Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Eureka California
352 am PST Sat Jan 31 2015
Synopsis...dry weather will continue through Saturday as high
pressure remains over the region. A weak weather system will
bring a chance of light rain to areas north of Highway 299 Monday
and Tuesday. A very wet pattern may be in store for the following
Discussion...mainly clear skies are being observed across the
region early this morning. Some patchy ground fog is also evident
along the coast and likely across many of the coastal and interior
valleys as morning lows dip into the 30s and lower 40s. High and
middle level clouds...associated with a low pressure system currently
west of 140w...will move over the ridge on Sunday. The models
continue to show a weakening front approaching the far north
coast...del Norte County...during the day on Sunday. The models
continue to show the front washing out along the coast by
afternoon. Still not confident this front will generate much...if
any...rain in the warm air advection ahead of the surface
boundary. The front will be moving into a strong ridge and suspect
the rain amounts the models have are overdone. Stronger low level
Theta-E advection should develop Sun night into Monday with fairly
decent onshore flow north of cape mendo. If we are going to see
any rain...late Sun night and Monday look to be our best
opportunity as new surface front develops and heads toward the
north coast. Precipitation chances have been beefed up here...mainly
along the north coast and over interior del Norte County. On Wednesday
a warm front should lift northward out of the area as the flow
aloft amplifies in advance of what looks to be a potent storm
system. This storm is slated to affect northwest cal Thursday night into Friday.
The GFS and European model (ecmwf) both drive a wet frontal system into northwest
cal...producing bouts of moderate to heavy rain. The 12z GFS has
several inches of rain accumulating Thursday into Sat. The European model (ecmwf) was
equally wet and bullish with the rain. Given the 2nd day in a row
now where both models are still indicating the very wet pattern
have increased probability of precipitation to high likely from Friday through Sunday.
Aviation...VFR to MVFR conditions will continue at kcec and kacv
through the early morning. The lower conditions will occur as patchy
fog reduces visibilities and/or ceilings at times. VFR conditions
will continue at kuki today with light winds to calm conditions
occurring. Winds will remain light to moderate at kcec and kacv and
light to calm at kuki today.
Marine...an offshore high pressure ridge and thermal low pressure
trough across California will gradually weaken the next few days.
Subsequently the winds and seas will diminish. Seas will increase
early next week as a long period westerly swell traverses the
waters. Southerly winds will increase Wednesday as a cold front
approaches the northwestern United States coast.
Northwest California coastal waters...
Small Craft Advisory until 9 am PST this morning for pzz470-475.
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