Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
308 PM MDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Synopsis...
drier west flow aloft will strengthen over the next couple of days
across the Borderland. Some moisture at low levels will
persist...mainly east of El Paso...where the risk of a thunderstorm
will remain through middle week. By Thursday additional moisture will
begin seeping back in as southerly flow aloft increases. For
Thursday through Saturday a chance of thunderstorms will move back
over the entire Borderland. Temperatures will remain well above
normal.
&&
Discussion...
drier west flow aloft gradually moving into the forecast area over
the next day or two. In the short term...WV imagery and NAM model
both show a short wave moving across southern New Mexico. This
feature was enough to kick off convection a bit earlier in the day
than usual. This was able to produce a few strong to severe
thunderstorms over The Lowlands of south central New Mexico...while
apparently suppressing Gila area convection right behind the trough.
The trough is prognosticated to be over far eastern New Mexico early this
evening. Convection this evening should be limited to the area east
of El Paso.
Tuesday and Wednesday...drier hotter weather in store as dry west
flow aloft in place. Will keep a low pop in each day for the far
eastern County Warning Area. Otherwise dry and hot with high temperatures running about 5
to 8 degrees above normal.
Thursday through Sunday...high pressure slowly builds back over the
area...decreasing the dry southwest flow while southerly middle level
flow with moisture increases. This will spread a chance of
thunderstorms back over the entire area. Instability parameters and
column moisture don't look real impressive but strongest storms
would appear to be east of the Rio Grande Valley where veering wind
profile will exist. Temperatures likely down a couple of degrees due
to higher dew points and clouds.
Monday and beyond...upper high centers over area which should cut
back on the convection over the weekend. Thunderstorm chances likely
limited to mountains again.
&&
Aviation...valid 18/00z-19/00z.
Drier air moving from the west will result in isolated mountain/lowland
tsrags and scattered lowland tsrags/wind g50kt/local bldu east of the Rio
Grande through 02z. Look for 250-270/10-15g20kts through 02z west of
the Continental Divide...and again all areas after 18z Tuesday. Light
occasional MDT turbulence surface-080 along and immediately east of area mountains Tuesday
afternoon.
&&
Fire weather...
a drying trend will begin today...as deep westerly flow overspreads
most of the region and western New Mexico. This will confine storm
chances to mainly east of the Rio Grande through at least
Wednesday...with some monsoon driven moisture expected to return
from the south later Thursday. For early tonight...an isolated to
scattered storms will continue over areas generally east of the Rio
Grande Valley. No storms are expected for the Silver fire through
and other areas west of the Tularosa basin through at least
Wednesday and possibly into Thursday. By Friday...monsoon driven
moisture will begin migrating northward over area...for a return to
isolated high based storms.
For Tuesday...the intrusion of drier air from the west will maintain
lower lowland min relative humidity to the high single digits from the Tularosa
basin...west to the Arizona border. Gila region will see min relative humidity to the
low teens. East of the basin..min relative humidity will fall to the middle teens
.With high 20s to 30 expected for higher elevations in the
Sacramento and Capitan Mountains. Similar values are expected
Wednesday. Min relative humidity will climb 4-6 percent across in general
Thursday...and roughly another 10 percent Friday all areas.
The drying trend will result in warmer temperatures this week...with
lowland readings in some locations expected to reach the low 100s by
middle week. The warmer weather will result in Haines indices of 6 for
area mountains...and 4-5 for The Lowlands through at least
Wednesday. Similar conditions expected Thursday. Values expected to
fall to 4-5 again Friday with the additional moisture.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 76 102 77 103 78 / 10 10 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 73 97 72 102 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
Las Cruces 71 100 72 103 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 66 99 69 103 71 / 10 10 10 0 0
Cloudcroft 47 80 50 79 51 / 30 20 20 10 10
Truth or Consequences 71 100 72 103 73 / 10 0 0 10 10
Silver City 62 95 64 96 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
Deming 68 102 68 103 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 66 100 68 102 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 78 100 79 103 80 / 10 10 10 0 0
Dell City 67 95 67 101 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
Fort Hancock 77 103 77 106 78 / 20 10 10 10 10
Loma Linda 68 96 66 97 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
Fabens 75 102 75 104 76 / 10 10 10 0 0
Santa Teresa 73 100 74 102 75 / 10 10 10 0 0
White Sands hq 72 99 73 102 74 / 10 10 10 0 0
Jornada range 65 100 65 102 66 / 10 10 10 0 0
Hatch 70 97 71 99 72 / 10 0 0 0 0
Columbus 72 99 72 103 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 71 102 70 103 72 / 10 10 10 0 0
Mayhill 54 88 57 87 58 / 30 20 20 10 10
Mescalero 50 89 53 89 55 / 20 10 10 10 10
Timberon 51 87 54 86 55 / 20 10 10 10 10
Winston 57 91 58 93 59 / 10 0 0 10 10
Hillsboro 64 95 67 97 68 / 10 0 0 10 10
spaceport 68 94 69 101 70 / 10 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 57 92 60 93 61 / 10 0 0 10 10
Hurley 64 97 65 98 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
cliff 61 97 62 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 50 96 51 99 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Faywood 65 94 66 97 67 / 10 0 0 10 10
Animas 68 100 69 103 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hachita 66 98 67 103 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 67 101 68 104 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 64 96 64 99 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
Hefner/Tripoli
