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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
241 PM MDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Synopsis...
high pressure aloft will bring seasonably warm and drier weather
to southern New Mexico and West Texas Friday through the weekend
with most thunderstorm activity occurring around higher mountain
regions. Moist unstable air will flow back into the Borderland
later next week resulting in a few showers and thunderstorms
across most of the area.

&&

Discussion...
after a very wet morning high pressure aloft is slowly building
westward into the southern Rocky Mountains this afternoon and
should continue to do so into the weekend. Currently rather moist
unstable remains over New Mexico and West Texas as dewpoints are
in the 60s...precipitable water around 1.3 inches and early
afternoon MUCAPES 1000 to 2000 j/kg. Thus a few areas of deep
convection still expected later this afternoon and tonight. Given
the abundant moisture and slow storm movement vectors...locally
heavy rains sill remain a threat while rather high convective available potential energy values
indicate several storms may produce hail and strong downdrafts.
Ridge aloft building over the County Warning Area may keep coverage in the
isolated to scattered category most areas as water vapor images
showing dry air aloft spreading east to west suggesting larger
scale subsidence.

Upper high center will become located over New Mexico most of the
weekend with associated subsidence and warming aloft stabilizing
air mass most locations. Thus warm mostly dry weather is
forecasted Friday through Sunday afternoon with most storms
forming over or around higher terrain north of Las Cruces and
west of Deming.

By late Sunday afternoon however combination of Summer desert heat
low over western Arizona and high pressure to the north will
generate 10 to 20 miles per hour south to southeast winds at 850 mb with
inflow of Gulf of Mexico moisture sustaining surface dewpoints in
the 50s. This will support precipitable water abound 1.1 inches
with air mass becoming more unstable with MUCAPES around 500 to
1000 j/kg. Finally weak surface trough will become located through
the County Warning Area resulting in weak low level convergence. Thus convection
will become more widespread beginning Sunday night and continuing
through next Thursday with isolated to scattered activity across
The Lowlands and at least scattered coverage mountains.

&&

Aviation...valid 31/00z-01/00z.
Stable airmass in the wake of overnight/early am convection will
limit T-storm potential in The Lowlands...including elp lru and dmn.
Scattered convection expected in the sacramentos down into Hudspeth
County Texas...as well as the higher terrain of the Gila and bootheel
regions this evening. Drier air aloft will bring a downtick in
convection outside the high terrain heading into the weekend. Expect
light southeast to S flow away from thunderstorms...with VFR conditions
prevailing. T-storms will produce brief IFR conditions and gusts to
around 40 kts.

&&

Fire weather... overnight and early morning thunderstorms have
stabilized the atmosphere in an area focused on the Rio Grande
Valley...with thunderstorm activity lagging behind and so far
contained to Otero County. Expect storms to mainly focus on
Otero/Hudspeth...Grant and Hidalgo counties this afternoon and
evening...with very isolated activity elsewhere.

Drier air aloft over central Texas will be pulled into the area
as the subtropical ridge repositions itself to the north. This
will limit thunderstorm development to mainly the high terrain
and far SW New Mexico lowlands over the next several days.
Generally light south to southeast flow will persist...with
temperatures increasing to a few degrees above normal...and min
relative humidity values in The Lowlands dropping to around 20 percent over the
weekend.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 73 97 75 98 / 20 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 69 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 69 95 69 97 / 20 0 0 0
Alamogordo 66 94 68 97 / 30 10 10 20
Cloudcroft 48 71 51 73 / 40 40 40 30
Truth or Consequences 68 92 70 95 / 30 20 20 10
Silver City 64 87 65 88 / 40 50 50 20
Deming 69 94 70 96 / 30 10 10 0
Lordsburg 67 94 69 96 / 30 20 20 20
west El Paso metropolitan 72 97 74 98 / 20 0 0 0
Dell City 68 96 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 71 98 74 98 / 10 0 0 0
Loma Linda 71 93 71 95 / 20 0 0 0
Fabens 70 98 73 98 / 20 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 70 96 72 97 / 20 0 0 0
White Sands hq 69 95 70 97 / 20 0 0 0
Jornada range 67 94 69 97 / 20 0 0 0
Hatch 67 94 69 97 / 20 0 0 0
Columbus 70 94 71 97 / 30 10 10 0
Orogrande 70 95 71 97 / 20 0 0 0
Mayhill 55 81 57 82 / 40 40 40 30
Mescalero 54 81 56 83 / 40 40 40 30
Timberon 55 81 58 82 / 40 40 40 30
Winston 59 84 59 86 / 40 50 50 30
Hillsboro 65 92 67 95 / 30 30 30 20
spaceport 67 92 69 96 / 20 10 10 0
Lake Roberts 58 85 59 87 / 50 50 50 30
Hurley 65 89 66 93 / 30 40 40 20
cliff 60 92 61 93 / 40 40 40 30
Mule Creek 59 91 60 93 / 40 40 40 30
Faywood 66 89 67 93 / 30 30 30 10
Animas 67 94 69 96 / 40 20 20 20
Hachita 68 93 68 97 / 30 20 20 10
Antelope Wells 66 90 67 94 / 30 20 20 10
Cloverdale 67 89 68 92 / 30 20 20 20

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

05 rogash/25 hardiman

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