Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Eureka California
259 am PDT Sat Mar 28 2015
Synopsis...mostly clear skies and dry weather conditions are
expected this weekend. Another weak front will bring another
chance for rain to areas primarily north of Mendocino County
Monday night into Tuesday.
Discussion...the front that brought some light rain to areas from
Cape Mendocino north last evening has moved inland with drier air
now filtering in over northwest California. The front was slightly
stronger than originally thought resulting in a complete scouring
out of the marine layer. Thus skies are now anticipated to be mostly
clear today with some cumulus over the mountains across the
interior. The atmosphere should be stable enough today to not allow
showers to develop and a dry forecast has been maintained.
Dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures are expected on
Sunday as a ridge rebuilds over the West Coast. Once again
temperatures may make a run for 80f in interior Mendocino County.
Most of Monday will also remain dry before the next system moves
into the region Monday evening/night. Stratus may redevelop along
the coast Sunday night resulting in less sunshine along the coast on
The majority of the upper level energy with the Monday night system
will travel into the Pacific northwest. However the southern edge of
the system will clip our region resulting in a brief period of rain
for areas primarily north of Mendocino County. Rainfall will likely
range for a trace in southern Humboldt to possible near a half inch
in the mountains of del Norte County as the front sweeps through.
The models become less consistent beyond Tuesday with the European model (ecmwf)
indicating several waves of upper level energy moving into Oregon
resulting in periods of showers for areas north of Cape Mendocino
through Wednesday. The GFS is significantly drier with the majority
of the systems moving into Washington and Oregon. However both
models indicate snow levels falling to 4-5k feet. Have opted to make
only minor adjustments to the chances for precipitation in the
forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday at this time considering the
Upper level ridging will likely build back over the West Coast
Thursday through early Saturday. With very dry air the stronger low
level inversions overnight beneath the ridge may allow for cold air
to pool in Interior Valley locations. The growing season will resume
for zone 3...interior Humboldt and interior del norte counties...on
April 1st. Thus frost advisories/freeze warnings will become a
possibility for the interior except for Trinity County where the
growing season does not resume until April 15th. /Rpa
Aviation...VFR conditions and light winds to calm conditions
will continue at kacv and kuki through this evening. VFR to MVFR
conditions and light winds to calm conditions will continue at kcec
through the early morning. The lower conditions are due to lower
ceilings. VFR conditions will prevail at kcec later this morning
through this evening.
Marine...a high pressure system will strengthen across the region
today in the wake of a weak cold front which moved through the area
Friday evening. Northerly winds and seas will increase today and Sunday.
Seas will remain elevated through the middle of the week. Winds and seas
will be higher across the southern waters. Therefore a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect across the southern waters through Sunday
Northwest California coastal waters...
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT Sunday for pzz455.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT Sunday for pzz475.
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