Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Eureka California
403 am PDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Synopsis...isolated showers will end across northwest
California this morning as a trough moves inland. Expect dry
weather late today through early next week due to a ridge building
over the West Coast. Interior temperatures will be above normal
Sunday and Monday...and then cool on Tuesday as the ridge moves


Discussion...morning radar shows isolated light showers across
northwest California. These are associated with a trough that is
currently moving inland. Expect these light showers to last
through the morning hours and then end by the afternoon as a ridge
of high pressure approaches from the Pacific. The ridge will build
over the West Coast late today through Monday, bringing dry
weather. As for temperatures, they will be their coldest tonight
as brisk northwest flow moves cooler air over our area. Frost is
possible late tonight into Sunday morning across the valleys of
Mendocino County and Trinity counties. However, the sky forecast
is highly uncertain. Partly/mostly cloudy skies may inhibit
temperatures from dropping too much and clear skies will allow
temperatures to drop. Went with the consmodel approach for
temperatures and skies, which equates to borderline temperatures,
partly cloudy skies, and patchy frost for only Mendocino County.
Trinity County would have more clouds. As a result of this
uncertainty, held off on issuing our 20th frost headline for this
Spring with this package. Temperatures will rise and be above
normal across the interior on Sunday and then rise even more on
Monday. Widespread valley temperatures in the 80s can be expected
on Monday. But temperatures will begin trending back downward
across the interior on Tuesday as the ridge shifts inland and a
trough approaches from the Pacific. Models are in good agreement
showing the trough moving over US late Wednesday into Thursday,
bringing cooler temperatures. However, no large weather systems
are currently expected with this trough at this time. As a result,
probability of precipitation remain slightly below climatology during this time period.
Temperatures reflect the consmodel.


Aviation...broken to overcast low clouds across much of the area this
morning. Ceilings have risen to 4-6k feet at kcec and kacv...but
lower ceilings persist at kuki where MVFR conditions continue.
Widespread rains have departed the kuki area...but a few light
showers may impact the Airport through sunrise. VFR ceilings should
return to kuki by late morning. Winds will be generally light
across the area...but a few northwest gusts to 15 kts are possible at
kuki during the late morning and early afternoon. /Sec


Marine...northwest swells are gradually subsiding early this morning.
However...extended the Small Craft Advisory through 6 am due to
lingering wave heights around 10 feet. Northwest-north winds will be generally
light across the area with a slight increase in speeds over the S
waters late this afternoon and this evening. Winds will shift to S
over the north waters on sun ahead of an approaching weak front. Winds
will become north again by Sun night and increase to near Small Craft
Advisory levels over the S offshore zone by Monday. Another front
will approach the area and weaken on Tuesday with winds dropping off
ahead of the front and north winds increasing again behind the front
Tuesday night and Wednesday with winds in excess of 20 knots over at least the
offshore waters. /Sec


Eka watches/warnings/advisories...


Northwest California coastal waters...

Small Craft Advisory for pzz450-455-470-475.



Visit US at http://www.Weather.Gov/Eureka

Follow US on facebook and twitter at:

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations