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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
211 PM MST Monday Feb 8 2016

Synopsis...
a ridge of high pressure will control our weather for the rest of
week. The result will be generally light winds...mostly clear
skies...and warmer than normal temperatures. Clouds may begin to
increase by late in the upcoming weekend but precipitation will
not be an issue until after the weekend.

&&

Discussion...
a highly amplified pattern is in place across the Continental U.S. This
afternoon featuring a strong ridge over the west and a deep
trough in the east. Fortunately we are being influenced more by
the ridge and that will remain the case for the next several days
as it begins to migrate our direction. High clouds near the
international border today are a result of a weak low over
northern Mexico. This feature will remain well south of US
allowing mostly sunny skies and warmer than normal temperatures to
continue with readings climbing from seasonal norms today to as
much as 6 to 9 degrees above normal by the weekend. A couple of
weak back door fronts will approach as the week progresses but
will not be able to really impact the area with much more than
occasional wind shifts.

Long range models do start to diverge by the time the weekend
arrives. However this will not present any real changes to our
sensible weather other than affecting the extent of increasing
clouds for late in the weekend and early next week. Each one hints
at a another back door cold front for Monday...but the big
difference comes into play as the GFS forms a cutoff low west of
the Southern California coast by Sunday and then brings this
feature inland with increasing precipitation chances for early next week.
Meanwhile the emcwf keeps weak ridging over our region and hence
is the drier solution. This all occurs just beyond The Reach of
this forecast package but will need to be monitored by future
shifts.

&&

Aviation...valid 09/00z-10/00z...
p6sm sky clear-few250 through period with lt east to southeast winds under 10kts.

&&

Fire weather...
warming trend will continue across the region as upper ridge
moves eastward across The Rockies. Highs over The Lowlands will be
into the 70s for many lowland locations. Dew points will remain
low...so relative humidities will be on the decrease with teens
and even some single digits expected. Winds will not be much of an
issue through Friday...but may become a bit breezy Saturday. No
precipitation is expected through the period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 37 66 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 29 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 31 64 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 33 64 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 26 48 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 33 64 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 33 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 32 65 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 29 66 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 37 66 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 25 65 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 32 67 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 35 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 32 67 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 32 65 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 36 65 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 26 65 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 31 66 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 33 65 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 36 65 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 32 59 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 27 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 32 55 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 29 60 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 30 64 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 30 65 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 23 62 23 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 29 62 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 22 67 23 69 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 21 66 23 69 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 30 63 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 31 66 30 71 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 29 66 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 29 65 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 31 65 31 70 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

Laney/grzywacz

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