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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
320 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE BORDERLAND. HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY
OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN TRANSPORT
WARMER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT WE'LL SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WHILE A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE.

FOR TODAY PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVERS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL FROM AN INCH IN THE FAT WEST TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE
EAST SUPPORTING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS CAPES WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 800 TO 1600 J/KG. LIFTING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
THUS GENERATE CONVECTION TODAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHERE GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST. WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW MOVING AND EVEN BACK BUILDING STORMS SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS
WILL CONTINUE. IN ADDITION WIND SHEAR WILL BE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
WITH 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND THE 6 KM LAYER. THIS FLOW WILL
ALSO ADVECT DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS. THUS ISOLATED STORMS MAY
ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURSTS.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDING 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT TRANSPORTING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW RESULTING. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
INFLOW OF DRY AND VERY WARM AIR MASS. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO FALL TO AROUND .5 TO .75 INCH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE POSSIBILITY FORM RECOVERY DUE TO THE WEST
FLOW. SO OUTLOOK AFTER TODAY WILL CALL FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOST ACTIVITY ENDING
BY 03Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL
AFTER 03Z. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE BORDERLAND. HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS  MAY
OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN TRANSPORT
WARMER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT WE'LL SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWEST HUMIDITY TODAY WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40
PERCENT LOWLANDS AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT MOUNTAINS TODAY DECREASING
TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND 15 TO 25 PERCENT
SATURDAY. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  70  92  68  95 /  50  40   0   0   0 
SIERRA BLANCA           85  65  87  66  89 /  40  30  20  10   0 
LAS CRUCES              88  65  91  64  92 /  40  30   0   0   0 
ALAMOGORDO              86  62  91  61  94 /  50  40   0   0   0 
CLOUDCROFT              64  49  66  50  71 /  60  50  20  20   0 
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   87  63  88  64  92 /  40  20   0   0   0 
SILVER CITY             80  60  82  58  87 /  30  20   0   0   0 
DEMING                  88  63  92  64  93 /  30  30   0   0   0 
LORDSBURG               89  63  90  64  93 /  20  20   0   0   0 
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  70  93  68  95 /  50  40   0   0   0 
DELL CITY               91  67  93  65  96 /  50  40  20  10   0 
FORT HANCOCK            90  72  92  71  95 /  40  40  20   0   0 
LOMA LINDA              84  68  86  66  90 /  50  40  10   0   0 
FABENS                  93  70  92  69  95 /  50  40   0   0   0 
SANTA TERESA            88  69  91  68  93 /  50  40   0   0   0 
WHITE SANDS HQ          88  67  90  66  92 /  50  40   0   0   0 
JORNADA RANGE           88  64  89  63  91 /  40  30   0   0   0 
HATCH                   89  64  90  65  93 /  40  30   0   0   0 
COLUMBUS                90  68  90  66  92 /  40  30   0   0   0 
OROGRANDE               88  67  92  66  94 /  50  40   0   0   0 
MAYHILL                 72  56  76  56  80 /  60  40  30  20   0 
MESCALERO               75  55  78  55  82 /  60  50  20  20   0 
TIMBERON                73  56  77  56  81 /  60  50  20  20   0 
WINSTON                 76  56  79  56  83 /  40  30   0   0   0 
HILLSBORO               83  60  86  62  86 /  30  20   0   0   0 
SPACEPORT               86  64  89  64  91 /  40  30   0   0   0 
LAKE ROBERTS            79  56  82  57  85 /  40  30   0   0   0 
HURLEY                  82  61  88  61  89 /  30  20   0   0   0 
CLIFF                   85  59  88  59  91 /  30  20   0   0   0 
MULE CREEK              81  52  83  54  89 /  20  20   0   0   0 
FAYWOOD                 81  59  83  59  86 /  30  30   0   0   0 
ANIMAS                  88  64  90  65  92 /  20  20   0   0   0 
HACHITA                 86  63  91  63  93 /  30  30   0   0   0 
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  61  90  61  91 /  30  30   0   0   0 
CLOVERDALE              82  60  86  61  88 /  20  30   0   0   0 

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.

TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH

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