels over lowland portions of southwest New Mexico. Blowing dust
will not be widespread...but some localized patches of blowing
dust and sand may occur near disturbed soil areas on Thursday
afternoon. Temperatures will remain above normal. The west flow
will scour out any residual moisture from the region...which along
with the windy conditions will result in fire danger conditions
across much of the area on Thursday afternoon.

The passing upper level system will drag a Pacific cool front
across the area by Thursday night and early Friday which cool
temperatures around 10 degrees on Friday. Winds will shift around
to the north and and eventually east on Friday. A few of the
models are projecting some moisture may be transported into the
area behind the front. There is a slight chance of showers for
portions of Hudspeth and Otero counties Saturday and Saturday
night. Rain amounts will be spotty and light.

The strong west flow will return on Sunday with breezy conditions
and warmer above normal temperatures expected. The first part of
next week will be dry and warm with a west to southwest flow
continuing over southern New Mexico and far West Texas.

&&

Aviation...valid 01/12z-02/12z...
VFR conditions with p6sm few080-100 sct250 expected at all
terminals through taf period. Primary concern will be increasing surface
winds during the day with strong westerly flow aloft mixing down
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Surface winds will remain
at or below 12 knots through 17z with speeds increasing to 15-20
knots gusting to 30 knots between 17z and 06z.

&&

Fire weather...
a much more typical weather pattern for this time of the year is
expected over the next couple of days with breezy to windy
conditions common with low relative humidities and highs in the
80s. Today will see near critical winds and relative humidities but
expect both to fall short of 3 hour criteria. As an upper trough
crosses The Rockies Thursday...critical conditions are expected to
develop area wide. As a result...a Fire Weather Watch is in
effect. Less wind is expected on back side of system for Friday
with a back door cold front Friday night which will cool
temperatures about 10 degrees for Saturday. Hot and dry conditions
return Sunday and into early next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 84 59 85 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 80 52 83 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 82 49 83 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 82 51 82 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 62 38 63 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 81 50 80 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Silver City 73 44 72 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Deming 82 47 83 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 80 44 81 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 83 58 85 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dell City 84 52 86 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 84 55 88 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 78 54 79 51 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fabens 84 56 86 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 83 53 84 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 82 55 82 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 82 44 82 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hatch 82 48 83 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 82 52 83 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 82 53 83 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 70 46 70 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 70 41 69 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Timberon 69 44 69 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Winston 74 40 73 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 78 46 77 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
spaceport 82 44 82 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 71 39 70 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hurley 75 44 75 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
cliff 79 42 79 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 77 34 76 30 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Faywood 76 45 76 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Animas 81 47 81 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hachita 82 46 82 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 81 46 82 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 77 45 78 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for nmz110>113.

Texas...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for txz055-056.

&&

$$

04/27

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