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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
257 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Synopsis...
the Borderland is certain to get more rain...and a lot of
it...tonight through Thursday evening as the remnants of former
Hurricane Odile slowly tracks across the southwestern U.S.
Wednesday and Thursday. Very deep tropical moisture and
instability associated with the storm will bring widespread and
numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms to the region. Flash
flooding...some of it serious is expected...and the area is under
a Flash Flood Watch through Thursday night. With the copious rain
and clouds...temperatures continue to run below normal through
the end of the week. Drier conditions will return later in the day
Friday as the system exits the region...however residual moisture
will hang back and keep the potential for showers and thunderstorm
in play across the area through the weekend and into next week.

&&

Discussion...
plenty of weather features to watch for the next 72 hours. Former
Hurricane Odile continues to slowly track north in the Gulf of
California just off the Baja California. We sit in a deep and very moist
southerly flow pattern on the storms wet east side. Precipitable waters are over
1.65" with a maximum of near 1 3/4" expected over the area tonight
through midday Thursday. This puts our area just below the record
levels for middle-September precipitable water. The storm itself will continue it's
track north and a little east toward southern Arizona...just SW of
Tucson, Arizona. The center is proged to cross into the U.S. Late Wednesday
evening...and track over the Gila and into central nm on Thursday.
This is the set up for the anticipated weather the next 72 hours.

This afternoon we see convective storm development to our south
over northern Chihuahua in the region with better sunshine. The
storm motion is to the north so we anticipated an increase in
storm and shower activity this evening and tonight from the south.
Aiding this development is another spoke of energy and deep
moisture surge with another Odile band. This spoke will likely
move over the County warning forecast area in the late evening and overnight hours before
sunrise. Overall rainfall rates of .3 to .75" per hour is expected
but the thunderstorm cells will be capable of 2x to 3x those
rates...and will likely cause flooding issues tonight.

Like we did today...we might see a break in the widespread rain
during the daytime hours on Wednesday. However in the middle
afternoon hours and more so as we go into the overnight hours we
are looking at the potential for a significant increase in rain
activity starting over western zones in the bootheel and Gila as
Odile begins to near the region from the west. Overnight towards
Thursday morning we should see this area of widespread heavy rain
move east across the northern zones. We have continued the trend
of increase both the chances of precipitation and the amount of
precipitation expected. Thus probability of precipitation in the 80-100% probability are
common and storm total precipitation amounts are in the 1-3" range
east...2-4" central...3-5" western lowlands...4-6" area mountains.
There will be great variability in the precipitation amount across the
region and greater amounts up to 8-9" over local areas will be
possible. Those greater amounts will likely be over areas mountains
needless to say we continue the Flash Flood Watch...and extend it
through Thursday night at midnight. Of special note will be the
potential for river and stream flooding across the region.

Friday the system will be to our north and will begin tracking
east out of the southern rockies into the Central Plains. We
should see diminishing rain coverage from west to east during the
day. Drier air in westerly air behind the system will move over
the region late Friday and through the weekend. We won't totally dry
out the airmass so we'll keep chances for isolated lowland and
scattered mountain showers and storms over the area through the
weekend.

Next week we will be watching yet another tropical system
attempting to crawl up the Baja California...much like Norbert did. It could
give US another period of increased moisture and rain chances for
next week.

14-bird

&&

Aviation...valid 17/00z - 18/00z...
an impulse rotating slowly up around tropical the eastern side of
storm Odile...will bring more cloudy skies with another round of
scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms to southern nm /
West Texas through 18z Wednesday. Skies will become partly to mostly
cloudy Wednesday afternoon. Look for lowland clouds scattered 010-020 broken-overcast
ceilings to 030-050 above ground level...with scattered visible to 3 sm in -shra/rain showers and thunderstorms and rain.
Ceilings to 005 near mountains over lowlands. Look for LIFR Broken Mountain
obscurations through period. Expect generally light turbulence outside
storms. Winds will be from east-northeast-southeast around 06-09 kts.

22-Tripoli

&&

Fire weather...
models are now in much better agreement in foreasting track of now
Tropical Storm Odile over Arizona Wednesday and Thursday. Feature
will bring an extended period of very wet weather to New Mexico and
West Texas through at least Thursday...as it initially heads North
East into Arizona...then east northeast into western nm. Rainfall
amounts up to 2-5 inches are possible through Wednesday
morning...with up to 9 inches over higher elevations. By Friday
evening another couple of inches of additional rainfall are possible.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all areas until midnight
Friday.

14-Tripoli

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 67 80 68 82 69 / 90 80 100 90 50
Sierra Blanca 63 75 63 78 62 / 60 50 70 90 50
Las Cruces 65 79 65 80 66 / 90 90 100 90 50
Alamogordo 66 80 64 81 65 / 90 90 100 100 80
Cloudcroft 51 58 49 61 49 / 100 90 100 100 100
Truth or Consequences 63 79 64 81 65 / 90 90 100 100 60
Silver City 59 75 60 75 60 / 100 100 100 90 70
Deming 63 80 64 82 64 / 90 100 100 80 50
Lordsburg 64 80 65 80 64 / 100 100 100 70 60
west El Paso metropolitan 67 79 68 82 68 / 90 80 100 90 50
Dell City 65 79 65 82 64 / 60 60 70 100 70
Fort Hancock 64 80 67 84 67 / 60 60 80 90 50
Loma Linda 62 74 62 75 64 / 90 60 90 90 60
Fabens 67 80 66 82 67 / 80 80 100 90 50
Santa Teresa 65 79 66 81 67 / 90 90 100 80 40
White Sands hq 65 77 65 80 66 / 90 80 100 90 60
Jornada range 61 79 62 81 61 / 90 90 100 90 60
Hatch 63 77 64 80 63 / 90 90 100 100 50
Columbus 67 79 65 82 66 / 90 90 100 60 50
Orogrande 66 77 66 79 66 / 90 70 90 100 70
Mayhill 55 67 54 69 55 / 100 90 100 100 100
Mescalero 56 68 55 71 56 / 100 90 100 100 100
Timberon 54 66 52 68 54 / 100 90 100 100 90
Winston 56 71 55 72 58 / 90 100 100 100 70
Hillsboro 60 75 59 75 62 / 90 100 100 100 70
spaceport 62 77 63 80 63 / 90 90 100 100 60
Lake Roberts 56 74 55 75 58 / 100 100 100 100 70
Hurley 61 77 61 77 63 / 100 100 100 80 70
cliff 55 77 54 78 54 / 100 100 100 80 70
Mule Creek 52 76 51 76 53 / 100 100 100 90 70
Faywood 60 76 61 76 63 / 90 100 100 80 70
Animas 65 78 66 82 65 / 100 90 100 60 60
Hachita 61 80 62 82 62 / 100 100 100 60 60
Antelope Wells 61 79 62 83 61 / 100 90 100 60 50
Cloverdale 59 78 59 79 62 / 100 90 100 70 60

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for nmz401>417.

Texas...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for txz418>424.

&&

$$

14/22

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