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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Eureka California
458 am PST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Synopsis...dry weather and unseasonably cold temperatures will
persist through the weekend.


Short term (today through sunday)...temperatures will remain
unseasonably cold over the next few days as the cold air mass
remains stationed over the region. Daytime temperatures will be in
the 40s and 50s through the remainder of the week with overnight
temperatures falling in the 20s and 30s. Temperatures tonight should
be similar to last night with offshore winds keeping coastal
temperatures a degree or two warmer but still in the 30s. Winds
along the Mendocino coast should be lighter thus a hard freeze watch
was issued for zone 2 starting tonight with temperatures in Anderson
Valley falling in the upper 20s and low 30s. A cutoff low will
undercut the ridge offshore and become absorbed into the low centered
over the Great Basin. This should not result in any rain over
northern California but will rather transition the offshore
flow wind pattern to more southerly this weekend. Kml

Long term (monday through thursday)...models continue to struggle
to come into agreement for the first half of next week. As such have
left the temperature forecast similar to the ongoing forecast. The
pop forecast on the other hand I adjusted downward again. While
models continue to show a low off the coast, there is significant
variance in solution of the placement. The GFS continues to be fast
and robust bringing the low in while the ec is less progressive and
slides the low south. With this split in solutions, have opted to
bring probability of precipitation back to near climatology for the first half of the week. By the
middle of the week deterministic runs have precipitation over northwest cal, so
have maintained probability of precipitation over climatology. Overall, it looks like southeast flow will
dominate the first half of next week with warmer temps, higher snow
levels, and gusty mountain winds. We'll see how models converge on a
solution over the coming days. Bfg


Aviation...valley fog inland will dissipate with daytime mixing by
the late morning hours then VFR should prevail through the taf
period. Kml


Marine...northerly conditions are subsiding rapidly this morning
with buoys reporting seas in the 7 to 9 foot range. Models continue
to show seas heights around 8 to 10 feet farther offshore, so have
left the small craft advisories in place for the outer waters. These
will drop off a little later this morning. Surface high pressure
across interior cal and an inverted surface trough just off the
coast will establish itself over the next few days causing offshore
flow to dominate the wind pattern for the coastal waters. Offshore
flow will remain in place through Saturday. This type of pattern
allows for limited local wave development. So for the next few days
the sea state will be dominated by northwesterly swell of about 3 to
5 feet at 15 seconds. Another swell will build in late in the weekend
into next week with heights reaching to around 11 to 14 feet. The
first half of next week will bring southeasterly winds to the
waters. The strength of these winds will be dependent upon where
approaching low pressure tracks. While confidence is high in the
forecast for the next couple of days, confidence falls sharply in
the wind forecast for the first half of next week. Overall, look for
easing conditions today into Friday then building conditions again
for the first half of the week. Bfg


Eka watches/warnings/advisories...
hard freeze warning until 8 am PST this morning for caz001-002.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 am this morning to noon PST today
for caz001.

Hard freeze watch from late tonight through Friday morning for

Northwest California coastal waters...
coastal Flood Advisory from 10 am this morning to noon PST today
for pzz410.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 am PST this morning for pzz470-475.



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