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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
233 am MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Synopsis...
the long Labor Day Holiday weekend will be marked by completely
dry and unseasonably warm weather across the Borderland. Expect
plenty of sun and light winds across far West Texas and southern
New Mexico through Tuesday. Temperatures will run 5 to 8 degrees
above normal with lowland temperatures into the upper 90s and
trying to hit 100. By next Wednesday the warm and Dry Ridge over
the region will recede and allow moisture to move back in for
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday on into
the next weekend.

&&

Discussion...
an expanding upper ridge of high pressure just off the S
California coast will build over the southwestern U.S. Deserts
through the weekend. With deep northwesterly and westerly winds
over the region a very dry atmosphere is in place from about 12kft
mean sea level and above. There is still a thin sliver of moisture at middle
levels but it is only good for a flat fair weather cumulus cloud
field with daytime heating. At the surface the air is also quite
dry with dewpoints having fallen into the 30s and 40s. With high
pressure over the region the primary effect will be above normal
heat across the region. Temperatures are expected to run 5 to 8
degrees above normal through the 3-day Labor Day Holiday. Thus
lowlands will see u90s with some locations nearing 100 degree
afternoons. The weather remains pretty constant through at least
Tuesday.

Today there is a shortwave aloft that will drop southeast over the sacs
in the upper flow. Some models want to spill out a bit of precipitation
over the S central mountains this aftn/eve...but moisture content
does not support anything more than some enhanced buildups. Thus
no probability of precipitation in the forecast.

By Wednesday we begin to see some moisture creep back into the
region. First southeast low-level will import some Gulf moisture into the
east and southeast zones of far West Texas and S central nm. By Thursday
morning the Gulf high contracts east enough to bring back some
southerly flow aloft over the west. This allows some moisture to
move in out of Mexico at the middle and upper levels over the western
zones. For now we've focused probability of precipitation over the mountains and the west zones for
Wednesday and then give all zones a shot with slight chance probability of precipitation for
Thursday through the rest of the periods.

High pressure aloft will still be over the region and this may
temper the storm development and coverage through these wetter
periods...but with good surface heating we should be able to
destabilize beyond any capping. With more moisture and clouds we
should bring the temperatures back down to normal.

&&

Aviation...valid 30/12z - 31/12z...
VFR conditions with light and variable winds will prevail through
the period...as dry/subsident air moves in from the west.

&&

Fire weather...
westerly winds aloft will bring in drier air and a solid break in
the monsoon over the next several days. The subtropical ridge will
remain south of the area...keeping any moisture at Bay.
Temperatures will climb to about 5-10 degrees above normal this
weekend and into early next week. Some moisture will work back
into the area late next week as the ridge shifts to the east.

Minimum relative humidity values will remain at or above 15 percent despite the
drying trend...and vent rates will generally remain favorable
through the weekend...

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 96 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 92 66 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 95 67 97 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 94 67 96 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 72 49 75 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 93 67 96 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
Silver City 88 63 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Deming 96 65 98 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 95 64 96 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 96 72 98 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dell City 97 66 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 96 71 98 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 91 68 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
Fabens 96 69 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 96 70 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 96 67 95 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 94 64 96 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hatch 96 64 98 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 95 68 95 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 96 68 96 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 81 56 83 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 83 55 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Timberon 84 56 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Winston 82 57 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 88 61 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
spaceport 92 65 95 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 86 57 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hurley 90 63 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
cliff 92 53 94 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 89 50 90 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
Faywood 88 62 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Animas 92 67 94 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hachita 95 65 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 92 64 94 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 89 65 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

14-bird

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