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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
250 PM MDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015

Synopsis...
isolated high based showers and thunderstorms are possible later
this afternoon and early this evening...as low pressure moves
eastward near to our south over northern Mexico. Drier weather
with breezy to windy conditions return Wednesday...with above
normal temperatures to continue. Windy all areas Thursday...with
light blowing dust possible. A little cool down will follow
Friday and Saturday...with temperatures falling near normal for
this time of year.

&&

Discussion...
latest water vapor imagery depicts the tight circulation
associated with the well advertised upper level low moving east
over northern Mexico. A compact but well defined area of middle and
upper cloud development is over NE Sonora/northwest Chihuahua. This has
manifested itself as a thinning cirrus shield over the
southeastern half of our County warning forecast area.

Meanwhile...drier west-northwesterly flow aloft begins to press
into Grant and Sierra counties with sf dewpoints falling to the
upper teens in these areas. This currently allows for only high
based convection...with metsat imagery depicting limited growth at
this time. Web cams confirm the high bases to the cells. Relatively
higher dewpoints to the middle 30s are noted further south and
east. Activity moving off the Gila region is expected to
propagate southeast over the higher dew points. This may result in
a broken line of convection moving into El Paso and Hudspeth
counties over the next few hours.

Dry pattern returns Wednesday and Thursday...with a fast zonal
flow temporarily overspreading our region and southern states. This
is in response to a weak Pacific trough moving over the central
rockies. Feature will send a weak cool front down from the north
Thursday evening...leaving temperatures near normal Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures should climb back above normal by Sunday...as
broad southwest flow returns to the region.

Impacts: downburst wind gusts to 50 miles per hour with locally dense blowing
dust though early this evening.
Marginal instability over southern nm and far West Texas asscd with
proximity of the low...over dewpoints to the 30s...supports
isolated convection in these areas at this time. Dry antecedent
conditions are making it difficult for significant rainfall to
reach the ground. Virga already noted around the office and area
webcams.

Windy in some areas Wednesday...all areas Thursday with Wind
Advisory possible Thursday.
Absence of significant cloud cover both days will favor efficient
mix down from strengthening winds aloft to 600-650mb...while
presence of Lee side trough supports a tight perssure gradient
over the County warning forecast area. 12z NAM and GFS solutions depict slightly more
dense packing of isobars Thursday over southern nm deserts west
of the Rio Grande. Given above factors and trends...this area
stands best chance of realizing advisory level winds Thursday
afternoon.

Highs will cool a degree or two each day through Thursday...but
still remain above normal. Highs will fall near normal Friday and
Saturday...in response to the cool front moving through Thursday
night.

&&

Aviation...valid 01/00z-02/00z...
p6sm sct080-100 scattered-bkn150-200 with isolated -tsra bkn050-070 possible
through 03z. After 03z...few-sct080 sct-bkn200-250...after 12z few100
few-sct250. West to SW winds of 10-15kts will turn more westerly around
10kts toward sunrise and continue to increase to 15-20g30kts after
18z.



&&

Fire weather...
a much more typical weather pattern for this time of the year is
expected over the coming week with breezy to windy conditions common
with low relative humidities and highs in the 80s. Wednesday will
see near critical winds and relative humidities but expect both to
fall short of 3 hour criteria. As an upper trough crosses The
Rockies Thursday...critical conditions are expected to develop and a
Fire Weather Watch is in effect. Less wind is expected on back side
of system for Friday with a back door cold front Friday night which
will cool temperatures about 10 degrees for Saturday. Hot and dry
conditions return Sunday and into early next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 58 84 57 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 51 81 52 83 50 / 10 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 51 83 48 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 51 83 50 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 39 61 39 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 53 81 49 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Silver City 47 75 43 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Deming 50 83 47 83 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 47 81 44 81 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 58 84 57 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dell City 51 84 51 85 48 / 10 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 55 85 54 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 54 80 53 79 50 / 10 0 0 0 0
Fabens 55 84 56 86 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 54 84 52 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 56 82 54 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 47 82 43 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hatch 50 83 47 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 53 83 51 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 54 83 52 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 46 71 46 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 42 71 41 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Timberon 44 70 43 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Winston 43 75 39 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 48 79 45 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
spaceport 47 82 43 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 42 72 39 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hurley 48 77 43 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
cliff 41 80 41 79 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 37 79 33 76 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
Faywood 48 78 44 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Animas 50 82 47 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hachita 48 83 45 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 48 82 45 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 47 79 44 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for nmz110>113.

Texas...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for txz055-056.

&&

$$

22/26

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