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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
248 PM MDT sun Aug 30 2015

Synopsis...
deep monsoon moisture has shifted sharply to the west as much
drier air has pushed in from the midwestern U.S. This means the
focus for storms will shift to areas west of the Rio Grande
Valley through at least Monday. Afternoon temperatures will be
warmer with fewer clouds. Tuesday...and more so for middle week...
the moisture makes a return to all areas as the upper ridge shifts
back over the area. This will bring rain and storm chances back to
all areas by Wednesday through the rest of the work week.
Increased moisture looks to arrive for better widespread rain
chances for next weekend.

&&

Discussion...
in the near term water vapor satellite imagery shows that remarkable
drying in the middle and upper levels has taken place over all but
the areas west of the Continental Divide today. Surface dewpoints
are dropping with mixing this afternoon and some sites are reading
in the 40s. Precipitable water on the am sounding was just over an inch but model
forecasts show it dropping to below 3/4" this afternoon. May see a very
isolated shower/storm east this afternoon...but they should be
quick to dissipate. Thus all probability of precipitation for this evening are west...and
the east is pop-free. With drier air in place overnight temperatures
should be a bit cooler.

For Monday the pattern looks to remain unchanged with the upper
high the bulk of the moisture remaining west of the region. The
Divide for adequate moisture should be the Continental Divide with
areas west having rain/storm chances...and areas east being dry.
Temperatures will stay warm.

Tuesday the upper high begins an eastward shift back over the
County warning forecast area. With the highs return moisture begins to filter back in
from the west. Timing may be late to get enough moisture back into
the far east zones to line up with heating and instability...so
for the daytime period...dry forecast far east...but allow probability of precipitation
back in the forecast for the evening hours.

Wednesday-Friday the pattern remains static with the upper ridge parked
over the region with plenty of moisture trapped across the area
under this broad area of generally light winds and seasonal temperatures.
Thus the forecast each day will repeat with mostly isolated storms
across The Lowlands each aftn/eve...and scattered storms over the
mountains each day from noon Onward. Temperatures will cool back to near
seasonal with the added moisture and daily cloud development.

Next weekend looks interesting as the upper ridge slides south and
allows a more southwest flow pattern to squeeze in from the west
as a West Coast trough presses eastward. In this flow will be more
moisture and possible shortwaves...both of which should add to
storm/rain chances. Finally...the models indicate a tropical
system to be drawn northward in the southwest flow of the eastern
Pacific. This feature looks to pump significant moisture increases
into the region...and may also track in with added dynamics for
storm development. A bit far out to have good confidence in this
scenario...but we will be watching it.

14-bird

&&

Aviation...valid 31/00z-01/00z.
Dry air aloft will limit convective potential over most of the area
this afternoon and evening...with just an outside chance for a stray
shallow shower or thunderstorm at elp and lru...and slightly
better chances at tcs/dmn.

Thunderstorm coverage will be higher closer to the Arizona border.
Elsewhere expect light winds and VFR conditions to prevail. Thunderstorms and rain
chances will increase slowly early next week as upper level moisture
plume slowly drifts east.

25-hardiman

&&

Fire weather... drier air aloft has been limiting thunderstorm
development mainly to the higher elevations of the Gila region and
lowland areas west of the Continental Divide...with just some
shallow cumulus over the Sacramento Mountains. A stray late
afternoon thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out in the
sacramentos...but anything that develops will be isolated and
short-lived.

The subtropical ridge will shift east but weaken early next
week...with moisture working back in from the west very slowly
and increasing precipitation coverage from west to east each day through
at least midweek. Weak steering flow aloft will lead to localized
heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be near seasonal with overall relative humidity
values slowly increasing through the week as precipitation expands.

25-hardiman

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 68 96 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 64 96 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 64 95 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 65 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 10
Cloudcroft 48 73 50 74 / 0 20 10 30
Truth or Consequences 64 92 65 91 / 20 20 20 30
Silver City 62 86 63 86 / 30 40 40 40
Deming 63 94 65 95 / 20 20 20 20
Lordsburg 62 94 64 93 / 20 30 30 20
west El Paso metropolitan 68 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 63 98 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 65 98 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 65 93 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 64 98 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 67 95 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 66 96 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 64 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 64 96 64 95 / 0 20 0 20
Columbus 64 95 65 95 / 10 0 10 20
Orogrande 66 96 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 53 81 56 82 / 0 20 10 30
Mescalero 53 82 56 83 / 0 20 10 30
Timberon 55 81 57 82 / 0 20 10 30
Winston 54 83 58 82 / 30 50 30 50
Hillsboro 61 91 65 91 / 20 40 20 40
spaceport 64 94 65 93 / 0 20 0 20
Lake Roberts 51 85 54 85 / 30 50 40 50
Hurley 62 88 63 88 / 20 30 40 30
cliff 56 90 56 90 / 20 30 40 20
Mule Creek 54 88 56 88 / 20 40 30 20
Faywood 61 90 64 89 / 20 30 30 30
Animas 64 93 64 92 / 20 30 30 30
Hachita 62 93 63 93 / 20 20 30 20
Antelope Wells 61 90 62 89 / 20 30 30 30
Cloverdale 60 87 64 86 / 20 30 30 30

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

14/25

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