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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
351 am MDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Synopsis...
southeast flow at the lower levels will continue to bring modest
amounts of moisture into the Borderland...with the greatest amount
of moisture near the Arizona border. Therefore thunderstorms will
be isolated this afternoon and evening east of the Rio Grande and
becoming more numerous west of the Continental Divide. On the
weekend a weather disturbance will increase the chance of
thunderstorms in the eastern portion somewhat.

&&

Discussion...
overall thunderstorm activity was down Wednesday but a few areas
that have been dry for days scored a little rain...including east
El Paso. Today should be a similar pattern with the upper high
centered over the Texas Panhandle and extending overhead...and low
level southeast flow importing some moisture. The deepest moisture
will continue to be near the Arizona border. An active Tuesday
stabilized that area somewhat for Wednesday...but the atmosphere
should recover for scattered thunderstorms west of The Divide
today. Farther east...especially east of the Rio Grande will again
struggle to produce isolated storms.

By Saturday (as early as Friday afternoon) an inverted trough from
the southeast should allow a modest increase in storms east of the
Rio Grande while the western section continues to be active. This
should persist into Sunday. Not a grand slam for the east but at
least better than the past few days. Temperatures should slide to a
couple of degrees below normal as well. Then early next week will
return to the current scenario with scattered storms west and only
a few east.

Speaking of next week...the latest medium range models are
changing the pattern late in the week by pushing the upper high
out to the West Coast and putting an unseasonably deep trough over
the Midwest...with our area inbetween. This would make US
vulnerable to back door fronts...upper waves from the north and
below normal temperatures after midweek. It looks a little radical and
too far out for any confidence but Worth watching.

&&

Aviation...valid 10/1200z - 11/1200z
steering flow around upper level high pressure to the north will
keep only modest moisture in much of the flying area. Exception
will be generally west of the Continental Divide...where scattered
thunderstorms and rain/visibility 2sm/cigs040-060/wnd vrb25g40kt are expected after 18z.
Elsewhere...coverage will be isolated. Outside storms...expect p6sm
few- sct070-090 few120-130 few- sct200-250.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure aloft forecast to move from over the Texas Panhandle
today to over the western U.S. Next week. For the next couple of
days moisture will be deepest west of the Continental Divide and
thus allow for greatest thunderstorm coverage. Elsewhere storms
will be isolated in somewhat drier air.

Storm coverage should ramp up all areas Saturday as an inverted
trough moves across southern nm and West Texas this weekend. After
this...storm coverage will return to scattered west and isolated
at best eastern portion for early next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 96 74 95 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
Sierra Blanca 87 63 88 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
Las Cruces 94 68 93 70 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alamogordo 95 69 93 71 91 / 10 10 20 20 10
Cloudcroft 74 50 74 52 69 / 40 20 40 20 40
Truth or Consequences 93 70 93 69 88 / 20 20 20 20 20
Silver City 86 65 86 64 83 / 30 30 30 20 30
Deming 93 66 92 70 91 / 20 20 20 10 20
Lordsburg 92 68 92 69 88 / 30 30 30 20 30
west El Paso metropolitan 97 74 94 74 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dell City 94 65 93 66 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
Fort Hancock 95 70 94 74 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
Loma Linda 85 62 87 70 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
Fabens 95 71 95 72 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
Santa Teresa 94 70 94 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
White Sands hq 92 72 92 72 92 / 10 10 10 20 20
Jornada range 92 64 93 66 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
Hatch 93 68 94 68 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
Columbus 93 72 92 70 89 / 10 10 20 10 10
Orogrande 95 67 96 70 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
Mayhill 82 52 81 61 74 / 30 20 30 20 30
Mescalero 84 53 84 58 77 / 30 20 40 20 30
Timberon 83 50 82 57 74 / 30 20 40 20 30
Winston 81 61 83 64 81 / 40 30 40 40 30
Hillsboro 86 63 87 71 88 / 20 20 20 20 20
spaceport 94 68 92 68 90 / 20 10 20 10 10
Lake Roberts 83 60 86 59 82 / 40 30 40 30 30
Hurley 87 66 87 64 84 / 30 30 30 20 20
cliff 89 65 89 58 86 / 30 30 40 30 30
Mule Creek 88 60 87 57 84 / 30 30 50 40 40
Faywood 86 62 86 68 88 / 30 30 20 20 20
Animas 93 71 94 71 88 / 30 30 30 20 30
Hachita 93 68 94 68 90 / 20 20 20 10 20
Antelope Wells 92 68 94 71 87 / 20 20 20 20 20
Cloverdale 90 63 90 66 84 / 30 40 30 30 30

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

01 fausett

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