Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Eureka California
441 PM PDT Friday Apr 18 2014
Synopsis...high pressure will bring dry weather followed by another
shot of light rain along the Redwood coast on Saturday. A stronger
storm system will impact northwest California with widespread rain
and mountain snow the first half of next week.
Discussion...another weak frontal system will graze the area on
Saturday with light precipitation expected...mainly across the Redwood
coast and north coast interior. Rainfall amounts will average less
than a tenth of an inch...mainly over del Norte County. Models
continue in good agreement with a digging trough over the west United
States during the first half of next week. This will bring a
better chance of widespread precipitation with rainfall totals of an inch
or more possible in the north terrain. Snow levels will fall
significantly with this system as it digs and shifts east...possibly
falling to as low as 3500ft by Wednesday. The GFS continues to indicate
the possibility of isolated thunder as well by Tuesday afternoon over
the Trinity horn with MUCAPES of around 300 j/kg and Li values
around -1. The GFS depicts deepest moisture departing around this
time with precipitable water values dropping below 1/2"...so
coverage and certainty don't warrant inclusion in grids as yet.
Will continue to highlight this storm system in the hazardous weather
Aviation...high pressure over the region should allow VFR to
prevail across most of the northwest California. Clouds may return to parts
of the coast overnight. Though, confidence in the timing and
location is low. Another storm system will bring low VFR to MVFR
conditions and -ra to areas north of cape mendo Sat.
Marine...moderate winds and seas will prevail tonight into
Saturday. A westerly swell generated from a strong low in the Gulf of
Alaska will build into the waters Saturday night, peak on Sunday,
then slow subside early next week.
Northwest California coastal waters...none.
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