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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
341 am MDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure followed by westerly winds will bring warm dry
weather to New Mexico and West Texas today through Monday with
temperatures well above normal in the afternoon. An upper level
trough with a cold front will also move across the region on
Monday. This weather system will cause breezy winds on Monday
followed by cooler near normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures will again rise above normal later next week as high
pressure aloft moves across the southern rockies.

&&

Discussion...
rather tranquil zonal progressive weather pattern will prevail
across the western unite3d states into next weekend. Strong north
to south oriented upper ridge axis extends through the County Warning Area early
this morning with slow movement further east expected. By late
afternoon New Mexico and far West Texas will be located between
the ridge over central Texas and approaching trough moving into
the West Coast. Thus flow will become more south to southwesterly
through the low and middle levels as initially weak Lee surface
trough develops along the Front Range on Sunday. Sustained
westerly flow will also continue transport of warm air causing
daytime high temperatures to rise to around 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. Some high level moisture will also advect into the area so
expect some increase in high clouds this weekend.

On Monday upper trough will pass through the Rocky Mountains with
westerly gradients increasing across New Mexico and West
Texas. This will support breezy conditions most areas. After the
trough passes to the east a cold front will drop southward through
the County Warning Area with easterly winds behind the boundary advecting cooler
air. Tuesday high temperatures will consequently cool around 5 to
10 degrees or to near normal. By Thursday another upper ridge will
be moving across the Rocky Mountains with flow subsequently
becoming increasingly zonal ahead of next Pacific trough. This
pattern evolution should cause temperatures to again warm above
normal Thursday through next weekend. GFS actually forecasts
precipitation over portions of the County Warning Area next weekend due to upper wave
passage over low level southeast flow. For now will continue with
dry outlook until models show more consistence with extended
periods.

&&

Aviation...valid 25/12z-26/12z.
VFR conditions with no clouds below 10,000 feet above ground level most locations.
Wind speeds generally less than 10 knots.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure aloft will move over the southern rockies today
followed by westerly winds Sunday and Monday. This pattern will
will bring warm dry weather to New Mexico and West Texas today
through Monday with temperatures well above normal in the
afternoon. Lowest afternoon humidity around 25 to 35 percent today
and Sunday with wind speeds mostly less than 10 miles per hour today
increasing and around 5 to 15 miles per hour on Sunday. An upper level trough
with a cold front will also move across the region on Monday. This
weather system will cause breezy winds on Monday with wind gusts
around 30 miles per hour. Cooler near normal temperatures with lighter winds
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will again rise
above normal later next week as high pressure aloft moves across
the southern rockies.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 83 57 86 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 78 53 84 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 80 52 84 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 80 52 83 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 69 40 70 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 78 53 83 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Silver City 77 51 79 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Deming 81 50 85 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 81 51 84 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 82 58 87 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dell City 80 49 85 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 83 54 88 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 81 54 83 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fabens 84 51 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 81 54 85 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 79 55 83 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 80 45 83 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hatch 79 48 83 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 80 54 84 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 80 55 84 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 75 44 77 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 75 42 78 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Timberon 74 42 76 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Winston 75 46 74 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 78 51 80 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
spaceport 78 48 83 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 76 46 73 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hurley 80 51 81 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
cliff 82 41 82 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 80 38 81 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Faywood 77 51 80 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Animas 83 53 86 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hachita 81 52 85 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 84 52 86 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 85 53 87 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

05 rogash

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