Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
550 am CDT Mon may 20 2013
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 335 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
For today and tonight, ongoing convection in southern Missouri and
Kansas is spreading cloud cover over the region this morning. This
cloud cover should move away and/or dissipate by late this morning
leading to a good recovery in instability for afternoon/evening
convection. The main question is where any boundary, either synoptic
or outflow, will be to initiate convection. That said, convection
looks to develop along the front which is forecast to be sliding
into northwestern Missouri by this afternoon. Convection could also
develop on any residual outflow boundaries by this afternoon but
with such a mess of a surface pattern right now it is difficult to
know where they may be by this afternoon. Models show winds to be
veered ahead of the main front which will limit the tornado
potential. Although surface winds could be backed some in the
vicinity of any outflow boundary locally enhancing the risk. Shear
will be ample enough for storm organization and likely supercell
structures so near-term mesoanalysis will again be crucial this
afternoon to locate any enhanced tornado risk area along any boundary.
Otherwise, the biggest threats look to be from large hail and
damaging winds. With the shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to
the boundary and winds nearly unidirectional, storms may more quickly
evolve into bowing segments or a convective system, thus enhancing
the wind threat. This orientation may also lead to a localized heavy
rain and flooding threat, particularly if storms train along our
southern counties where heavy rains fell tonight.
For Tuesday, there will remain a chance for storms as the main upper
trough/low continues to send embedded impulses through the region.
Moisture and instability may be enough so that afternoon storms can
not be ruled out at this time. But with winds continuing to be veered
there will be limited convergence along any boundary and thus a more
limited severe threat.
Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 335 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
Tuesday night into Sunday...the cold front will push through the
remainder of the County Warning Area Tuesday night, with only lingering chances for
thunderstorms across central Missouri. The upper low will begin to
move east of the area Wednesday into Thursday with the surface cold
front becoming stationary along the Interstate 40 corridor in OK and
Arkansas. High pressure will build into the western Great Lakes region
with mainly dry and cooler weather expected Wednesday night into
Thursday. The western portion of the surface front will begin
lifting back northward across the Central Plains by the end of the
work week. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across the
southwestern sections of the County Warning Area Friday into the weekend, closest to
the frontal boundary and better instability. A weak upper level
ridge will develop over the central Continental U.S. By the weekend with a few
upper waves rounding the ridge, resulting in a chance for convection
across portions of the County Warning Area. As for temperatures, readings will be
slightly below normal for the Wednesday through Friday before
returning to near normal levels for the weekend.
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 536 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
VFR conditions are expected through at least this morning with high
clouds from thunderstorms to our south moving out or dissipating.
Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon ahead of a slowly advancing
front, but there remains a good amount of uncertainty with just where
convection will develop and its timing into the terminals. So have
continued the thunderstorms in the vicinity group from this afternoon through late this
evening. Winds shift to the west and skies begin to clear tonight as
storms move east of the terminals after 1 am.
&&
Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&
$$
Short term...cdb
long term...Blair
aviation...cdb
