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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
600 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Discussion...
issued at 327 PM CST Monday Mar 2 2015

For tonight, strong warm and moist advection is expected to develop
which will lead to areas of light rain and drizzle over most of the
forecast area. The biggest challenge is how cool temperatures become
late this evening and early tonight across northern Missouri and
whether precipitation moves into that area with temperatures below
freezing. The latest thinking is that temperatures will fall into the
30 to 32 degree range in northern Missouri prior to midnight with a
chance for light precipitation to move into the area coinciding with
these sub- freezing temperatures. With the strong warm advection,
temperatures are expected to warm above freezing across northern
Missouri in the midnight to 6 am time frame. While this would
effectively end potential for freezing drizzle/rain, there is the
potential for light glazing in the far northeastern portions of the
forecast area. The other issue overnight is that forecast soundings show
a relatively deep mid-layer of dry air. This suggest that ice
crystals may have a difficult time reaching the lower saturated
level, meaning drizzle/freezing drizzle or very light rain/freezing
rain Wold be the most likely precipitation types. But there may be
enough lift to increase the potential of this dry layer to fill in
and thus increase the amount of precipitation. Overall, while this
looks like a minor impact event given the late night timing and
warming temperatures, feel a small Winter Weather Advisory is needed
for parts of northern and northeastern Missouri.

A nice warm up is expected for Tuesday ahead of the next front.
While it looks like it will be cloudy with showers around, strong
warm advection should yield temperatures in the upper 40s to lower
50s. A cold front will move through the area late in the day with
much cooler temperatures moving in late in the afternoon and
evening. As temperatures cool down behind the front, snow is
expected to develop across our far southern zones and into southern
Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, only a dusting is
expected as the heavier amounts should be well to the south of the
forecast area.

The remainder of the forecast, from Thursday through the weekend,
looks quiet at this point time. Temperatures look to be closer to
normal or above normal from Friday through Sunday. While the area
looks to return to a general northwest flow aloft regime, low-level
flow will generally be from the west to southwest, allowing for
warmer air aloft to advect into the region. This in turn should
allow the region to climb into the lower 50s Friday through Monday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 535 PM CST Monday Mar 2 2015

Conditions will begin to deteriorate as next wave of activity from
the south crosses into the area Monday evening. Associated
precipitation will remain light, though with warm air advection from
the south and existing snow cover, could see IFR conditions with
potential fog development. Increased winds will help to mitigate this
factor, so have included MVFR conditions for now, but will monitor
potential for IFR development. As surface temps cool, could see some
areas of freezing rain for kstj until midnight, at which point
temperatures will increase with warm air advection. Otherwise, winds
will veer through the period, while becoming gusting Tuesday morning.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am CST
Tuesday for moz007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

Discussion...cdb
aviation...Welsh

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