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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
317 PM MDT Monday Jun 1 2015

Synopsis...
isolated showers and thunderstorm will occur this afternoon and
evening. Rain amounts will vary greatly with most areas getting
light amounts of rainfall. Dry and warm conditions will return to
the area Tuesday through Thursday with afternoon temperatures in
the middle to upper 90s. Moisture will return to the region on Friday
and next weekend with a chance of thunderstorms...mostly for
areas west of the Rio Grande. Temperatures will remain on the warm
side through the weekend.

&&

Discussion...
radar indicates isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
occurring this afternoon. Many of the storms and showers are high
based and not producing that much precipitation. Overall mostly
light amounts of rain are expected through this evening. A few
areas may receive moderate amounts of rain. With freezing levels
being higher...large hail is not a threat at this time...but some
small pea to dime sized hail may occur...mainly over the
mountains. The atmospheric profile is showing an inverted v shape
which indicates a large temperature-dewpoint depression is in
place. This could result in strong thunderstorm outflow winds up
to 50 miles per hour. A little localized blowing dust may also occur in dust
prone areas from the stronger winds.

A westerly flow pattern will begin pushing moisture back to the
east later tonight...ending rain chances for southern New Mexico
and far West Texas Tuesday through Thursday. Winds will become
breezy in the afternoon each day. The flow pattern is expected to
become more southwesterly as the week progresses. This is the
result of a deepening low pressure trough on the West Coast. Day
time temperatures will warm up into the middle to upper 90s across
The Lowlands. A few areas may get close to the 100 degree mark the
next couple of days.

By Friday...a building area of high pressure over Texas and a
deepening low off the West Coast will make the general flow
pattern more southerly over the state...which will allow moisture
back into the local area. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms as a result. This pattern is expected to be
persistent through the weekend and first part of next week.
Additional moisture from potential tropical storms may also be
fed into this southerly flow. There are differences between the
long range models on where this plume of moisture we be
located...ranging from Arizona to New Mexico. Best guess at this
time will be primarily eastern Arizona and portions of western
New Mexico generally west of the Rio Grande. Can not rule some
thunderstorm activity for eastern portions of the state as well.
Future model runs will further refine this developing pattern.

&&

Aviation...valid 02/00z-03/00z.
High pressure aloft over the region will weaken overnight and
Tuesday. This will allow drier southwest flow to overspread our
region and suppress thunderstorm activity Tuesday...even over the
mountains. For early this evening however...look for isolated mountain
-tsrags/wind vrb20g45kts/local visible 5sm/ceilings 060-080 through 01z. Isolated
lowland -tsrags/wind vrb25g55kts/local visible to zero sm in bldu/ceilings 100-120
through 03z. Elsewhere outside local storm outflows...winds light and
variable through 16z Tuesday. Winds increase and shift west
10-15 kts after 16z.

&&

Fire weather...

Gusty downburst winds to 50 miles per hour or more and dry lightning are the
main threats with storms through early this evening.

Strong afternoon heating will work with recycled moisture to
maintain development of isolated mountain and mainly lowland storms
into early this evening. Storms will track from west-northwest to
east-southeast around 5-10 miles per hour. The ridge will start to break down
beginning this evening...allowing deep southwest flow to overspread
New Mexico and far West Texas. This will allow for only flat
convection over the mountains Tuesday through Thursday...while
lowlands remain mostly clear of cumulus. We will also see breezy
southwest 20 feet winds each afternoon. Sustained winds over 20 miles per hour
will be confined along favored locations such as ridge-lines and
down east slopes of area mountains.

By middle week the upper level high builds to our southeast and
south...while another trough starts of dig south into California.
Mutual circulation around both features will strengthen the
southwest-southerly flow aloft over the region...providing a path
for sub tropical moisture fetch later in the week. Models continue
coming into better agreement in remnants ot two-east making it into the
region this weekend...however bulk of moisture looks to stream over
Arizona at this time. We will likely an uptick in storm activity as
soon as Friday over western zones.

Lowland min relative humidity rest of this afternoon will range from near 10% west
of the Continental Divide...to lower 20s east of the Rio Grande.
Readings near 30% are expected over highest elevations. Values fall
5-10 percent Tuesday...then another 10 percent Wednesday. Min relative humidity
should start to climb back up later in the week...especially west of
the Rio Grande. Mixing heights this afternoon will range from 11000
feet over the sacs...to 16000 feet over the bootheel. Values fall
roughly 2000 feet all areas Tuesday...then possibly another 1000 feet
Wednesday as a result of the strengthening winds aloft. Haines
indices 4-5 are expected this afternoon...climbing to 5-6 Tuesday
and remaining high through the week.

&&





&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 70 99 69 98 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 64 96 64 95 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 62 97 61 94 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 62 96 62 95 61 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 51 75 52 75 51 / 20 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 61 96 61 94 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
Silver City 56 86 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Deming 60 97 57 95 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 60 96 57 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
west El Paso metropolitan 69 99 69 97 68 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dell City 63 99 62 97 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 67 100 67 99 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 64 93 65 91 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
Fabens 65 99 66 98 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 65 98 64 96 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 66 96 65 95 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 60 96 58 94 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
Hatch 61 97 59 96 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
Columbus 65 97 63 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 66 97 66 95 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 56 82 57 82 57 / 20 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 53 83 54 83 54 / 20 0 0 0 0
Timberon 54 82 55 82 55 / 20 0 0 0 0
Winston 53 86 52 86 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 58 94 56 93 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
spaceport 58 97 58 95 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 52 86 50 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hurley 56 90 53 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
cliff 55 93 53 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 48 91 45 90 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Faywood 58 91 56 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Animas 60 96 59 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hachita 59 97 56 95 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 58 96 57 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 58 92 55 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

04/22 lundeen/Tripoli

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