Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Eureka California
145 PM PDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014
Synopsis...high pressure offshore will maintain dry weather
conditions through the weekend. Areas along the coast will
continue to see night and morning low clouds and fog.
Discussion...high pressure over the eastern Pacific will maintain
dry and stable weather conditions across northwest cal the next several days.
Coastal stratus and fog will regenerate each night and for the most
part mix out each afternoon. Pesky little vortices trapped in the
boundary layer near the coastline will make complete clearing
difficult...especially south of the cape.
An upper trough will develop over the Pacific northwest on Thursday and then dig
into the northern Great Basin on Friday. This should bring slight
cooling to the interior as well as gusty west and northwest winds
to the higher elevations on Friday. The cooling and increase in winds
should lift up the marine layer and perhaps wipe out the small
scale eddies trapped near the coastline.
Models were in decent agreement with the trough aloft progressing
eastward this weekend allowing high pressure over the NE Pacific to
build closer to the coast. This will result in some warming aloft
and better chances for east to northeast wind flow near mean sea
level. Current indications are for high pressure to continue to
build over the area early to middle next week. Right now the warming
does not look to be very extreme or out of the Ordinary. However I
will edge temperatures up a few degrees above the consensus.
Aviation....MVFR to IFR conditions and light to moderate winds will
continue at kcec through this afternoon. VFR conditions and light to
moderate winds will persist at kacv through this afternoon. Stratus
will move into coastal areas late this evening and overnight
reducing ceilings to IFR conditions at kcec and kacv. Patchy fog
will also reduce visibilities at kcec and kacv early Thursday
morning. Light winds to calm conditions will occur overnight at kcec
and kacv. VFR conditions and light winds to calm conditions will
continue at kuki the next few days.
Marine...an offshore high pressure ridge interacting with an inland
thermal low pressure trough will increase the northerly winds and
short period seas across the waters the next few days. A low
pressure trough will move north of the area Thursday and Friday
allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds and seas to
diminish briefly. The winds and seas will increase this weekend as
the offshore high pressure ridge strengthens and interacts with the
inland low pressure trough. A long period southwesterly swell will
persist through this weekend. The winds and seas will be higher
across the outer waters.
Northwest California coastal waters... Small Craft Advisory until
4 PM PDT Saturday pzz450-455-470-475.
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