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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
318 am MDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

Synopsis...
Tuesday weather across the Borderland will be a lot like
yesterday's weather with near seasonal temperatures...plenty of
sunshine...and southwest winds not quite breezy. The air will be
a bit drier and more stable under weak ridging aloft meaning less
clouds and chances for any light shower activity this afternoon.
Heading into middle week and beyond a Pacific storm system will
slowly approach and pass through. Rain chances remain slim but
winds will be on the increase each day Wednesday through Friday.
Some locations will likely see some rain late Thursday into Friday
as the system passes. Those will also be the windiest days for the
region. The weekend ahead looks seasonal and dry with moderate
winds.

&&

Discussion...
a weak upper ridge of high pressure hangs over southern New
Mexico/far West Texas this morning. Through the day it will slide
east a bit and allow slight gradient tightening aloft as a more
uniform SW flow begins to move in from the west. This brings drier
air over the forecast area and it is evident in the water vapor
satellite imagery. The results will be slightly gustier afternoon
conditions with an addition of a few mphs to the sustained PM wind
speeds...and less cloud and chance for any buildups or showers.
Only areas in the vicinity of the Sacramento Mountains look to
have any potential for any convective precipitation activity this
afternoon. Thus have 10% probability of precipitation with slight chance wording for only
the SAC zones today. All others are dry until Thursday.

Wednesday the trend toward higher wind speeds continue as a
Pacific trough continues to deepen inch eastward. This induces
surface cyclogenesis over the Southern Plains. Mostly clear skies
and warm surface temperatures will make for good mixdown. This is the
recipe for a dry...seasonal...and breezy afternoon.

Thursday the Pacific low pressure system makes a strong push
eastward and gains a lot of ground toward the region. Friday the
low passes to our north. It seems this system should bring better
moisture than the models suggest. But they appear to dry-slot our
County warning forecast area with better moisture passing both north and south. For US
forecasts show an increase of moisture to only 0.5" of precipitable water. The bigger
deal should be winds for both days with windy days expected.
Previous runs of the GFS have swayed back and forth on wind speeds
for Thursday afternoon...but current numbers suggest possible Wind Advisory
speeds of 30+ miles per hour. Thursday afternoon also brings the potential
for showers and storms...generally west over the bootheel and
Gila. Then possibly all zones in the evening and overnight into
Friday. For now going conservative with the probability of precipitation and keeping most
of The Lowlands without the mention of precipitation. The system's movement
stays progressive so it passes in short order with the precipitation
window from Thursday afternoon to Friday mid-day.

Saturday and Sunday weak ridging moves in and shifts east
according to the GFS. The European model (ecmwf) plays it different with a dry
Saturday and a fast passing upper trough Sunday for precipitation
potential. For now dry and seasonal conditions expected.
Afternoons mildly breezy both days. Both models look to start the
next week dry with West Coast ridging building.

&&

Aviation...valid 21/12z-22/12z...
VFR conditions to prevail vcty all terminals through period. Weak
ridging and drier air should mean fewer low/middle clouds with only a
very isolated chance at any weak shower or virga. Any precipitation or
buildups should be east of tcs and over the sacs. Generally sunny
with few080 sct150. Winds 24008-12kts.

&&

Fire weather...
today weak ridging will mean drier and more stable conditions with
much lesser chances for any buildups or weak showers. Temperatures
will run near normals...and winds will stay below breezy levels
out of the southwest. A developing trough off the California
coast will slowly move eastward later this week...bringing
increasingly breezy southwest winds to the area beginning
Wednesday. Thursday and Friday look to be the windiest days...but an
increase in upper level moisture will result in a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms and will boost relative humidity values right to the
cusp of red flag criteria. Temperatures will be near normal
(around 80 for the lowlands) with a slight cool- down Friday.
Near-normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail heading
into the weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 82 56 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 78 51 78 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 79 48 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 79 50 78 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 59 38 58 39 57 / 20 0 0 0 20
Truth or Consequences 78 48 77 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Silver City 71 42 70 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
Deming 79 45 78 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 78 43 77 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 10
west El Paso metropolitan 81 57 80 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dell City 82 52 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 82 53 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 75 53 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fabens 82 52 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 80 51 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 79 54 78 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 79 44 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hatch 79 46 79 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 78 50 77 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 78 52 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 68 43 67 44 66 / 10 0 0 0 10
Mescalero 67 41 66 42 65 / 10 0 0 0 10
Timberon 67 42 66 43 64 / 10 0 0 0 10
Winston 71 38 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
Hillsboro 76 44 75 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
spaceport 79 45 78 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 70 38 68 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Hurley 73 41 72 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 10
cliff 77 40 76 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 10
Mule Creek 74 35 73 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
Faywood 73 42 72 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 10
Animas 78 46 78 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 10
Hachita 78 45 78 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
Antelope Wells 77 46 77 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cloverdale 73 44 73 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

14-bird

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