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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
602 am CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Discussion...
issued at 403 am CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in
the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve
around the heat. The second concern will revolve around
precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the
severe potential surrounding them.

Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to
range between 24c-28c. Providing we can mix up to that layer that
will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats
(other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud
cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east
across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into
eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the low level jet veers. Of some
concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the
hrrr/rap hold it together long enough to move into our local area
providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered
temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still
reside in the 102-107 range across the western County Warning Area where a heat
advisory is in place from 1pm to 8pm. The second caveat will be the
potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first
possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms
across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second
scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold
front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into
extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either
scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500j/kg of
cape will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and
strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential
to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats.

The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as
an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada
into the upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into
the night time hours.

By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest
flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday
night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area
Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the
northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday
and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper
shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow.
Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will
keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 602 am CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conds will continue the taf period with sct-bkn high clouds
through the afternoon. The main concern for aviators will come this
evening as a cold front approaches and thunderstorms develop out
ahead of it. Models continue to develop thunderstorms east of the
terminals so have not included a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention in the taf at this time
however did introduce sct cu btn 4-5kft this evening. The winds will
be out of the SW around 10kts at today becoming light and variable
this evening as the front approaches. Frontal passage will occur btn 03z-05z
with winds shifting to the north btn 5-10kts behind the front.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ksz025-057-060-102>105.

MO...heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for moz020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
aviation...73

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