Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
325 PM MDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Synopsis...
a wetter pattern is developing for much of this week...especially
toward the end of the work week. Southerly flow aloft has brought in
significant moisture and this moisture will remain trapped under
high pressure...which is in the process of moving back over New
Mexico. Thunderstorms will remain mostly isolated through Wednesday
but still could produce heavy downpours and minor flooding. Cool
front pushes in Wednesday night and Thursday and should increase
thunderstorm activity Thursday into the weekend. With abundant
moisture remaining...threat of heavy rain and flooding will
increase.

&&

Discussion...
with inverted trough now over southern portion of Arizona/New Mexico
border...deep southerly flow has developed and brought up moisture.
Tpw product shows precipitable waters have climbed to 1.4" to 1.5" this afternoon.
The eastern County Warning Area had to battle leftover cloudiness from last night's
storms but skies have scattered out and with convective temperatures around
90 degree...cu/tcu are finally starting to develop. Should be fairly
active convective night tonight though still think favored area is
west of Deming as weak synoptic lift persists associated with upper
trough. With precipitable waters of 150%-160% of normal...any storm has the
potential for heavy rain and localized flooding.

Tuesday/Wednesday...upper high over the Texas Panhandle migrates
back over New Mexico and eastern Arizona. This will initially
provide some capping and inhibit some convection...but much moisture
remains trapped under the high. In fact GFS shows precipitable waters remaining
around 1.3" to 1... for occasional drier intrusions into
the northern County Warning Area. Mountains should still thrive with these
conditions and the orographic boost...so kept them in scattered
thunderstorm coverage.

Thursday through Saturday...back door cool front moves in late
Wednesday night and Thursday. This will replenish low level moisture
and likely provide a focusing boundary for convection. Increased
probability of precipitation all areas into scattered category...may need to go higher. With
precipitable waters remaining around 150% of normal...flash flooding will be a
major concern.

Sunday and Monday...GFS showing east flow aloft as upper high lifts
to northern New Mexico. Moisture likely gets nudged west with
thunderstorm coverage in the east on the wain. European model (ecmwf) not really
definitive on clearing the east...but tailored the grids toward the
GFS none the less.

&&

Aviation...valid 29/00z - 30/00z...
mainly VFR through the period. P6sm few-sct080-120 sct-bkn200-250.
The Sacramento Mountains and areas west of the Continental Divide will
have scattered-numerous thunderstorms with 1/2sm +tsra bkn020-060
and winds g50kts or stronger.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure aloft has shifted east into central Texas. This will
allow weak upper level disturbances to move north across our area
this evening and tonight...triggering scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Areas west of the Continental Divide and in the
Sacramento Mountains will have scattered to numerous showers and storms
this evening into tonight...while the rest of the area will have
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is likely
this evening into tonight and there is the potential for flash
flooding...especially across the Silver fire and other recent burn
scars. Showers and thunderstorms will be a little less active
tomorrow as that upper level high drifts southwest into northern
Mexico...but will ramp up again Wednesday as an upper level trough
and associated front sweep in from the northeast. Minimum humidity
from the middle 20s to middle 30s over The Lowlands and around 10 points
higher in the mountains Tuesday...then a little lower Wednesday. Haines
indices very low (2 or 3) Tuesday and 3 or 4 (very low or low)
Wednesday with light winds and temperatures near normal.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 77 95 78 98 75 / 20 10 20 20 20
Sierra Blanca 74 90 75 94 72 / 20 10 20 20 40
Las Cruces 71 93 72 97 71 / 20 10 20 20 20
Alamogordo 72 94 73 98 70 / 10 30 20 20 40
Cloudcroft 49 68 51 70 48 / 30 40 20 40 50
Truth or Consequences 70 92 71 96 68 / 30 20 20 20 20
Silver City 62 86 63 90 60 / 40 40 30 20 30
Deming 71 93 72 97 69 / 30 20 20 20 20
Lordsburg 70 92 71 96 68 / 40 40 20 20 20
west El Paso metropolitan 76 95 77 99 74 / 20 10 20 20 20
Dell City 68 94 69 97 66 / 20 10 20 20 50
Fort Hancock 74 97 75 100 72 / 20 10 20 20 30
Loma Linda 68 87 67 91 65 / 20 10 20 20 30
Fabens 74 96 75 99 72 / 20 10 20 20 20
Santa Teresa 72 94 74 98 71 / 20 10 20 20 20
White Sands hq 73 92 74 96 71 / 20 10 20 20 20
Jornada range 67 94 69 98 65 / 20 10 20 20 20
Hatch 69 93 70 97 67 / 20 20 20 20 20
Columbus 71 93 72 97 69 / 20 20 20 20 20
Orogrande 71 95 72 99 69 / 20 10 20 20 40
Mayhill 60 77 61 80 58 / 30 40 20 40 50
Mescalero 57 79 58 82 55 / 30 40 20 40 50
Timberon 56 77 57 80 54 / 30 40 20 30 50
Winston 61 83 62 86 59 / 40 50 30 40 30
Hillsboro 69 88 68 92 66 / 30 30 20 20 20
spaceport 70 92 71 96 68 / 20 10 20 20 20
Lake Roberts 56 85 57 88 54 / 40 40 40 40 30
Hurley 62 86 61 90 59 / 40 30 30 20 20
cliff 63 88 63 92 60 / 40 40 30 20 20
Mule Creek 59 89 59 93 56 / 40 40 30 20 20
Faywood 66 88 65 92 63 / 40 30 20 20 20
Animas 70 93 73 97 70 / 40 40 20 20 20
Hachita 69 93 70 97 67 / 40 40 20 20 20
Antelope Wells 72 93 73 97 70 / 40 40 20 20 20
Cloverdale 64 88 63 92 61 / 40 30 20 20 20

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

Hefner/park

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations