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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
323 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

issued at 321 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Tonight through tuesday: northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over northwest mo)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday morning: the model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the County Warning Area. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: the specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the Arkansas/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1231 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.


Fire weather...
issued at 317 am CDT sun Mar 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...


fire weather...cdb

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