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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
329 PM MST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Synopsis...
tonight will be cold with a hard freeze in store by morning...as
drier air returns to the region. Temperatures will slowly warm
near normal later this weekend...with chances for light showers
and isolated mountain storms in store Saturday afternoon and again
Monday. Highs should climb well above normal by the middle of next
week.

&&

Discussion...
latest water vapor satellite imagery depicts definitive split jet
flow pattern over the western states...with Pacific jet tracking
southeast over the central U.S. And sub tropical jet flowing over
northern Mexico. This outlines a classic Rex block over the West
Coast and Baja California California. High pressure aloft to the north and
upper level low pressure immediately to the south make up this
feature. Variations of this blocking pattern have been observed
near the West Coast for at least the past several months...with
the low eventually ending up as the principle influence in
delivering impactful weather to our area.

This remains the case this weekend...when the subtropical jet
strengthens and draws the low out of the The Block. The low will
migrate northeast over our area this weekend...while weakening
into an open wave. Meanwhile the high that had occupied the
northern side of The Block will temporarily strengthen as a full
latitude ridge. This will serve to reorient flow aloft over the
region with a more northerly component...allowing a second weak
trough to drop south over nm Monday.



Impacts:

Hard freeze tonight.
Remember to protect your four p's. People...pets...pipes and
plants. Very dry air over the region in the wake wake of last
nights front...will mean cold overnight temperatures. The absence
of cloud cover will allow daytime heating to quickly radiate into
space.



Isolated showers/storms Saturday afternoon...mainly over higher
elevations in the Gila region and Sacramento Mountains. Dry
lightning with gusty outflow winds possible. GFS and European model (ecmwf)
solutions are in good agreement with timing and placement of open
wave mentioned expected over the region this weekend. While this
feature will be weak...sufficient lift and dynamic cooling aloft
should exist for isolated showers and maybe a storm or two over
the mountains at at that time. With a very dry antecedent air mass in
place...activity will be high based.



Isolated showers/storms Monday...mainly over higher elevations
again. Dry lightning with gusty outflow winds possible. Popular
model solutions are also in good agreement in carrying a second
weak trough over nm...this time from north to south. Similar
mechanisms supportive of high based convective development will be
in place.



Highs will slowly warm near normal by Sunday...climbing well above
normal by the middle of next weak.

&&

Aviation...valid 06/00z-07/00z...
ceiling and visibility OK...cavu...skc-few040. Winds NE-southeast 3-8kts (lcl west of dmn S of
I-10 southeast 10g20kt until 02z).



&&

Fire weather...
following last nights backdoor cold front passage into our area from
the east...temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees colder today.
A slow warming trend is forecast into this weekend and the first
part of next week. Generally dry weather is on tap for the next
several days but some minor disturbances may bring slight chances
of mainly light showers to the area Saturday night to the Gila
WIlderness and Sacramento Mountains and again around next Tuesday
of next week area wide.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 29 59 35 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 24 53 29 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 26 58 32 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 24 55 30 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 23 42 26 44 30 / 0 0 0 10 0
Truth or Consequences 28 58 34 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Silver City 25 56 29 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
Deming 26 61 32 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 27 60 32 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 31 60 37 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dell City 23 53 28 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 28 59 31 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 25 53 31 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fabens 26 60 32 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 27 59 34 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 28 56 32 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 23 58 27 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hatch 26 60 32 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 30 58 35 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 27 55 32 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 21 45 25 49 30 / 0 0 0 10 0
Mescalero 23 49 26 52 30 / 0 0 0 10 0
Timberon 23 48 28 50 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
Winston 24 53 28 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 27 56 32 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
spaceport 25 60 30 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 21 56 26 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hurley 24 56 28 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
cliff 24 64 28 68 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 20 63 26 65 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
Faywood 26 54 31 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Animas 27 62 32 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hachita 25 59 29 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 26 63 30 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 29 61 33 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

22/20
Tripoli/lance

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