Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Eureka California
821 PM PST Friday Nov 27 2015
Synopsis...dry and unseasonably cold weather will persist
through the weekend. A period of light rain will be possible
during the day Monday.
Update...current temperatures are averaging 2 to 3 degrees colder
than last night at this time in the coastal zones. This...coupled
with the fact that thicknesses are slightly lower tonight and
offshore flow will be quite a bit lighter...should lead to more
widespread hard freeze conditions (<=29 degree for 2 or more hours).
As a result...will be issuing a hard freeze warning for the
coastal zones. See detailed hazards map online for outline of
expected hard freeze. /Sec
Previous discussion......issued at 323 PM...
Discussion...a fairly deep upper level low continues to sit over
the Great Basin with an Omega block of the high pressure sitting
over the Pacific northwest. This continues to bring cool and dry
conditions to nwca this afternoon. A fairly robust but small low
is undercutting the high pressure...but this is prognosticated to stay
west and south of nwca and get absorbed into the low over the
Great Basin. In general this pattern persists through the weekend.
Offshore winds look to weaken slightly tonight allowing some
places to cool a bit more tonight than last night.
Sunday night into Monday models are showing a cold front plowing
into the ridge in the Pacific northwest. This front mainly dissipates as
it arrives...but some light rain is expected especially near the
coast and over the coastal mountains if any precipitation makes it into
eastern Trinity County there could be some light snow in the
valleys due the cold dry air in place there now.
Tuesday looks mainly dry before the pattern starts to shift by the
middle of the week. A couple of fairly strong systems look to move
into the area for middle to late week. At this point they look
fairly warm...but as was mentioned in the previous discussion the
details and exact timing of the systems remain sketchy. Although
confidence is low on the details...confidence is reasonable that
we will shift to a wetter pattern by late next week. Mkk
Aviation...VFR conditions and light winds to calm conditions
will continue at kcec, kacv and kuki through Saturday with clear
Marine...light winds and low seas will continue across the
waters tonight. A high pressure system will strengthen across the
west central United States the next few days. A strong low
pressure system is located across the northeastern Pacific Ocean
near Alaska. The combined effects of these two systems will
increase the pressure gradient across the waters this weekend and
early next week.
California...hard freeze warning from midnight tonight to 8 am Sat
Northwest California coastal waters...none.
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