Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Eureka California
437 am PDT Friday may 24 2013
Synopsis...a trough over the West Coast will bring cool
temperatures and northwest winds to northwest California today. A
series of disturbances passing through the trough should bring
showers to locations mainly north of Cape Mendocino Saturday and
Sunday. Rain is expected on Monday followed by showers through the
middle of next week.
&&
Discussion...satellite shows clouds over most of Humboldt, del
norte, and Trinity counties. Drizzle was being reported in Eureka,
but radar was not picking it up since it was so shallow. Expect
patchy drizzle into this morning before skies clear. Additionally,
temperatures across Trinity County are not as cold as originally
forecast, probably due to the high clouds passing over the area.
As a result, dropped the frost advisory for zone 4. Temperatures
are in the 30s and 40s across Mendocino County. Some frost may
develops in some of the coldest valleys, but areal coverage was
not enough to warrant a frost advisory. Expect skies to clear and
temperatures to warm up today, but they should remain a few
degrees below normal. Temperatures tonight should be a few degrees
warmer, so widespread frost is not expected. Things go downhill
from there as a series of disturbances pass through the trough
this weekend. Expect showers north of Orick on Saturday with some
more showers over the higher terrain across the interior. Saturday
night into Sunday should see the showers increase in areal
coverage, with showers expected north of Mendocino County. Probability of precipitation
are the highest along the California/or border, gradually decreasing to
the south. Perhaps up to 0.25 inch may occur in the showers near
the California/or border both of these days, decreasing as one heads
south. Monday is the wettest day of the Holiday weekend as an
unseasonably strong front moves through, bringing widespread rain
to northwest California. Models are generally in good agreement
with the timing, location, and amounts so bumped up probability of precipitation a lot to
reflect this. A 0.25 inch across the entire area is possible on
Monday. The rain transitions to showers Monday night and then
continues through the middle of next week with probability of precipitation gradually
lowering to slightly above climatology as we approach day 7. Will also
need to monitor the thunderstorm potential across Trinity County
on Sunday, but confidence is marginal.
&&
Aviation...after brief period of MVFR ceilings with light rain
showers early this morning at coastal taf sites...mostly VFR
conditions are expected. /Sec
&&
Marine...a brief tightening of the pressure gradient between high
pressure west of the area and a low pressure trough over northwest California will
lead to low end Small Craft Advisory conditions over the outer
waters S of cape mendo late this afternoon into early Sat morning.
Otherwise...sub-advisory criteria expected for the weekend. S
winds are expected to increase early next week ahead of an
approaching frontal system. /Sec
&&
Eka watches/warnings/advisories...
California...none.
Northwest California coastal waters...
Small Craft Advisory for pzz475.
&&
$$
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