Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
339 PM MDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Synopsis...
an upper level storm system and increasing moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico will lead to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
this evening...especially in southwestern New Mexico and areas
east of El Paso tonight. More widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected across the region on Saturday. Some storms may
produce small hail and gusty winds. A few isolated thunderstorms
will remain a threat mainly over the higher terrain on Sunday...
but otherwise skies will be partly cloudy with near seasonal
temperatures. Temperatures will continue to rise next week...
peaking on Wednesday as another windy and dry storm system
impacts the area.

&&

Discussion...
surface analysis indicates 40-plus dewpoints which had been nosing
into southern Dona Ana County have since mixed out to the east.
40s currently extend from far northeastern Chihuahua into southeast
Hudspeth County...The Dell valley...and then east of the
Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains. Middle-30s are still nosing up
the Rio Grande Valley roughly as far north as Hatch.

Meanwhile...water vapor satellite imagery shows our upper low
moving into Southern California. A leading shortwave trough and
elongated vorticity maximum stretches from Southeast Arizona through central
Chihuahua...with another vorticity lobe moving into Southeast Arizona and
northeastern Sonora.

Several mesoscale models had high hopes that this first vorticity maximum
would lead to a band of light precipitation...but its pretty much all
virga in the bootheel while a few hundredths have reached the
ground in Cochise County Arizona. This has helped boost dewpoints in
the area into the middle-30s and low 40s...and heavier showers and
thunderstorms have been developing over the past hour in
northeastern Sonora ahead of the 2nd vorticity maximum.

We could still see some action from the lead shortwave as positive vorticity advection
begins to increase over the far eastern part of the County Warning Area where the
40s dewpoints are lurking. But so far just a few baby cumulus are
popping up over the Davis Mountains and Sierra Vieja. Several
mesoscale models had been trying to develop convection in/around
El Paso between 23-01z...but this is beginning to look fairly
unlikely.

Otherwise...expect isolated showers/thunderstorms in southwestern
New Mexico and then southeast Hudspeth County this evening with more
widespread showers and isolated thunder moving into Hudspeth/Otero
counties from the southwest later this evening...possibly clipping
El Paso County.

Saturday looks to be the more active day area-wide and deep/moist
southwest flow with several embedded disturbances affecting the
area. Weak instability...generally 250-500 j/kg cape and Li -1 to
-3c will encompass pretty much the whole area. With no real
distinct main focusing mechanism...it is difficult to favor any
particular part of the County Warning Area or give better timing other than middle-
morning to early evening. Precipitation will continue to favor higher
terrain areas like the sacs/Gila region and eastern El
Paso/Hudspeth County...the latter being closer to higher dewpoints
which will advect into the area overnight.

Moderate deep-layer shear will favor semi-organized multicell
storms... with a marginal hail threat in stronger storms...and
gusty winds especially in The Lowlands. Strong microburst
potential will be mitigated somewhat by decreasing low-level
dewpoint depressions.

Rainfall amounts will generally be 0.20 to 0.75 inches with
typical convective variations...but overall higher amounts in the
sacs/Gila region and Hudspeth County...and the lowest amounts in
The Lowlands of SW New Mexico. Localized flooding not entirely
impossible but highly isolated where heavier storms may tend to
train.

The upper low will open up and weaken as it begins to shift east
of the area Sunday afternoon. However...cooler temperatures aloft and
steep lapse rates...along with leftover low-level moisture from
rainfall... will lead to isolated showers/thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon mainly favoring areas north of I-10 and the higher
terrain.

Upper level ridge will try and build in Monday but will be topped
by a weak upper disturbance. With low level dewpoints remaining in
the low/mid-30s... a few isolated afternoon showers over the high
terrain will remain a possibility Monday and even Tuesday.

On Wednesday a deep Pacific trough will move into the northern and
central rockies. Wednesday afternoon will be a typical windy
Spring day with possible blowing dust depending on the impacts of
any rainfall the next couple days. Advisory criteria looks
possible but not a slam-dunk. Temperatures may flirt with 90 in The
Lowlands as well.

Cooler but still-seasonal temperatures will move in for Thursday
with dry weather and relatively light winds prevailing through
Saturday... perhaps becoming windy again thereafter.

&&

Aviation...valid 19/00z-20/00z...
mostly VFR through the period...but isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
cause areas of MVFR and IFR conditions this evening and Saturday.
General conditions through Saturday afternoon p6sm few-sct040-060
scattered-bkn080-120 broken-ovc200-250 with isolated-scattered thunderstorms. MVFR to IFR
conditions...strong winds...and hail are likely near any thunderstorms.



&&

Fire weather...
southwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper level trough is
bringing middle and high level moisture to the region. At the same
time...east to southeast surface winds will continue to import low
low level moisture tonight and Saturday. The increased moisture
combined with unstable air ahead of the approaching trough will
bring the chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the area tonight through Saturday night...and possibly over
the Gila region and the Sacramento Mountains Sunday. High pressure aloft
and the return of westerly low level winds will begin to scour out
the moisture Sunday...with warm and dry weather returning for the
first half of next week. Minimum humidity in the 20 to 30 percent
range Saturday...then down to the teens and 20s Sunday. Ventilation
rates good or better Saturday and Sunday with very low (2 or 3)
Haines indices.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 59 76 55 79 59 / 40 50 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 50 74 51 76 52 / 60 60 20 0 0
Las Cruces 56 74 50 77 54 / 30 40 20 10 0
Alamogordo 52 74 48 77 52 / 30 40 30 10 0
Cloudcroft 39 55 39 53 38 / 40 70 30 30 20
Truth or Consequences 52 73 50 76 51 / 20 40 30 10 0
Silver City 46 68 46 71 47 / 30 40 20 20 10
Deming 50 75 45 78 48 / 20 40 10 10 0
Lordsburg 48 74 46 77 50 / 20 30 10 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 61 76 57 79 60 / 40 50 10 0 0
Dell City 52 72 45 77 46 / 50 60 20 10 0
Fort Hancock 57 81 59 83 59 / 60 60 20 0 0
Loma Linda 48 68 48 72 52 / 50 60 20 0 0
Fabens 54 78 51 79 55 / 50 50 10 0 0
Santa Teresa 57 75 53 78 56 / 30 40 10 0 0
White Sands hq 59 72 57 76 61 / 30 40 20 10 0
Jornada range 45 73 42 76 45 / 30 40 20 10 0
Hatch 49 73 47 76 49 / 20 40 20 10 0
Columbus 58 74 55 76 55 / 30 40 10 0 0
Orogrande 51 75 49 80 52 / 30 40 20 10 0
Mayhill 43 60 42 63 44 / 50 70 30 30 20
Mescalero 41 63 42 65 37 / 40 60 30 30 20
Timberon 40 60 41 63 37 / 40 60 30 20 10
Winston 46 65 46 69 46 / 30 50 30 20 10
Hillsboro 52 68 51 71 55 / 30 40 30 20 0
spaceport 49 71 44 74 51 / 20 40 30 10 0
Lake Roberts 43 66 40 69 40 / 40 50 30 30 20
Hurley 45 69 46 71 47 / 30 40 20 20 0
cliff 43 75 42 76 43 / 30 40 20 20 10
Mule Creek 36 71 36 74 33 / 30 50 20 20 10
Faywood 48 68 46 71 49 / 30 40 20 20 0
Animas 51 76 49 78 54 / 30 40 10 0 0
Hachita 50 74 47 77 49 / 30 40 10 0 0
Antelope Wells 51 77 49 80 54 / 30 30 10 0 0
Cloverdale 46 73 44 76 47 / 30 40 10 10 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

25-hardiman / 21-park