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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
233 PM MST sun Nov 23 2014

Synopsis...
the strong upper level disturbance and its associated surface
Pacific cold front which roared into the Borderland today...will
exit tonight with the strong westerly winds decreasing and
becoming more northwesterly to northerly...as colder and drier air
starts to infiltrate into the area from the north. Temperatures
will drop some 10 to 15 degrees colder over the area on Monday and
Tuesday compared to Sunday. High pressure aloft to our west will
start to move eastward Wednesday into the latter part of the week
with temperatures rising back to around normal to above normal by
Thanksgiving day into the weekend.




&&

Discussion...
a fairly strong upper level trough and its Pacific cold front continues
to push its way unimpeded through the area and should be out of the
State of New Mexico by midnight. Hence upper level and surface
winds will veer and decrease as cold air advection begins to filter
southward into southern New Mexico. This air is also very dry and
will push our dew points into single digits for Monday and Tuesday.
Another shortwave trough aloft will dig down in the strong northwest
flow aloft over The Rockies later Monday into Tuesday which will
bring more cold air advection into our County Warning Area and further deepen the
upper trough over the Midwest U.S. Which in turn will intensify
the ridge aloft along the West Coast of the U.S. The net result
will be a 10 to 15 degree f cool down of daytime temperatures for our area.

We continue to remain in a fairly fast and progressive 5 to 6
wave pattern over the northern hemisphere with the polar front jet
very active particularly north of 35 degrees north latitude. Thus our
ridge to the west will start to slowly progress eastward after
midweek with another dry short wave to move southeastward around
Thanksgiving flattening the ridge and suppressing it southward
some but the net result will still bring US warmer and continued
dry weather into the weekend.

The only potential weather maker we see at this time is a moderate
to strong trough moving into the County Warning Area from the west around December
3. The GFS is slower and more robust with precipitations with
this sytem while the Euro is less intense in amplitude and brings
it across as a minor dry shortwave trough Dec 2.

&&

Aviation...valid 24/00z-25/00z...
strong west to northwest winds will continue to affect the area this
afternoon...diminishing shortly after sunset. Expect wind gusts of
35 to 45 knots...highest east of area mountain ranges. A cold front
will push through the area this evening...causing winds to veer more
to the north and northwest as they diminish. Skies will generally be
skc-sct300...with a few middle-Level Mountain wave clouds as well.
Expect lighter winds and VFR conditions tomorrow.

&&

Fire weather...
strong west to northwest winds have affected a wider area of The
Lowlands than expected...but relative humidity values remain above 15 percent...
and outside of red flag criteria. Expect winds to diminish after
sunset and shift more to the northwest and north as a cold front
moves through the area.

This front will bring much cooler and very dry conditions to the
area for the first half of the week ahead. Temperatures will run about 10
degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday...and dewpoints will drop
into the single digits...yielding min relative humidity values around 10 percent.
Also expect some frigid nights ahead. Temperatures will moderate
back to slightly above normal by the Thanksgiving Holiday...with
dry conditions prevailing.

&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 34 55 30 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 31 53 27 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 28 54 26 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 28 49 25 48 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 18 36 14 35 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 28 51 26 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
Silver City 29 48 24 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
Deming 26 54 25 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 25 54 22 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 34 53 29 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dell City 30 54 26 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 33 57 28 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 34 48 29 46 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fabens 30 55 26 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 30 54 27 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 32 51 29 49 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 20 52 23 50 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hatch 23 53 26 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 30 55 28 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 29 51 27 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 23 44 17 43 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 21 42 17 41 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
Timberon 23 43 19 41 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
Winston 21 46 21 46 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 31 50 27 48 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
spaceport 24 53 22 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 21 47 21 48 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hurley 27 50 23 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
cliff 17 53 19 50 22 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 16 51 15 48 18 / 0 0 0 0 0
Faywood 30 49 27 47 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
Animas 27 56 24 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hachita 26 56 23 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 28 58 25 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 30 57 27 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for nmz402-403-407>417.

Texas...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for txz418>424.

&&

$$

20/25 novlan / hardiman

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