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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Eureka California
758 PM PST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Synopsis...above normal temperatures will continue through the
week...with a modest cooling trend by Friday. Some patchy drizzle
is possible Wednesday morning along the del norte and Humboldt
coasts. Rain is likely across the north Friday and Friday
night...otherwise no significant additional precipitation is
expected through the weekend.


Update...high resolution models are indicating some drizzle or
light rain may develop along the Humboldt and del norte coasts
early Wednesday morning. Thus chances for precipitation have been
increased in these areas and drizzle has been introduced to the
forecast. Otherwise the forecast remain on track and the previous
discussion is below.


Previous discussion......issued at 325 PM PST...

Discussion...warm and dry conditions continue to prevail along
the West Coast as a persistent amplified ridge holds strong.
Temperatures today have been slightly cooler than yesterdays
record values as expected...but remain well above normal with
coastal readings in the low 60s to near 70...and Interior Valley
temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Relatively dense high
level cloud cover has also kept skies a bit more obscured this
afternoon...although it appears that these should clear prior to
sunset for a few hours along the coast.

Over the next several days...a longwave trough currently located
across the northern Pacific will gradually break down the West
Coast ridge...sending several shortwaves/cold fronts towards the
coast as it does. These fronts are all expected to weaken
significantly as they barrel into the ridge...and as a
result...meaningful accumulating rains are not expected until
Friday after the ridge has weakened substantially. Even
then...rainfall will be mostly limited to Humboldt and del norte
counties...with total accumulations not expected to reach one inch
by early Saturday morning. Until then...expect only very slim
chances of sprinkles near the coast tonight as the first front
draws near...and perhaps a few light showers across the interior
hills early Thursday as moisture increases ahead of the next
front. A brief and modest cool down is also expected Friday and
Saturday...however this will likely not even be enough to bring
temperatures below seasonal averages.

Beyond Friday...the upper ridge will begin to reassert itself
across the West Coast...with limited opportunities for meaningful
rain. On Sunday...a progressive shortwave will climb the top of
this ridge and impact the Washington/Oregon coast...however
impacts for our region will be limited to perhaps a brief period
of light rain along the Redwood coast and cloudy skies. Model
guidance continues to suggest that the ridge will finally break
down sometime during the middle of next week...however
uncertainties abound regarding the finer details at this early
juncture. /Brc

Aviation...VFR conditions will continue to prevail as ridging
aloft sits over the western part of the United
States...however...a frontal system off the coast will maintain
high clouds over the region. There is some uncertainty as to
whether or not haze or mist will return for the late afternoon and
evening hours along the coast or if offshore winds and high clouds
will prevent them from developing. Interior terminals will have a
chance at seeing patchy fog develop. Current thinking is that kuki
will see VFR conditions... it is possible for some of the valley
fog to creep into kuki which would reduce visby and ceilings...but
confidence is not very high in that happening. /Kar

Marine...winds will remain light to moderate through the week as
a broad ridge dominates over the West Coast. A westerly swell will
build across the waters Thursday and Friday resulting in hazardous
seas. Small craft advisories for hazardous seas will likely be
issued with seas expected to rise above 10 feet by Thursday afternoon and
evening. This swell will also bring an elevated threat for sneaker
waves as early as Wednesday night when the forerunners arrive. The
swell will build in magnitude on Thursday and then peak by early
Friday. Anyone planning to go to the beach needs to remain alert
and keep a watchful eye on the surf which may appear to be
tranquil and safe at times. The swell will subside over the
weekend...however increasing northerly winds will likely produce a
slight ramp up in short period seas by Sunday.


Eka watches/warnings/advisories...
Northwest California coastal waters...none.


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