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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
327 PM MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Synopsis...
dry stable air has moved into the area and that will greatly limit
the number of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This dry
stretch will last into the weekend. We will see the return of
moisture and rain chances next week. High temperatures will
continue to run above normal with lowland highs flirting with the
century mark.

&&

Discussion...
upper level high pressure continues to control our weather today.
Not only is the high sweeping in drier air along with its sinking
air motion from above...but the high also brings warmer
temperatures in aloft across the area. The colder temperatures are
Half Way up through the atmosphere (500 mb) the easier
thunderstorms can form and give US some rain. Currently the
temperatures at 500 mb are around -5 degrees celsius...now that
sounds pretty cold to you and ME...but it is blazing hot for a
thunderstorm. So warm temperatures aloft is just another
reason...among many...why we aren't seeing thunderstorms today or
tomorrow for that matter. The upper ridge will not be in any hurry
to move off so we will see more of the same for the weekend. Some
moisture may try and slip in around the edges so we have some
slight chance probability of precipitation in the mountains and out west along the Arizona/nm
border. For the first part of next week the upper ridge will start
a slow migration to the west. The European model (ecmwf) says the ridge will be
west of US by Tuesday but the GFS says it will be more like
Wednesday. For now i'm sticking with the GFS timing...but hoping
for the European model (ecmwf) timing. I've started to inch probability of precipitation a little higher
for Monday and Tuesday as the moisture starts to return to the
area. On Wednesday the GFS is still sticking with the moisture
plume moving back over the area...while at the surface a weak back
door cold front moves into the area. Those two things could make
the middle of next week interesting.

Looking at temperatures...there is a bit of good news here. The
models have backed off a few degrees on their highs for Friday and
the weekend. Right now it looks we will see highs running 5 to 7
degrees above normal which is better than the 7 to 9 degrees above
normal we were looking at a couple of days ago. Lowland
temperatures will still flirt with 100 degrees this weekend...but
it should not go much above that. For the first of next week we
will see temperatures begin a slow cooling trend and may
eventually get back to near normal by next Thursday.

&&

Aviation...valid 25/0000z - 26/0000z...
expect just few-scattered high-based cumulus across most of the area with an
outside chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the higher
terrain of the Gila region or Sacramento Mountains. Essentially the
same can be expected on Friday as a strong subsidence inversion
remains in place. Winds will remain light out of the southeast...
with a few afternoon gusts over 20 knots.

&&

Fire weather...
significant break in the monsoon will continue into tomorrow as
a strong subsidence inversion remains in place...and middle-level
temperatures continue to warm up. Expect just the slightest chance
of an isolated thunderstorm over the higher terrain this evening and
tomorrow.

A surge in low level moisture over Arizona tonight and subsequent
increase in thunderstorm activity to our west tomorrow should result
in some residual moisture working its way into far SW New Mexico by
Saturday. This will be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms to
develop in the Gila region and possibly the bootheel Saturday
afternoon and evening. Expect a very slow increase in thunderstorm
coverage heading into next week...mainly favoring western areas.

In the meantime...minimum relative humidity values will drop into the middle and
upper teens across The Lowlands tomorrow afternoon...and low and
middle 20s over the higher elevations.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 76 99 76 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 74 94 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 71 97 70 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 72 98 71 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 51 77 51 79 52 / 10 10 10 20 20
Truth or Consequences 70 96 69 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
Silver City 63 89 61 92 63 / 10 10 10 20 20
Deming 71 97 70 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 70 96 69 98 71 / 0 10 10 20 10
west El Paso metropolitan 75 99 75 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dell City 67 98 67 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 73 101 73 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 69 91 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fabens 73 100 73 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 72 98 71 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 73 96 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 67 96 66 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hatch 69 97 68 102 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 71 95 70 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 71 99 70 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 61 85 60 86 62 / 10 10 10 20 20
Mescalero 58 87 57 88 59 / 10 10 10 20 20
Timberon 57 85 56 86 58 / 10 10 10 20 20
Winston 63 89 62 90 64 / 10 10 10 20 20
Hillsboro 70 92 68 94 70 / 10 0 0 0 10
spaceport 70 96 69 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 57 91 57 92 59 / 10 10 10 30 20
Hurley 63 91 61 94 63 / 10 0 0 20 10
cliff 61 96 60 97 61 / 20 10 10 30 20
Mule Creek 58 93 56 94 58 / 10 10 10 20 20
Faywood 67 92 65 94 67 / 20 0 0 20 0
Animas 73 97 70 98 71 / 0 10 10 20 10
Hachita 69 96 68 97 70 / 0 0 0 10 0
Antelope Wells 72 97 71 99 73 / 0 10 10 10 10
Cloverdale 65 91 63 93 65 / 0 20 20 20 10

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

Brice/hardiman

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