Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
508 am MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Synopsis...
upper low over Arizona will continue to spread scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the Borderland today and tonight. Some of these
storms could produce small hail and gusty winds of 40 miles per hour. High
pressure aloft will begin to dry US out starting on Sunday...though
a few mountain showers are still possible. Temperatures will warm to
near normal Sunday and then well above normal for much of the rest
of the week as west flow aloft and near the surface increase.
Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the warmest days...with highs
approaching 90 degrees over The Lowlands. Surface winds will also
increase with windy conditions likely Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

Discussion...
upper low now over SW Arizona with main trough extending from low
down across the southern Baja California. Moisture continues to advect in from
the southwest at middle/high levels while low level southwest flow
brings in some moisture also. Tpw product shows precipitable waters of around .7 -
8 inches...with slightly wetter airmass just to our south. Models
not bringing main trough through until late tonight so continued
destabilization of airmass along with broad scale lift will continue
thunderstorms through tonight. Cluster of thunderstorms moved north
into the bootheel early this morning and has since moved up from
about Deming to Silver City and northward. Radar rainfall estimates
range from about .25-.50 inches in this area. Fortunately storm
movement is relatively fast so not much in the way of flood
potential. Nam12 picked up on this nicely although their qpfs are
overdone. Will keep higher probability of precipitation in the west half this morning and
then more uniform this afternoon. Will have to keep a watch on the
Silver burn area as much of this moisture is moving across that
area. Best guess is that we would need to see about .75+ inches fall
fairly quickly in that area to start worrying about flooding. As for
the storms...latest models showing higher MUCAPE values than earlier
runs...with values of around 500 to 1200 j/kg this afternoon. Still
not much directional shear and with decent middle/upper level wind
speeds...updraft towers may see some difficulty in maintaining. That
said...with wbz at or below 12k feet mean sea level...some hail is likely along
with gusty winds.

Main trough is through the area shortly before daybreak
Sunday...with brief negative vorticity advection/subsidence Sunday morning before weak
impulses move northwest to southeast across the area by Sunday
afternoon. Will keep low probability of precipitation in for the mountain areas due to this.
Temperatures back to near normal. Despite ridging aloft on
Monday...models still showing some weak positive vorticity advection and upward motion. With
decent instability persisting and precipitable waters of around .5 inches...will
keep Low Mountain probability of precipitation in for one more day.

Tuesday and beyond...stronger west winds aloft and at the surface
kick in with strong warming trend. Warmest days should be Tuesday
and Wednesday...while the windiest days look to be Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds will be close to advisory criteria Wednesday.

&&

Aviation...valid 19/12z-20/12z...
genl conds scattered-bkn150 bkn250. Scattered 6sm -tsra bkn100 with a few
1-3sm +tsra ovc080. Thunderstorms most frequent west of Deming this
morning...with coverage becoming more even this afternoon.

&&

Fire weather...
upper low over SW Arizona continues to bring up moisture aloft from
the southwest...while at the surface southeast winds also bring in
some moisture. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue today
and tonight...before dissipating around 06z. High pressure aloft and
the return of westerly low level winds will begin to scour out the
moisture Sunday...though a few mountains showers/tstsm still
possible. The rest of the week looks to remain dry with a warmup.
Temperatures back above normal Wednesday and beyond. Winds will also
increase into windy category Wednesday and Thursday...perhaps
bringing fire conditions back to near critical. Ventilation rates
good or better Saturday and Sunday with very low (2 or 3) Haines
indices.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 77 56 80 58 85 / 50 40 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 75 53 76 52 82 / 60 60 0 0 0
Las Cruces 75 52 77 54 82 / 40 40 10 0 0
Alamogordo 75 50 77 52 82 / 40 40 10 0 0
Cloudcroft 54 41 54 39 62 / 70 60 30 20 10
Truth or Consequences 74 52 76 51 81 / 40 40 10 0 0
Silver City 65 50 70 48 76 / 40 40 20 10 0
Deming 76 47 78 48 83 / 40 40 10 0 0
Lordsburg 75 48 77 50 83 / 30 30 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 77 56 79 59 83 / 50 40 0 0 0
Dell City 73 45 78 45 81 / 60 60 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 82 59 84 58 88 / 60 60 0 0 0
Loma Linda 67 52 71 53 75 / 60 60 0 0 0
Fabens 79 51 80 54 85 / 50 40 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 76 55 78 56 82 / 40 40 0 0 0
White Sands hq 73 59 76 61 81 / 40 40 10 0 0
Jornada range 74 44 76 45 82 / 40 40 10 0 0
Hatch 74 47 76 49 82 / 40 40 10 0 0
Columbus 75 57 76 55 81 / 40 40 0 0 0
Orogrande 76 51 80 52 83 / 40 40 10 0 0
Mayhill 59 45 63 45 68 / 70 60 30 20 10
Mescalero 62 45 65 38 69 / 60 60 30 20 10
Timberon 59 44 63 38 68 / 60 60 30 10 10
Winston 64 45 68 45 73 / 50 50 30 10 0
Hillsboro 67 55 70 56 77 / 40 40 20 0 0
spaceport 72 46 74 51 79 / 40 40 10 0 0
Lake Roberts 65 44 68 41 74 / 50 50 30 20 0
Hurley 68 50 70 48 76 / 40 40 20 0 0
cliff 69 43 71 40 77 / 40 40 20 10 0
Mule Creek 67 40 69 37 76 / 50 40 20 10 0
Faywood 67 50 70 50 75 / 40 40 20 0 0
Animas 76 51 78 54 84 / 30 30 0 0 0
Hachita 75 49 77 49 82 / 30 30 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 78 51 80 54 85 / 30 30 0 0 0
Cloverdale 72 48 75 48 80 / 30 30 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

17/Hefner