Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Eureka California
550 PM PDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014
Synopsis...an approaching cold front will slide across the region
from the northwest to the southeast tonight. This will bring rain to northwest
California and strong gusty mountain winds to the coastal ranges
of del norte and northern Humboldt counties. A steady stream of
moisture will follow into the weekend.
Update...winds continue to increase over the coastal waters with
gusts now exceeding 35 knots at buoy 27 off of Crescent City. High
resolution model data suggests winds will continue to increase
over the northern interior waters with gale force gusts expected
over the next 6-9 hours. Thus the Small Craft Advisory has been
upgraded to a Gale Warning for the northern inner waters for
Also closely monitoring gusts along the del norte coast where the
winds may reach Wind Advisory criteria for a brief period just
ahead of the front. Will hold off on issuing an advisory for
now...but gusty winds will be the rule through the evening along
coastal areas north of Cape Mendocino. Rpa
Previous discussion......issued at 339 PM PDT...
Discussion...warm frontal rain on and off in cec this afternoon.
H2ov imagery still showing a nice atmospheric river pointed at the
north coast which will bring well needed rainfall to most of
northwest California overnight and through the morning hours. A bit of
uncertainty still resides for Friday as models maintain some
frontal action near the Orca border but lifts it to the north and
leaves the County Warning Area mainly dry. But models still in good agreement with
cold frontal rain across the region late Friday into Sat. Overall
look for a wet few days with strong winds in the mountains. Snow
levels will remain rather high, 6kft+, with limited snow
accumulation expected on the highest peaks. Rain will transition
to showers across northwest California Saturday night behind a
cold front...as a Post frontal trough and associated cold pool
move over the area. Moist northwest flow looks to continue into Sunday
with showers persisting...before ridging begins to build over the
region Monday drying things out. Cooler temperatures are expected
for the weekend with a trough over the area. Another frontal system
looks to impact northwest California Tuesday into Wednesday. As
can be expected almost a week out in time...the models differ in
timing and strength of the front and precipitation amounts
associated with it. The GFS is quicker with the onset of rain and
wetter...compared to the European model (ecmwf). Bfg/jt/stp
Aviation...mostly cloudy to cloudy skies covered much of
northwest California. An approaching cold front will impact the
region...especially along the far north West Coast tonight. Cec
Airport reported intermittent light rain into the late morning.
But should remain VFR into afternoon. Winds were also
consistently gusty. Elsewhere...rain has basically been slow to
arrive but will reach the coast tonight... rain...wind and lower
ceilings/visible will increase as the cold front steadily treks towards
the area...and then spread south and inland during the early
Marine...southerly winds have increased in advance of an
approaching cold front. The frontal system is increasing steep waves
across the waters. Additionally a large westerly long period swell
will be propagating across the waters. Southerly winds and the seas
will diminish briefly Thursday night. However seas will remain
elevated through the weekend. Southerly winds will increase Friday
night and Saturday as a cold front approaches the area. Gale
warnings will likely be necessary across the northern outer waters
Saturday and possibly across the southern outer waters. Winds and
seas will be higher across the outer waters.
Northwest California coastal waters...
Gale Warning until 3 am PDT Thursday for pzz450-470.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PDT Thursday for pzz455.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 am PDT Sunday for pzz475.
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