Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Eureka California
342 am PDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Synopsis...high pressure offshore will maintain dry weather
conditions through the weekend. Parts of the coast will continue
to see low clouds and fog each night and morning.

&&

Discussion...high pressure over the eastern Pacific will maintain
dry and stable weather conditions across northwest cal the next several
days. Coastal stratus and fog will regenerate each night and
morning. For the most part the stratus and fog will mix out each
afternoon. However...pesky little vortices trapped in the boundary
layer near the coastline will make complete clearing
difficult...with clearing along the immediate coast less likely
south of Cape Mendocino. An upper level trough over the Pacific northwest
will move into the northern Great Basin today. The main impact
will be slight cooling across the interior as 850mb decrease a tad
and afternoon westerly winds develop sooner. Models were in decent
agreement with the trough aloft progressing eastward this weekend,
allowing high pressure over the NE Pacific to edge closer to the
coast. Additional perturbations will drop down in north-northwest flow
aloft...but overall this does not look to have much of an impact
on sensible weather. We should see more warming and perhaps more
offshore flow north of the cape this weekend. Going into next week
the models have been fairly consistent showing additional warming
with slightly higher temperatures through middle week. Short wave
features in dry north-northwest flow will keep the ridge at Bay...with
moderate warming expected for the interior through middle week.

&&

Aviation...a shortwave moving into the Pacific northwest has
brought a return of stratus to the immediate coast. With this push
of stratus expect the coastal airports will struggle to clear out
until middle to late afternoon. This shortwave will pass to the east
of the this afternoon. The increased subsidence and offshore flow
will likely bring more clearing this evening. There will likely be
some clouds along the mediate coast tonight...but these should
clear quickly Saturday morning with the offshore flow. Mkk

&&

Marine...an upper level shortwave moving into the Pacific
northwest has weakened the gradient this morning and winds are
mainly in the 5 to 15 knots range. The strongest winds are in the
southern outer waters. Waves remain in the 3 to 5 feet range. This
afternoon the shortwaves starts push inland the northerly winds
increase. Started a Small Craft Advisory for the northern outer
waters...however held off on starting the inner waters. Seas will
be marginal tonight...however models have been overdoing the seas
a bit so have held off on issuing the advisory. Seas will remain
elevated through Saturday before diminishing on Sunday as another
shortwave moves down from the north and breaks up the gradient.
Monday will see a bit of a rebound before winds diminish again for
the middle of the week.

There is also a southerly swell moving into the area from a
tropical system off the West Coast of Mexico. Current buoy
observations are showing nearly 1 foot at 12 to 14 seconds. Buoys
to the south of area such the pt Reyes offshore buoy is showing
3ft at 13 seconds out of the south. This expected to push north
into our area bringing waves up to around 2 to 4 feet at 12 to 14
seconds. This wave is expected to persist through much of the
week. This will create stronger the typical currents and breakers
in the south facing beaches...harbors and coves. Mkk

&&

Eka watches/warnings/advisories...

California...none.

Northwest California coastal waters...

Small Craft Advisory from pzz470-475.

&&

$$

Visit US at http://www.Weather.Gov/Eureka

Follow US on facebook and twitter at:
http://www.Facebook.Com/nwseureka
http://www.Twitter.Com/nwseureka

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations