Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Eureka California
317 am PST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
Synopsis...above normal temperatures will continue through the
week...with a modest cooling trend by Friday. Some patchy drizzle
is possible this morning along the del norte and Humboldt coasts.
Light rain is likely across the north Friday and Friday
night...otherwise no significant additional precipitation is
expected through the weekend.
Discussion...a weak frontal boundary approaching the coast this
morning will bring clouds to the area and possibly some drizzle
to the coast. The best chance for drizzle is on the Humboldt and
del Norte County coasts. Once this boundary moves through clouds
are expected to diminish...however another very weak boundary is
expected later in the afternoon and overnight. Again rainfall is
expected to be minimal with only a trace to a few hundredths.
Periods of light rain or drizzle are expected to continue into
Thursday. Most likely the only areas that will see any rain will
be along the Humboldt and del norte coasts.
Thursday night and Friday morning del Norte County could see some
rain...but amounts look to be less than a half of an inch.
Humboldt County could see some light rain...but amounts look to be
less than a tenth of an inch. Models continue to be in decent
agreement on this...although rainfall amounts vary and the GFS is
drier than the current forecast.
Saturday looks mainly dry as the ridge reasserts itself across the
area. Saturday night into Sunday a warm front is expected to build
in across the northern portion of the area. This will bring fairly
extensive clouds...but the rain is expected to be less than a
quarter of inch once again. Confidence is below average on this
as models tend to struggle with warm frontal precipitation a bit more
than other weather patterns.
Monday and Tuesday look generally dry...although the European model (ecmwf) has a
weak shortwave moving over the top of the ridge and bringing some
rain to coastal Oregon...but northern California remains dry at this time.
Middle to late week models are indicating the ridge will break down
and flow will become more zonal hinting at a return to a wetter
Aviation...VFR conditions prevailed early this morning, however,
visible satellite imagery showed a low cloud deck looming off the
northwest California coast. This could impact kcec and kacv
through the morning hours dropping airfield conditions to MVFR
possibly IFR. 925 mb Omega model data supports this showing areas
of lift especially over del Norte County through the middle morning.
Confidence is not high with these low ceilings but anything that
does impact the north coast should lift with afternoon mixing with
mostly VFR conditions expected this afternoon. Middle and upper level
clouds will increase tonight with the approach of a weak frontal
boundary which will bring some possible drizzle this evening. Kml
Marine...winds will remain light to moderate through the week as
a broad ridge dominates over the West Coast. A westerly swell will
build across the waters Thursday and Friday resulting in large
seas around 12 to 14 feet. Small craft advisories for hazardous seas
will likely be issued with seas expected to rise above 10 feet by
Thursday afternoon and evening. This swell will also bring an elevated
threat for sneaker waves as early as Wednesday night when the
forerunners arrive. The swell will build in magnitude on Thursday and
then peak by early Friday. Anyone planning to go to the beach
needs to remain alert and keep a watchful eye on the surf which
may appear to be tranquil and safe at times. The swell will
subside over the weekend...however increasing northerly winds will
likely produce a slight ramp up in short period waves by Sunday.
Northwest California coastal waters...none.
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