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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
402 am MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Synopsis...
upper high over central Texas will slowly drift west. For today
moisture and instability remain across most of the area for
scattered thunderstorms. The Rio Grande Valley may avoid most rain
as the upper high begins stabilizing this area out. The upper high
moves over New Mexico Friday and will remain there through Tuesday.
This will limit thunderstorms to just the mountains as the airmass
dries out a bit.

&&

Discussion...
fairly active early morning as mesoscale convective system has formed on east side of
moisture plume. In it's early stages a strong line of
thunderstorms developed from northern Mexico up to Las Cruces.
Some areas of MDT/heavy rain fell. The strength of the cells has
diminished and now the system is more spread out with areas of MDT
rain. Cloud top temperatures reached -75c around midnight but has warmed
to around -65c as system transitions to more of a stratiform rain.
Cloud mass now covering entire Rio Grande Valley and out to the
bootheel. Clouds and rain will continue to spread northwest this
morning. System will likely throw wrench into today's convection
formation. Pattern would suggest scattered thunderstorms mountains
and Deming west...but the mesoscale convective system may delay/inhibit convection west of
the Rio Grande Valley. For now will let afternoon/evening grids
reflect this pattern but day shift may have to update. Also put a
low pop back in for most of West Texas as WV imagery shows a weak
easterly wave over The Big Bend...and models move that up to the
area this afternoon.

Upper high over central Texas today will move over New Mexico
Friday and persist there through at least Sunday. This should
diminish thunderstorm coverage some...with low end scattered
thunderstorms mountains and isolated thunderstorms mainly Deming
west.

GFS and European model (ecmwf) have been varying solutions after Sunday but latest
runs of both are pretty close. They both stretch high out into
east-West Ridge initially over southern New Mexico...then move the
high back over eastern New Mexico and Texas Panhandle by
Wednesday and leaving it there into next weekend. For now will
just leave later period grids with the super blend.

&&

Aviation...valid 31/12z-01/12z.
From 12z to around 16z west of the Rio Grande Valley...bkn120
ovc200 layers to 400. Scattered -shra bkn100 with a few thunderstorms and rain
bkn080cb wind gusts 25-35 kts. To the east generally VFR. Developing after
18z...scattered -tsra bkn100cb with occasional IFR ceiling visibility +tsra. These
storms will cover mostly the mountains and areas from Deming west.

&&

Fire weather...
large convective system has formed west of the Rio Grande Valley
and will produce areas of showers and thunderstorms through much
of the morning. For this afternoon and tonight...new thunderstorms
will develop over the mountain zones and The Lowlands from Deming
west. Upper high moving over New Mexico Friday through Sunday
should decrease thunderstorm coverage some and limit them mostly
to the mountain zones and far west lowlands. Temperatures will
remain near normal today and Friday and then warm above normal for
the weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 96 74 97 75 / 10 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 93 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 94 68 96 69 / 20 20 0 0
Alamogordo 93 67 96 68 / 20 10 10 10
Cloudcroft 70 49 73 51 / 40 40 30 20
Truth or Consequences 91 69 94 69 / 20 20 10 20
Silver City 84 63 87 64 / 50 50 20 20
Deming 93 69 95 69 / 40 30 10 10
Lordsburg 93 68 95 68 / 30 30 20 20
west El Paso metropolitan 96 73 97 73 / 10 10 0 0
Dell City 95 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 97 73 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 91 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 97 72 97 71 / 0 10 0 0
Santa Teresa 95 71 96 72 / 10 10 0 0
White Sands hq 94 69 96 70 / 10 10 0 0
Jornada range 93 68 96 68 / 10 10 0 0
Hatch 93 68 96 68 / 20 20 0 0
Columbus 93 70 96 70 / 40 20 10 0
Orogrande 94 70 96 70 / 10 10 0 0
Mayhill 80 55 82 57 / 40 40 30 20
Mescalero 80 54 83 55 / 40 30 30 20
Timberon 80 56 82 57 / 40 30 30 10
Winston 82 57 85 60 / 60 40 30 30
Hillsboro 90 65 94 65 / 30 30 20 10
spaceport 91 68 95 68 / 20 10 0 10
Lake Roberts 83 57 86 58 / 50 50 30 30
Hurley 85 64 90 65 / 40 40 20 20
cliff 91 60 92 63 / 40 40 30 20
Mule Creek 89 58 92 60 / 40 40 30 30
Faywood 87 65 92 66 / 40 30 20 10
Animas 93 68 95 67 / 30 30 20 10
Hachita 92 67 96 67 / 30 30 10 10
Antelope Wells 89 66 93 66 / 30 30 10 20
Cloverdale 87 66 91 65 / 30 30 20 10

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

Hefner

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