Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Eureka California
140 PM PDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014
Synopsis...an upper level trough over the Pacific northwest will
continue to bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area
tonight and tomorrow. High pressure building at the end of the week
will bring a warming and drying trend to the interior.
Discussion...cumulus clouds are developing over the inland areas of
the Eureka County warning area this afternoon...especially over Trinity County...but
no thunderstorms yet. Expect some to develop later this afternoon
though. Some of the storms may produce small hail and heavy rain.
The thunderstorms will dissipate this evening.
A long wave trough offshore will continue to dig as it approaches
the coast...and it will push a cold front onshore Wednesday
morning. This will bring a slight chance of rain to coastal areas
from Cape Mendocino north. Amounts will be light.
Once that front moves onshore...things will dry out in a hurry as
offshore flow develops Wednesday night. This will bring a return
of hot and dry weather over the inland areas which will last into
Aviation...based on 22/18z tafs. A mix of sun and clouds for
terminals this afternoon as a weak disturbance slides through the
region. Kcec/kacv will be mainly IFR to MVFR through the day. Ceilings
may lift to VFR for a few hours this afternoon...but expect lower
ceilings to return overnight. A front will approach the region overnight
bringing a chance of precipitation toward the end of the taf period
early Wednesday. Kuki will generally be VFR through the period with
passing cumulonimbus ceilings this afternoon and evening. Confidence is medium.
Marine...an upper trough digging toward the western United States
this afternoon continues to cause a weak surface pressure gradient
over the northwest cal coastal waters. This is allowing for light winds
and low seas. Observations this morning indicate weak southerly
flow. This is preceding a weak front which models have limping
across the area Wednesday. Behind this front high pressure will
again build toward the coastal waters bringing a return of strong
north winds and steep seas beginning on Thursday and lasting into
Northwest California coastal waters...none.
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