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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
427 am MST Monday Dec 22 2014

Synopsis...
today we will have mostly sunny skies with temperatures well above
normal...but then tonight a strong cold front will move across the
region and high temperatures on Tuesday will be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal...this will keep most lowland locations in the 40's
for a high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. For Christmas we
will see high temperatures back above normal. Next weekend we will
see continued dry conditions with temperatures a few degrees above
normal.

&&

Discussion...
we will see one more warm day before colder temperatures return to
the area. Currently we sit between an upper level ridge to our
west and an upper level trough to our east. This pattern is giving
US a northwest flow aloft. Usually this pattern is a quiet
one...but for US later tonight we will see a push of colder air
move into the area from the north. While today's highs will run
almost 10 degrees above normal...high temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will run almost 10 degrees below normal. That means most
lowland locations will see highs only in the 40's on both Tuesday
and Wednesday. In addition to the colder air...the front will give
US some strong winds...especially along the eastern slopes of
area mountains. For now I think winds will stay just below
advisory levels but strong gusty winds will be possible late
tonight. Finally...there may be just enough lift to give the
Sacramento Mountains and parts of Hudspeth County a chance for some
light precipitation.

Late on Wednesday the upper level ridge will push across the
region which will help our temperatures to quickly bounce back
above normal for both Christmas day and Friday. Late on Christmas
day a short wave trough will dash across norther New Mexico which
will help give US some breezy winds on Thursday afternoon. For
next weekend there is still some difference in the long range
models. The GFS give US a zonal flow...while the European model (ecmwf) drops a
trough into New Mexico. For now both solutions still give US dry
conditions with temperatures a few degrees above normal.

&&

Aviation...valid 22/12z-23/12z
like yesterday we will see high level ceilings of bkn250 off and
on this morning and afternoon. Surface winds will be from 27010kt
through the early evening hours. Later tonight a cold front will
move across the region which will increase our winds and swing
them around to the north at 34018g28kt with some stronger gusts on
the east slopes of area mountains. Also later tonight we may see
some lower ceilings and light precipitation in the Sacramento
Mountains.



&&

Fire weather...
we will continue to see mainly dry conditions for the next seven
days. Today will be warm with breezy winds...but then tonight a
strong cold front will increase and swing our winds around to the
north. We will see some strong gusty winds on the east slopes of
area mountains during the over night hours. In addition we could
see some light precipitation in the Sacramento Mountains tonight
as the front moves through. On Tuesday and Wednesday we will see
below normal temperatures. Then for Christmas day and Friday we
will see above normal temperatures with some breezy afternoon
winds. Next weekend will continue to be dry with highs running a
few degrees above normal.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 66 41 50 25 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 63 39 47 22 49 / 0 0 10 0 0
Las Cruces 64 38 49 22 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 61 36 46 19 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 47 23 30 10 34 / 0 20 20 0 0
Truth or Consequences 63 38 46 22 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Silver City 59 34 44 21 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Deming 65 36 49 20 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 62 33 50 19 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 66 43 49 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dell City 66 37 49 17 51 / 0 10 20 0 0
Fort Hancock 68 42 51 23 53 / 0 0 10 0 0
Loma Linda 60 39 45 24 46 / 0 0 10 0 0
Fabens 67 39 50 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 65 38 49 22 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 64 41 48 26 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 64 32 49 16 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hatch 66 37 49 21 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 65 41 50 23 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 62 38 47 22 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 56 29 38 14 41 / 0 20 30 0 0
Mescalero 54 27 38 13 40 / 0 20 20 0 0
Timberon 54 29 38 13 39 / 0 20 20 0 0
Winston 57 32 41 17 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 62 36 45 21 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
spaceport 65 33 48 18 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 58 32 42 17 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hurley 61 35 45 19 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
cliff 63 31 49 16 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 60 27 47 12 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Faywood 61 36 45 22 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Animas 65 36 52 21 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hachita 64 33 51 17 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 67 35 51 17 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 64 36 51 20 52 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

Brice

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