Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
344 am MDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Synopsis...
moisture in the area will help develop scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region today through tomorrow night.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with localized flooding along
drainages and arroyos will be possible. Drier conditions will
occur Thursday through the weekend as high pressure aloft
increases over the area and limits thunderstorm development to
mainly mountain locales. Very warm temperatures will occur again
this afternoon...but slightly cooler temperatures will for the
remainder of the week.

&&

Discussion...
a plume of moisture continues to steam up over New Mexico from
the south along the western edge of an area of high pressure
centered over eastern Texas. This moisture will help fuel
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area today through
Wednesday night. Storm development will be aided by weak upper
level disturbances drifting through the area and a weak surface
front that will help focus convective development.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall with localized flooding
will be possible from stronger storms. Rain amounts will be higher
in the mountains...especially the Gila region...with a more spotty
distribution across the lowland deserts the next couple of days.
Storms will also be able to produce small hail and wind gusts up
to 50 miles per hour. Temperatures will be warm again today with afternoon
highs in the upper 90s for much of The Lowlands. Increased cloud
cover will help keep temperatures lower on Wednesday.

The overall weather pattern will become less active and drier on
Thursday through Saturday as the high in Texas recenters over New
Mexico. This will shift the plume further to the west and bring in
a east to southeast flow that will be more stable. Moisture levels
will drop a little in response with precipitable water values
hovering around an inch. Residual moisture will still be able to
generate isolated mountain thunderstorms...aided by mountain
orographics. A few brief isolated lowland storms may occur but
overall conditions should be mostly dry across most The Lowlands
except for the bootheel and Gila regions near the Arizona border
that will be closer to deeper moisture. Temperatures will return
to seasonal values which will place them in the middle 90s for most
lowland areas.

In the extended forecast period...the high is expected to remain
over The Four Corners region and moisture slowly gets entrained
into the circulation. As moisture flows back over the area
isolated lowland and scattered mountain thunderstorms will be
possible Sunday through next Tuesday...mainly in the afternoon and
evenings. Rain amounts will be spotty with a reduced flooding
risk. Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages.

&&

Aviation...valid 28/12z-29/12z...
mostly VFR conditions at all taf sites through 21z with scattered thunderstorms
in the mountains by 18z. After 21z..p6sm few- sct080-100 scattered- bkn200-250
through period. Isolated lowland and scattered mountain 1-3sm thunderstorms and rain bkn040-060 through 08z.
S to SW winds at or below 12kts will be shifting more to the east to southeast east
of Divide between 18z- 00z.

&&

Fire weather...
good moisture remains in place across the region. Isolated to
scattered lowland and scattered mountain storms are again
expected through this tonight with another round of storms
possible for Wednesday. For the remainder of the week...the upper
high will shift to The Four Corners region with drier air
filtering in which will likely set up mostly dry conditions for
The Lowlands and isolated mountain storms in the afternoon and
early evening. Temperatures will fall about 3 to 5 degrees to
near normal for the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 99 74 97 73 / 20 30 30 40
Sierra Blanca 94 70 93 68 / 20 20 20 30
Las Cruces 96 68 94 67 / 20 30 30 40
Alamogordo 96 68 94 66 / 20 30 30 40
Cloudcroft 73 51 71 50 / 60 50 60 40
Truth or Consequences 95 69 92 67 / 20 30 50 50
Silver City 88 63 85 61 / 30 30 60 60
Deming 97 70 94 68 / 20 30 40 50
Lordsburg 96 68 94 67 / 20 30 50 50
west El Paso metropolitan 99 72 96 72 / 20 30 30 40
Dell City 98 71 97 69 / 20 20 20 20
Fort Hancock 98 73 97 72 / 20 30 20 30
Loma Linda 94 68 92 67 / 20 30 20 30
Fabens 99 71 97 72 / 20 30 20 40
Santa Teresa 97 71 96 70 / 20 30 30 40
White Sands hq 97 70 94 68 / 20 30 30 40
Jornada range 96 68 94 66 / 20 30 30 50
Hatch 98 68 95 66 / 20 30 40 50
Columbus 96 70 93 69 / 20 30 40 50
Orogrande 96 70 95 69 / 20 30 30 40
Mayhill 83 57 80 54 / 60 40 70 40
Mescalero 83 56 81 54 / 60 40 60 40
Timberon 83 57 80 55 / 40 40 60 40
Winston 87 59 83 58 / 30 40 60 70
Hillsboro 95 64 91 62 / 20 30 50 50
spaceport 95 68 93 66 / 20 30 50 50
Lake Roberts 88 58 84 56 / 40 40 60 70
Hurley 92 63 88 62 / 20 30 50 50
cliff 93 64 91 61 / 20 30 60 60
Mule Creek 93 61 91 60 / 20 30 60 60
Faywood 92 64 89 62 / 20 30 50 50
Animas 94 68 93 67 / 30 30 50 50
Hachita 94 68 93 67 / 20 30 50 50
Antelope Wells 90 66 89 65 / 40 40 50 60
Cloverdale 89 64 87 63 / 40 50 60 60

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

04 lundeen

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations