Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Eureka California
229 am PDT Monday may 4 2015
Synopsis...an upper trough will shift over the Pacific northwest Monday
and then dive over Southern California late this upcoming week.
Mostly dry conditions should persist this week with a potential
thunderstorm over interior mountains Monday afternoon.
Temperatures should continue to be seasonal over the next few
Discussion...11-3.9 imagery showing a large bed of stratus
hanging along the coast early this morning. Given the light
onshore flow it looks like another somewhat gloomy day for
coastal residents with only some partial clearing expected late in
the afternoon. The upper trough will approach the north coast on
today and instability will increase but Standard convective
indices continue to be less than impressive and only isolated
thunderstorm development is possible over the highest terrain.
Flow will also be out of the west which typically is not a
favorable direction for enhanced development. The upper trough
will drift southward and position over Southern California by late
next week. Models indicate that this system will be pretty darn
dry with only a little precipitation expected but this is still
uncertain. Models still contain some run to run variability so
maintained the previously assigned climatology probability of precipitation to the extended
Aviation...MVFR to IFR conditions and light winds to calm
conditions will continue at kcec, kacv and kuki through this
morning. The lower conditions are due to reduced ceilings and/or
visibilities. MVFR to VFR conditions and light to moderate winds
will prevail at kcec and kacv today with the winds becoming moderate
and gusty during the afternoon. The lower conditions this afternoon
will be due to reduced ceilings. VFR conditions and light winds will
prevail at kuki late this morning and this afternoon.
Marine...winds and seas have diminished across the waters in
advance of a weak cold front which will move through the waters this
evening. Winds and seas will increase Tuesday and Wednesday as a
high pressure ridge strengthens across the region in the wake of the
frontal passage. Small craft advisories are likely across the
northern outer waters Tuesday through Friday due to the winds and/or
seas. Small craft advisories are likely across the southern near
shore waters Tuesday night through Thursday due to the winds and/or
seas. Small craft advisories are likely across the northern near
shore waters Thursday due to short period seas. Small craft
advisories will continue across the southern outer waters through
Friday due to the winds and seas.
Northwest California coastal waters...
Small Craft Advisory until 3 am PDT early this morning for
Small Craft Advisory until 3 am PDT Friday for pzz475.
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