Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
230 PM MDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Synopsis...
a passing disturbance...a weak front...and plenty of monsoon
moisture should mean more late afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms across the Borderland. Beginning Saturday bit of
drier air begins to move in from the east. By Sunday areas east of
the Rio Grande should be free of storms...with storms shoved west
of the Rio Grande for Sunday and Monday. Tuesday the moisture
eases back east of the Rio Grande and once again all areas across
the Borderland region will see isolated to scattered afternoon
and evening storms each day through the rest of the week.

&&

Discussion...
moisture remains relatively healthy across far West Texas and
southern New Mexico with precipitable waters of this mornings sounding at 1.18".
That moisture is expected to hold up through Saturday with
continued moderate deep moisture in place. For today the potential
exists for a bit of middle/upper level dynamics for storm
enhancement as a sharp disturbance tracks across the Midwest and
drags a weak upper trough over and possibly pushes a weak surface
front in. This may mean a slight increase in storm development for
areas primarily east of the Rio Grande. However...thanks to
daytime heating destabilizing the airmass...all areas will see
fair chances for storms with generally scattered storms expected
over most zones into the night tonight.

Saturday looks pretty much like today as far as atmospheric
moisture content and instability are concerned...but we do lose
the added dynamics of this afternoon/eve. Thus still area-wide
storms chances once daytime heating overcomes morning
stability...but coverage will likely be down a bit.

Sunday the effects of some persistent NE flow aloft behind
tonight's trough passage will shove the deeper moisture west and
bring some dry air aloft in over the eastern 2/3rds of the
forecast area. For Sunday and Monday the zones east of the
Continental Divide may be rain/storm free due to the drier
air...while the far western zones keep isolate/scattered precipitation/storms those
afternoons/evenings.

For much of this 7-day period the area remains under a slowly
migratory upper high with a persistent West Coast trough to our
west. The moisture looks to want to linger under the high pressure
ridge. For the sun/Monday time-frame the ridge/moisture axis is west
of our region. By Tuesday the ridge shifts back east over our area
with moisture arriving back with it. This appears in response to the
West Coast trough making some ground to the east. For the rest of
the forecast periods the ridge and moisture remain locked over the
region and thus we settle back into a daily routine of isolated to
scattered daytime/evening storms for all areas with a fairly
uniform moist atmosphere favoring no area over any other with the
exception of mountains over lowlands.

Bottom line: near seasonal temperatures through out...but warmer sun and
Monday. Scattered storms tonight and Saturday. Downtick in storms
central and east for sun and Monday. Return to current area-wide
showers and storms Tuesday Onward.

14-bird

&&

Aviation...valid 29/00z-30/00z.
P6sm sct070-090 scattered-bkn150-200 through much of period. Scattered 1-3sm thunderstorms and rain
bkn040-060 with wind gusts to 40kts mainly through 06z...isolated storms
after 18z. Wind shift to the east to southeast is expected between 00z-06z.

26-grzywacz

&&

Fire weather...
a weak boundary will be shifting the winds to the east this evening
and provide enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the Borderland. The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated
by an upper ridge extending from the Desert Southwest into the northern
plains. This feature will keep the best chance for precipitation over
the western zones this weekend. As the ridge slowly shifts eastward...the
chances will spread back into the areas east of the river. Temperatures
will remain near to slightly above normal with minimum relative
humidities in the 20s for The Lowlands and 30s and 40s for the mountains.

26-grzywacz

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 72 93 71 95 / 40 20 10 0
Sierra Blanca 67 91 67 95 / 40 10 10 0
Las Cruces 67 91 66 94 / 40 20 10 0
Alamogordo 67 91 67 95 / 50 20 10 20
Cloudcroft 48 69 46 71 / 50 30 20 20
Truth or Consequences 66 89 66 92 / 30 20 20 20
Silver City 63 83 61 85 / 40 40 30 40
Deming 67 92 66 94 / 30 20 20 20
Lordsburg 67 92 66 94 / 30 30 30 20
west El Paso metropolitan 72 93 71 95 / 40 20 10 0
Dell City 66 93 66 96 / 50 10 10 0
Fort Hancock 69 94 69 97 / 40 20 10 0
Loma Linda 68 89 66 91 / 50 20 10 0
Fabens 69 94 68 96 / 40 20 10 0
Santa Teresa 69 92 69 95 / 40 20 10 0
White Sands hq 68 90 68 95 / 40 20 10 10
Jornada range 67 91 67 95 / 40 20 10 10
Hatch 66 92 65 95 / 30 20 20 10
Columbus 67 93 66 95 / 30 20 20 10
Orogrande 68 91 67 95 / 40 20 10 10
Mayhill 54 77 52 77 / 50 30 20 20
Mescalero 55 79 53 80 / 50 30 20 30
Timberon 56 78 54 79 / 50 30 20 10
Winston 59 81 56 81 / 40 30 30 50
Hillsboro 64 89 63 91 / 40 30 20 40
spaceport 66 90 66 93 / 30 20 10 0
Lake Roberts 56 84 53 83 / 50 40 40 60
Hurley 64 86 62 87 / 40 30 30 30
cliff 60 88 60 89 / 40 30 30 30
Mule Creek 58 87 58 87 / 40 40 40 40
Faywood 65 87 62 89 / 40 30 30 30
Animas 67 92 66 93 / 30 30 30 30
Hachita 66 92 65 93 / 30 20 30 30
Antelope Wells 64 89 63 89 / 30 30 30 50
Cloverdale 66 85 62 85 / 30 40 30 50

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

14/26

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations