Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Eureka California
400 am PDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014
Synopsis...dry conditions will continue across the region this
week. Offshore flow will occur overnight and the early morning
which will move smoke from the Happy Camp complex toward the
coast. Temperatures will increase Wednesday and Thursday.
Discussion...a low pressure trough will move into the area today
then an offshore high pressure ridge will strengthen in the wake
of the trough. The high pressure ridge combined with an inland
thermal trough will produce moderate winds and drier conditions
across the region the middle of this week. These conditions will
result in the temperatures increasing Wednesday and Thursday.
Slightly cooler temperatures will occur this weekend
Aviation...low clouds are expanding over the del norte offshore
waters and along the Mendocino coast...but taf sites have gotten by
unscathed so far. There are some low clouds over the Eel River
valley with kfot reporting bkn-ovc. Still expected some low
cloudiness at kacv and kcec by daybreak...but this may not be as
expansive as the past couple of days. Both the NAM and WRF indicate
low clouds may stick around the Humboldt Bay area today...but may
need to be a bit more optimistic in the next taf package for kacv
and kcec. Kuki remains clear...although cloud bank is expanding inland
over S Mendocino County. Will monitor progression for possible
inclusion of a scattered-broken low deck for a few hours early the morning.
Marine...the gradient between high pressure offshore the Pacific northwest
coast and a thermal trough over the California Mainland will tighten over the
next 36 hours. This will allow north winds to increase to solid gale
force over the offshore waters today. Have kept current headlines as
they are. The period of possible hazardous seas over the north near
shore waters looks to be short lived...so left the hazardous seas
watch in place. This will likely need to be upgraded or cancelled by
the afternoon package. The pressure gradient will relax fairly
rapidly Wednesday night as the thermal trough shifts toward the coast.
Northwest California coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory until 9 am PDT
Hazardous seas watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
Wednesday night pzz450.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 am PDT this morning pzz470.
Gale Warning from 9 am this morning to 8 am PDT Thursday pzz470.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 am PDT
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon pzz475.
Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 am PDT Thursday
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